The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

Have they published any data about B117 in Waterloo or did they just give up? Canada might have gotten unlucky compared to the US with respect to B117 spread...

Yep, it's on https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx . Since the beginning of April cases have been dominated by the variants, with B117 representing virtually all of them.

Interestingly there's very few other variants showing up. There's been some cases of the B1351 and P1 variants, but they've failed to spread like B117 has.

[plam]

Have they published any data about B117 in Waterloo or did they just give up? Canada might have gotten unlucky compared to the US with respect to B117 spread...

Yep, it's on https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx . Since the beginning of April cases have been dominated by the variants, with B117 representing virtually all of them.

Interestingly there's very few other variants showing up. There's been some cases of the B1351 and P1 variants, but they've failed to spread like B117 has.

Huh. Waterloo has done a relatively good job then. Maybe B117 came to Waterloo a bit later.

[ac3r]

I'm very glad B.1.617 has not seen much spread here, aka the "Indian double variant". Until recently flights from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc were fairly frequent so I kept wondering whether that would take a foothold here. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. It was extremely contagious.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-15 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	584	42.3	657	47.5	-38%
Toronto	689	23.5	778	26.5	-20%
Durham	157	24.3	160	24.7	-16%
York	252	22.7	263	23.7	-24%
Hamilton	115	19.9	121	20.8	-19%
Niagara	70	15.6	84	18.8	-36%
Middlesex-London	71	17.5	76	18.8	-25%
Halton	91	16.6	100	18.3	-36%
Brant	19	14.0	22	16.0	-5%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	36	13.2	38	14.0	-33%
Huron Perth	21	21.4	13	12.9	+52%
Waterloo	78	12.6	67	10.9	+9%
Simcoe-Muskoka	68	12.6	59	10.8	-26%
Windsor-Essex	51	13.1	42	10.7	+20%
Ottawa	108	10.9	106	10.6	-7%
Northwestern	7	8.0	7	8.4	-62%
Southwestern Ontario	12	6.0	17	8.3	-10%
Lambton	17	13.0	11	8.2	+52%
Eastern Ontario	22	10.9	15	7.4	-9%
Kingston Frontenac	9	4.4	12	6.0	-53%
Chatham-Kent	3	2.8	4	3.5	+3%
Thunder Bay	5	3.3	4	2.9	-21%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	9	5.3	4	2.2	-50%
Ontario total					-24%

[taylortbb]

A large number of local pharmacies are now on the list at https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations and offering Pfizer/Moderna vaccines. Currently eligibility is 40+ at most, but a few in KW are already open to 18+. Even if you're under 40 you can pre-register at most of them, and get in line for when they open to younger ages next week.

Unfortunately there's no coordination with the public health signup list. Every pharmacy has their own booking system, and for some chains you have to register at each individual location. Some locations also don't have online booking at all.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-05-15

Waterloo Region reported 60 new cases for today (11.5% of the active cases) and none additional for yesterday for 84; 456 new cases for the week (-20), averaging 13.2% of active cases. 530 active cases, +10 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 2,584 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,576 (-40). 3,063 recoveries and 24 deaths translated to a decrease of 503 active cases and a new total of 27,566. -5,322 active cases for the week and 194 deaths (28 per day). 42,320 tests for a positivity rate of 6.11%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.86% for the past seven days, compared to 7.40% for the preceding seven.

785 patients in ICU (+8 today, -66 for the week) and a total hospital population of 1,546 (-286 for the week).

154,104 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 128,803. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-07 (-1 day).

• 584 cases in Peel: 42.3 per 100K
  
• 157 cases in Durham: 24.3 per 100K
  
• 689 cases in Toronto: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 252 cases in York: 22.7 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Huron Perth: 21.4 per 100K
  
• 115 cases in Hamilton: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Middlesex-London: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Halton: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Niagara: 15.6 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Brant: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Lambton: 13.0 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Waterloo: 12.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 68 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 12.6 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in Ottawa: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Eastern Ontario: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Northwestern: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Thunder Bay: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-05-16

Waterloo Region reported 61 new cases for today (11.4% of the active cases) and four more for yesterday for 64; 451 new cases for the week (-5), averaging 13.0% of active cases. 519 active cases, +27 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 2,199 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,430 (-144). 3,079 recoveries and 30 deaths translated to a decrease of 910 active cases and a new total of 26,656. -5,748 active cases for the week and 177 deaths (25 per day). 33,142 tests for a positivity rate of 6.64%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.62% for the past seven days, compared to 7.41% for the preceding seven.

785 patients in ICU (+0 today, -63 for the week).

139,583 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 131,447. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (-1 day).

• 547 cases in Peel: 39.6 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Hamilton: 22.3 per 100K
  
• 143 cases in Durham: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 633 cases in Toronto: 21.6 per 100K
  
• 172 cases in York: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Halton: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Brant: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Niagara: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.9 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Middlesex-London: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 74 cases in Ottawa: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Lambton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  

[Chris]

A large number of local pharmacies are now on the list at https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations and offering Pfizer/Moderna vaccines. Currently eligibility is 40+ at most, but a few in KW are already open to 18+. Even if you're under 40 you can pre-register at most of them, and get in line for when they open to younger ages next week.

Unfortunately there's no coordination with the public health signup list. Every pharmacy has their own booking system, and for some chains you have to register at each individual location. Some locations also don't have online booking at all.

The lack registration coordination is an irritant. I was on Rexall, Shoppers, Costco, an independent pharmacy and the Region's list. Got my first shot this weekend so I took my name off the other lists now, except the Region, I don't see how to do it.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-17 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	556	40.2	596	43.1	-24%
Toronto	566	19.3	714	24.4	-19%
Durham	120	18.6	148	22.9	-11%
York	215	19.4	242	21.8	-30%
Hamilton	101	17.4	113	19.6	+2%
Niagara	59	13.2	77	17.2	-42%
Halton	91	16.6	90	16.4	-20%
Middlesex-London	30	7.4	66	16.3	-47%
Brant	17	12.5	19	13.9	+33%
Huron Perth	4	4.1	12	12.0	-20%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	21	7.7	31	11.5	-35%
Waterloo	75	12.1	69	11.1	-12%
Windsor-Essex	32	8.2	42	10.8	+9%
Ottawa	90	9.0	101	10.1	-20%
Simcoe-Muskoka	59	10.9	53	9.8	+2%
Southwestern Ontario	13	6.5	17	8.3	-36%
Lambton	11	8.4	10	7.7	+56%
Eastern Ontario	10	4.9	13	6.5	-3%
Northwestern	1	1.1	5	6.2	-81%
Kingston Frontenac	10	4.9	10	4.9	-34%
Chatham-Kent	2	1.9	4	3.3	-1%
Thunder Bay		.0	4	2.3	-52%
Ontario total					-20%

[Acitta]

A large number of local pharmacies are now on the list at https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations and offering Pfizer/Moderna vaccines. Currently eligibility is 40+ at most, but a few in KW are already open to 18+. Even if you're under 40 you can pre-register at most of them, and get in line for when they open to younger ages next week.

Unfortunately there's no coordination with the public health signup list. Every pharmacy has their own booking system, and for some chains you have to register at each individual location. Some locations also don't have online booking at all.

The lack registration coordination is an irritant. I was on Rexall, Shoppers, Costco, an independent pharmacy and the Region's list. Got my first shot this weekend so I took my name off the other lists now, except the Region, I don't see how to do it.

You don't have to take your name off the list. Just don't respond to the email asking you to set up an appointment time.

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-05-17

Waterloo Region reported 60 new cases for today (11.5% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 63; 459 new cases for the week (-8), averaging 13.1% of active cases. 512 active cases, +25 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

11,725 doses of vaccine administered over the past three days -- far better than the 7,649 a week ago -- with a seven-day average of 3,434. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-17 (-12 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 31 days (-11).

Ontario reported 2,170 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,352 (-78). 2,953 recoveries and four deaths translated to a decrease of 787 active cases and a new total of 25,869. -6,122 active cases for the week and 162 deaths (23 per day). Only 24,498 tests for a still relatively modest positivity rate of 8.86%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.46% for the past seven days, compared to 7.36% for the preceding seven.

779 patients in ICU (-6 today, -49 for the week).

112,330 doses of vaccine administered, with a record-high seven-day average of 134,052. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 days).

• 556 cases in Peel: 40.2 per 100K
  
• 215 cases in York: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 566 cases in Toronto: 19.3 per 100K
  
• 120 cases in Durham: 18.6 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Hamilton: 17.4 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Halton: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Niagara: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 75 cases in Waterloo: 12.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 59 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Ottawa: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Lambton: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Huron Perth: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.9 per 100K
  

   

[danbrotherston]

Ontario numbers are still looking good but region numbers seem to be pretty stagnant.

[tomh009]

Ontario numbers are still looking good but region numbers seem to be pretty stagnant.

Yeah. The region is still somewhat better than the provincial average, but the gap is quite small now. I don't think it's the impact of the vaccine distribution, though, as that is quite recent and should not show in the case data this soon. I don't have any ideas about the cause other than "possibly it's random variation".

[danbrotherston]

Ontario numbers are still looking good but region numbers seem to be pretty stagnant.

Yeah. The region is still somewhat better than the provincial average, but the gap is quite small now. I don't think it's the impact of the vaccine distribution, though, as that is quite recent and should not show in the case data this soon. I don't have any ideas about the cause other than "possibly it's random variation".

Definitely some random variation.

I continue to be frustrated by this lockdown. I get the sense very few aren't taking it seriously...and why should the, some retail is closed (and golf for some reason), but most non-retail businesses are open. 

If we weren't in such an extremely dangerous situation, we could lock down extremely strongly, send a strong message, for 2-3 weeks...but no, it has to be this ineffective weak messaging, with a ridiculously long duration...and frankly, I'm getting a little testy about it.

[plam]

If we weren't in such an extremely dangerous situation, we could lock down extremely strongly, send a strong message, for 2-3 weeks...but no, it has to be this ineffective weak messaging, with a ridiculously long duration...and frankly, I'm getting a little testy about it.

Melbourne (3 months) vs New Zealand (7 weeks) vs Ontario (6 months).