The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

And I would just like to say, that it remains frustrating that part of the triage critieria is not "was at an anti-masker rally yesterday"...those hateful spiteful people should NEVER be in an ICU ahead of someones loved ones who didn't intentionally indanger innocent people.

[ac3r]

[danbrotherston]

[tomh009]

This guy is saying the complete opposite...so I would personally wait on an official announcement rather than random Tweets:

Resources are definitely being consumed as he states, but it seems we're not yet at Level 3 despite Dr. Barb King stating otherwise.

Her statement may be misleading in that she listed the level 3 criteria, rather than the level 1 criteria, but he also contradicts himself.

"We are on the cusp"

"It is not to my knowledge imminent".

It's correct that they are publishing level 1/2/3 criteria. It's not correct that this is in place now, or even planned to be done immediately -- let alon jumping to level 3.

The hospital situation is serious enough already, I don't think there is any need to do additional fearmongering on top of the factual situation.

[ijmorlan]

And I would just like to say, that it remains frustrating that part of the triage critieria is not "was at an anti-masker rally yesterday"...those hateful spiteful people should NEVER be in an ICU ahead of someones loved ones who didn't intentionally indanger innocent people.

Normally, the medical profession avoids conditioning care on behaviour. For example, they treat lung cancer in a smoker (who almost certainly caused their own cancer) just as vigorously as prostate cancer (normally not much if at all influenced by behaviour). But if the medical system is overwhelmed as a direct result of certain individuals’ behaviour, it would be bizarre not to attempt to prioritize innocent victims over the perpetrators. Enough already.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-04-18

Waterloo Region reported 131 (!) new cases for today -- including 30 related to new outbreaks -- (20.9% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for a total of 68; 595 new cases for the week (+21), averaging 13.7% of active cases. 698 active cases, +81 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,215 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 7.25%, close to the provincial average, albeit with less intensive testing.

3,962 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 3,701. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-07-03 (-1 day).

Ontario reported "only" 3,469 new cases today with a seven-day average of 4,319 (-29). 3,369 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to an increase of only 78 active cases and a new total of 42,941. +7,101 active cases for the week and 175 deaths (25 per day). 40,596 tests for a positivity rate of 8.55%, slightly better than a week ago. The positivity rate is averaging 8.12% for the past seven days, compared to 7.21% for the preceding seven.

773 patients in ICU (+18 today, +147 for the week) and a total of 2,360 patients hospitalized (+538 for the week).

90,409 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 97,861. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-20 (+1 day). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 14 days (-1 today).

• 775 cases in Peel: 56.1 per 100K
  
• 256 cases in Durham: 39.6 per 100K
  
• 1,074 cases in Toronto: 36.7 per 100K
  
• 406 cases in York: 36.6 per 100K
  
• 130 cases in Halton: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 106 cases in Niagara: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Brant: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 197 cases in Ottawa: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Middlesex-London: 19.3 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 76 cases in Waterloo: 12.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Hamilton: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Lambton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Huron Perth: 4.1 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

No new records set today.

[nms]

CBC KW has created a graphic tracker that updates daily to breakdown the local public health COVID-19 statistics. (Note: this means that any numbers that I give here will not be the same if you click through the link on April 23, 24 or 25 etc). It's not clear from the data, but I don't know if these numbers include patients who were imported from overwhelmed hospitals elsewhere.

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 19, 2021 at 1:30pm:
43.8% of local cases are connected to the workplace
28.1% are connected to schools
9.4% are connected to licensed child care
9.4% are connected to congregate settings
3.1% are connected to hospitals
3.1% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
3.1% are connected to universities

Transmission type (cumulative):
44% (5855) Close contact
30% (3981) Community
24% (3232) Outbreak
2% (242) Travel

Cumulative To Date:
12,485 cases resolved
247 deceased
679 active cases
43 cases hospitalized

Age breakdown:
4% < 9 years of age
10% 10-19 years of age
24% 20-29 years of age
16% 30-39 years of age
14% 40-49 years of age
13% 50-59 years of age
8% 60-69 years of age
5% 70-79 years of age
4% 80-89 years of age
2% 90+ years of age

[danbrotherston]

CBC KW has created a graphic tracker that updates daily to breakdown the local public health COVID-19 statistics. (Note: this means that any numbers that I give here will not be the same if you click through the link on April 23, 24 or 25 etc). It's not clear from the data, but I don't know if these numbers include patients who were imported from overwhelmed hospitals elsewhere.

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 19, 2021 at 1:30pm:
43.8% of local cases are connected to the workplace
28.1% are connected to schools
9.4% are connected to licensed child care
9.4% are connected to congregate settings
3.1% are connected to hospitals
3.1% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
3.1% are connected to universities

Transmission type (cumulative):
44% (5855) Close contact
30% (3981) Community
24% (3232) Outbreak
2% (242) Travel

Cumulative To Date:
12,485 cases resolved
247 deceased
679 active cases
43 cases hospitalized

Age breakdown:
4% < 9 years of age
10% 10-19 years of age
24% 20-29 years of age
16% 30-39 years of age
14% 40-49 years of age
13% 50-59 years of age
8% 60-69 years of age
5% 70-79 years of age
4% 80-89 years of age
2% 90+ years of age

Thanks for posting.

That is abundantly clear, workplaces are THE problem.

[jeffster]

And I would just like to say, that it remains frustrating that part of the triage critieria is not "was at an anti-masker rally yesterday"...those hateful spiteful people should NEVER be in an ICU ahead of someones loved ones who didn't intentionally indanger innocent people.

Normally, the medical profession avoids conditioning care on behaviour. For example, they treat lung cancer in a smoker (who almost certainly caused their own cancer) just as vigorously as prostate cancer (normally not much if at all influenced by behaviour). But if the medical system is overwhelmed as a direct result of certain individuals’ behaviour, it would be bizarre not to attempt to prioritize innocent victims over the perpetrators. Enough already.

As much as I dislike the anti-maskers, and anti-vaccers for that matter, we still have to treat people equally when it comes to hospitalizations. Otherwise, you're going down a very slippery slope:

1) Someone who speeds vs someone that didn't.
2) A jaywalker.
3) Someone who's a heavy drinker.
4) Someone who's obese.
5) A smoker.
6) A drug addict.
7) Someone involved in higher risk activity (including sports like hockey, football, boxing).

Just to name a few. To add to that, doctors do take an oath.

As for these demonstrations against what the province is doing, and anti-maker rallies: something to keep in mind, these events are outdoor. There is very little evidence to suggest outdoor spread. For greater context, the Texas Rangers allowed for a full-house for the Toronto @ Texas home opener. Amount of covid from that game? Zero.

People are getting sick because they work a large factories and warehouses. You have illegal gathers. You have large families in single homes (Brampton). You have international travel for any reason, pleasure, business, or family and is 100% responsible for all the variants in Canada today.There are other reasons too, but their not from "holding an event outside" or skateboarding at a skate park, crowded dog parks, or whatever.

[danbrotherston]

Normally, the medical profession avoids conditioning care on behaviour. For example, they treat lung cancer in a smoker (who almost certainly caused their own cancer) just as vigorously as prostate cancer (normally not much if at all influenced by behaviour). But if the medical system is overwhelmed as a direct result of certain individuals’ behaviour, it would be bizarre not to attempt to prioritize innocent victims over the perpetrators. Enough already.

As much as I dislike the anti-maskers, and anti-vaccers for that matter, we still have to treat people equally when it comes to hospitalizations. Otherwise, you're going down a very slippery slope:

1) Someone who speeds vs someone that didn't.
2) A jaywalker.
3) Someone who's a heavy drinker.
4) Someone who's obese.
5) A smoker.
6) A drug addict.
7) Someone involved in higher risk activity (including sports like hockey, football, boxing).

Just to name a few. To add to that, doctors do take an oath.

As for these demonstrations against what the province is doing, and anti-maker rallies: something to keep in mind, these events are outdoor. There is very little evidence to suggest outdoor spread. For greater context, the Texas Rangers allowed for a full-house for the Toronto @ Texas home opener. Amount of covid from that game? Zero.

People are getting sick because they work a large factories and warehouses. You have illegal gathers. You have large families in single homes (Brampton). You have international travel for any reason, pleasure, business, or family and is 100% responsible for all the variants in Canada today.There are other reasons too, but their not from "holding an event outside" or skateboarding at a skate park, crowded dog parks, or whatever.

There is no slippery slope.  This is a triage situation, it's already an emergency extenuating circumstance. We already use behaviour to ration in circumstances like this. (try getting a liver transplant if you are an alcoholic). 

Second, it isn't the actual event, it is these peoples attitude and likely other behaviour. 

As for Texas, do you have a source which shows zero COVID at the game? I doubt that very much even if it wasn't a major event, we don't know that it is zero.

[jamincan]

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 19, 2021 at 1:30pm:
43.8% of local cases are connected to the workplace
28.1% are connected to schools
9.4% are connected to licensed child care
9.4% are connected to congregate settings
3.1% are connected to hospitals
3.1% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
3.1% are connected to universities

I'm confused, I thought we were in this situation because of illegal raves and backcountry camping, and yet I don't see either on the list.

[ac3r]

Don't forget the playground superspreader events Doug Ford tried to protect us from...

[ac3r]

The region is opening vaccination pre-registration to certain essential workers: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...ation.aspx

Edit: "Sick day announcement" coming soon, whatever that implies: https://twitter.com/citycynthia/status/1...5515408389

[tomh009]

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 19, 2021 at 1:30pm:
43.8% of local cases are connected to the workplace
28.1% are connected to schools
9.4% are connected to licensed child care
9.4% are connected to congregate settings
3.1% are connected to hospitals
3.1% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
3.1% are connected to universities

I'm confused, I thought we were in this situation because of illegal raves and backcountry camping, and yet I don't see either on the list.

Well ... I was under the impression that workplace outbreaks only covered maybe 10-20% of the cases. However, that was based on trying to interpret the data on their dashboard, and it doesn't break the data out in this way, so it looks like it may have been a bad assumption.

I do wish they would publish this data regularly. (The percentages above seem to be based on only 32 cases, however!)

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-04-21 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	771	55.8	793	57.4	+12%
York	386	34.8	486	43.8	-17%
Toronto	1,249	42.6	1,239	42.3	+2%
Durham	214	33.1	241	37.3	+6%
Niagara	201	44.9	162	36.1	+15%
Hamilton	276	47.7	174	30.1	+18%
Halton	168	30.6	158	28.8	-12%
Brant	50	36.8	38	27.7	-2%
Middlesex-London	117	28.9	111	27.3	-18%
Ottawa	177	17.8	270	27.1	-35%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	82	30.1	70	25.8	-7%
Simcoe-Muskoka	124	23.0	106	19.5	-4%
Eastern Ontario	22	10.9	39	19.0	-39%
Windsor-Essex	74	19.0	62	15.9	+3%
Waterloo	120	19.4	89	14.4	-8%
Southwestern Ontario	24	12.0	24	12.0	-39%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	13	7.6	14	8.0	-36%
Northwestern	9	10.3	7	7.9	+12%
Lambton	3	2.3	10	7.4	-53%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	6	6.4	-46%
Kingston Frontenac	8	3.9	13	6.2	-29%
Sudbury	8	2.1	17	4.3	-77%
Thunder Bay	16	10.7	6	4.3	+15%
Chatham-Kent		.0	4	3.9	-1%
Ontario total					-3%

New high today for Hamilton once again, but the overall trend is much better: Peel, Niagara and Hamilton are the worst-looking health units at the moment.