The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

If we weren't in such an extremely dangerous situation, we could lock down extremely strongly, send a strong message, for 2-3 weeks...but no, it has to be this ineffective weak messaging, with a ridiculously long duration...and frankly, I'm getting a little testy about it.

Melbourne (3 months) vs New Zealand (7 weeks) vs Ontario (6 months).

We really haven't had anything even resembling a "lockdown" for more than about two months in total. The orange/red zone restrictions are still very modest.

As most people here know, I'm not a big fan of how our provincial government has managed this. But, the good thing is that we have muddled through it well enough (and long enough) that we will now likely be able to vaccinate our way out of this. And, at least so far, the signs for a high level of vaccine acceptance are good.

[Coke6pk]

Yesterday's vaccination stats, thanks to the CBC.

The particularly encouraging thing here is the high vaccination rate for 70+ people, and even 60-69. This indicates very low levels of vaccine hesitancy, and improves my confidence in us being able to vaccinate ourselves to (at least some level of) normalcy.

How do you vaccinate 109% of RH residents?

Coke

[bgb_ca]

Yesterday's vaccination stats, thanks to the CBC.

The particularly encouraging thing here is the high vaccination rate for 70+ people, and even 60-69. This indicates very low levels of vaccine hesitancy, and improves my confidence in us being able to vaccinate ourselves to (at least some level of) normalcy.

How do you vaccinate 109% of RH residents?

Coke

Guessing that counts those that received it but passed due to other causes.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-05-18

Waterloo Region reported 53 new cases for today (10.3% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 61; 467 new cases for the week (+8), averaging 13.2% of active cases. 516 active cases, +54 in the last seven days.

1,040 tests per day for the past week for an average positivity rate of 6.42%, roughly the same as the provincial rate.

1,435 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 3,489. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-07 (+0 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 31 days (+0).

Ontario reported 1,616 new cases today -- albeit with the lowest test volume in more than six months -- with a seven-day average of 2,287 (-65). 2,502 recoveries and four deaths translated to a decrease of 903 active cases and a new total of 24,966. -6,185 active cases for the week and 164 deaths (23 per day). Only 22,915 tests for a relatively low positivity rate of 7.05%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.41% for the past seven days, compared to 7.23% for the preceding seven.

764 patients in ICU (-15 today, -38 for the week), down 15% from the end-of-April peak. 1484 total hospital patients, -298 for the week and 37% down from the peak.

109,032 doses of vaccine administered, with a record-high seven-day average of 133,614. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 days).

• 360 cases in Peel: 26.0 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in Hamilton: 19.7 per 100K
  
• 472 cases in Toronto: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 102 cases in Durham: 15.8 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Brant: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 75 cases in Brant: 12.1 per 100K
  
• 60 cases in Halton: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Niagara: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 116 cases in York: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Middlesex-London: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Ottawa: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Chatham-Kent: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Windsor-Essex: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-19 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	335	24.2	510	36.9	-24%
Toronto	524	17.9	655	22.4	-30%
Durham	62	9.6	133	20.6	-37%
York	94	8.5	201	18.1	-45%
Hamilton	34	5.9	105	18.1	-21%
Niagara	48	10.7	66	14.6	-39%
Halton	49	8.9	79	14.4	-28%
Brant	18	13.2	19	14.2	+10%
Middlesex-London	51	12.6	54	13.3	-18%
Huron Perth	8	8.2	11	10.7	-56%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	26	9.6	28	10.4	-36%
Windsor-Essex	56	14.4	40	10.3	+6%
Waterloo	21	3.4	61	9.9	-14%
Ottawa	105	10.6	91	9.1	-7%
Simcoe-Muskoka	27	5.0	47	8.8	-13%
Southwestern Ontario	14	7.0	14	6.9	-17%
Lambton	2	1.5	9	6.6	-23%
Eastern Ontario	14	6.9	12	5.8	+43%
Kingston Frontenac	10	4.9	9	4.5	-27%
Northwestern	5	5.7	4	4.2	-22%
Chatham-Kent	6	5.7	4	3.6	+63%
Ontario total					-27%

[tomh009]

The test volumes are down by 30-40% recently, which is not great.

But, given that we have vaccinated about 45% of the population, I don't think the drop should be a total surprise: I do think vaccinated people will be far less likely to get symptoms, and also less likely to get themselves tested at any given time. And that will reduce the number of people being tested.

[jeffster]

The test volumes are down by 30-40% recently, which is not great.

But, given that we have vaccinated about 45% of the population, I don't think the drop should be a total surprise: I do think vaccinated people will be far less likely to get symptoms, and also less likely to get themselves tested at any given time. And that will reduce the number of people being tested.

I think that is the exact reason why you're seeing less tests. What's the point if you're not feeling sick and vaccinated running out for a test?

What is a good sign is that the latest reports (Monday numbers) had a decline over Sundays numbers (reported on Tuesday) yet more testing. The next 4 reports will be interesting to watch.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-05-19

bWaterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (7.4% of the active cases) and six more for yesterday for 59; 427 new cases for the week (-40), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 487 active cases, -1 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

5,532 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 3,745. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-03 (-4 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 27 days (-3).

Ontario reported 1,588 new cases today -- with another low test volume, but also a low positivity rate -- with a seven-day average of 2,183 (-104). 3,119 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,550 active cases and a new total of 23,416. -6,546 active cases for the week and 151 deaths (22 per day). 38,422 tests with a low positivity rate of 4.13%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.28% for the past seven days, compared to 7.04% for the preceding seven.

735 patients in ICU (-29 today, -41 for the week) and 1,401 total hospital patients (-272 for the week).

145,461 doses of vaccine administered, with another record seven-day average at 134,282. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 days).

• 335 cases in Peel: 24.2 per 100K
  
• 524 cases in Toronto: 17.9 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Windsor-Essex: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Brant: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Middlesex-London: 12.6 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Niagara: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 105 cases in Ottawa: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Durham: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Halton: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in York: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Hamilton: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Waterloo: 3.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  

[robdrimmie]

Yesterday's vaccination stats, thanks to the CBC.

The particularly encouraging thing here is the high vaccination rate for 70+ people, and even 60-69. This indicates very low levels of vaccine hesitancy, and improves my confidence in us being able to vaccinate ourselves to (at least some level of) normalcy.

How do you vaccinate 109% of RH residents?

Coke

The fine print explains it. The denominator is based on an estimate from January 1, 2021, the numerator is based on real data as of May 11. The estimate apparently was lower than reality.

[tomh009]

How do you vaccinate 109% of RH residents?

Coke

The fine print explains it. The denominator is based on an estimate from January 1, 2021, the numerator is based on real data as of May 11. The estimate apparently was lower than reality.

Also, they will continually get new residents, who may also need to be vaccinated.

[ac3r]

50.17% of Waterloo Region adults (as of 19:00 on May 19th) have now been vaccinated by at least 1 dose, which is good news! https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...force.aspx#

[jeffster]

50.17% of Waterloo Region adults (as of 19:00 on May 19th) have now been vaccinated by at least 1 dose, which is good news! https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...force.aspx#

We're still significantly behind not only the province, but the country as well. I wonder why the region is performing as poorly as it is? Canada is 47.25%, Ontario is 47.3% and RoW is 39.8%. That's actually a huge gap. It can't be explained by demographics alone.

[jwilliamson]

50.17% of Waterloo Region adults (as of 19:00 on May 19th) have now been vaccinated by at least 1 dose, which is good news! https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...force.aspx#

We're still significantly behind not only the province, but the country as well. I wonder why the region is performing as poorly as it is? Canada is 47.25%, Ontario is 47.3% and RoW is 39.8%. That's actually a huge gap. It can't be explained by demographics alone.

Isn't it simply that our numbers were lower than the provincial hotspots so we were allocated fewer vaccines?

[tomh009]

We're still significantly behind not only the province, but the country as well. I wonder why the region is performing as poorly as it is? Canada is 47.25%, Ontario is 47.3% and RoW is 39.8%. That's actually a huge gap. It can't be explained by demographics alone.

Isn't it simply that our numbers were lower than the provincial hotspots so we were allocated fewer vaccines?

That's it. Regional health is not sitting on a stock of vaccines contemplating what to do with them.

[taylortbb]

Yep, last update has us at 94.4% of doses administered, according to https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...mid_=32238# . Ontario as a whole never gets that high, normally being 80-90% as shipments are received then administered.

Waterloo is good at getting doses in arms, we just didn't get doses. Peel starts vaccinating ages 12+ tomorrow (Thursday) because they have so much supply, while Waterloo public health said they're currently booking those 50+ (plus essential workers, at risk, etc).

At this point, with clinics in Peel officially opening to anyone in the province, anyone in Waterloo Region that doesn't mind travelling to Mississauga for a vaccine should do so. It'll take load off the local capacity, which has a huge backlog to work through.