The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

To be clear, I am not blaming her for all this. However, I have to wonder who, if anyone, is advocating for doses for our region, and why we still don't have a robust vaccination program. I mean, it's bad.

The province has been allocating the vaccine doses to regions so the regions don't get to decide that. Peel is asking for more doses again for their hotspots, even though their new case levels are well below ours now. But, in the end, it's a provincial decision.

I haven't seen any real issues with the actual vaccination program in the region but maybe there are problems that I haven't spotted. What are the issues with the regional vaccination program, in your view?

The region should be advocating for more doses if we are behind. If Peel is asking for more doses, we could be as well. Perhaps they are behind the scenes, but it doesn't seem to be effective.

[tomh009]

The province has been allocating the vaccine doses to regions so the regions don't get to decide that. Peel is asking for more doses again for their hotspots, even though their new case levels are well below ours now. But, in the end, it's a provincial decision.

I haven't seen any real issues with the actual vaccination program in the region but maybe there are problems that I haven't spotted. What are the issues with the regional vaccination program, in your view?

The region should be advocating for more doses if we are behind. If Peel is asking for more doses, we could be as well. Perhaps they are behind the scenes, but it doesn't seem to be effective.

I fully expect them to be advocating, pleading and begging for more vaccine doses. And I expect that just about every other health unit in Ontario will be doing the same. Currently we appear to be getting approximately a per-capita share, I'll have weekly numbers soon which will smooth out the daily variation.

[Bjays93]

I am getting quite concerned about this delta variant. Supposedly every region has reported it now, and i don't know how effective vaccines are against it.

If you look at the UK their numbers are up almost 100% week over week. Its very concerning and our government should be alarmed and working behind the scenes to develop the best possible response to this.

[tomh009]

I am getting quite concerned about this delta variant. Supposedly every region has reported it now, and i don't know how effective vaccines are against it.

If you look at the UK their numbers are up almost 100% week over week. Its very concerning and our government should be alarmed and working behind the scenes to develop the best possible response to this.

I was reading about an outbreak at a hospital in Hämeenlinna, Finland. They had 57 patients and 42 staff (nurses, doctors and admin staff) infected with COVID-19 Delta. Originally detected in two individuals in two different wards, they retested and found more than 40% of the patients in those wards had been infected. They use full PPE and follow procedures when putting it on and removing it, but it did not prevent the nurses from getting infected. Aerosol infection?

Of the 57 infected patients, 14 were unvaccinated, 41 had one dose and two were fully vaccinated. 14 of the patients died: five unvaccinated, 11 with one dose and one fully vaccinated. (Worthwhile to note here that all of them were already in hospital with some kind of a health issue before becoming infected.) The vaccinated individuals generally had mild symptoms so detection without a PCR test is more difficult -- but they are still able to infect others.

Summa summarum, vaccines still help, and reduce the likelihood of symptoms, but the vaccinations alone will not stop the spread. (As an aside, UK is just under 60% vaccinated, a bit lower than Canada, but has more fully vaccinated people. They have, however, reopened much more aggressively than we have.)

[clasher]

Public Health England has some data about the effectiveness and it seems pretty good from what I gather but I'm not a scientician either.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vacci...er-2-doses

[jeffster]

I am getting quite concerned about this delta variant. Supposedly every region has reported it now, and i don't know how effective vaccines are against it.

If you look at the UK their numbers are up almost 100% week over week. Its very concerning and our government should be alarmed and working behind the scenes to develop the best possible response to this.

Single dose is 70% effective at preventing sickness. I believe it is close to 100% at preventing hospitalization.

That said, the narrative from the PHAC, Trudeau, Ford, PHU's, CTV, CBC and other news agencies will be this: "Ontario a long way from being out of the woods as deadly Delta variant takes a strangle hold in the province." This, despite cases and hospitalizations dropping quickly.

[jeffster]

So in other news, Waterloo Region continues to rise to the top:

(This is seven day average, unadjusted, for case per 100K)

• Porcupine Health Unit 326.0
• Peel Public Health 50.7
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 49.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 43.9
• Niagara Region Public Health 40.0
• Brant County Health Unit 39.3
• Durham Region Health Department 37.2
• Toronto Public Health 36.1
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 30.0
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 29.1

What is odd is that Middlesex-London isn't there, despite their piss poor rollout, along with Hamilton and Waterloo Region. Either way, we should successfully be a top in a few days, with the exception of Porcupine.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-06-09

Waterloo Region reported 54 new cases for today (15.1% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 32; 316 new cases for the week (+26 from yesterday, +37 from last week), averaging 13.2% of active cases. 354 active cases, +40 in the last seven days.

7,492 vaccinations with a seven-day average of 6,724 with an over 30% improvement over the previous week's 5,047. 54.92% of the total regional population (+0.71%) has at least one dose of vaccine, and 5.32% (+0.53%) has been fully vaccinated.

Ontario reported 411 new cases today with a seven-day average of 657 (-46).932 recoveries and 33 deaths translated to a decrease of 554 active cases and a new total of 6,824. -3,840 active cases for the week and 129 deaths (18 per day). 30,456 tests with a positivity rate of 1.35%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.64% for the past seven days, compared to 3.42% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 902
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 28
  
• Gamma (P.1): 64
  

466 patients in ICU (-15 today, -110 for the week) and 571 total hospital patients (-137 for the week).

177,506 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 157,571 (previous week was 136,453). 62.24% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.46% from yesterday), 8.71% fully vaccinated (+0.73% from yesterday).

• 35 cases in Waterloo: 5.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 72 cases in Peel: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Niagara: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Hamilton: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 97 cases in Toronto: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Durham: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in York: 2.3 per 100K
  

The regional numbers are at best treading water, and based on the wastewater data analysis, they are actually understating the number of cases in Kitchener. At this point the province may need to start treating Kitchener as a hot spot ...

   

[Chris]

I am getting quite concerned about this delta variant. Supposedly every region has reported it now, and i don't know how effective vaccines are against it.

If you look at the UK their numbers are up almost 100% week over week. Its very concerning and our government should be alarmed and working behind the scenes to develop the best possible response to this.

Single dose is 70% effective at preventing sickness. I believe it is close to 100% at preventing hospitalization.

That said, the narrative from the PHAC, Trudeau, Ford, PHU's, CTV, CBC and other news agencies will be this: "Ontario a long way from being out of the woods as deadly Delta variant takes a strangle hold in the province." This, despite cases and hospitalizations dropping quickly.

Where does the 70% figure come from and is that for the delta variant? I don't know Dr. Loh's source, I'm just quoting his statement.


Dr. Lawrence Loh said that, in his jurisdiction, a "potential fourth wave" driven by the variant is "brewing right now."

The more transmissible strain continues to spread in a number of health units, especially in Peel and Toronto, and the currently-available vaccines offer only a 33 to 55 per cent effectiveness against it after a single dose, Loh added.


I'm hoping delta isn't bad and it doesn't cause a fourth wave but it's good to be aware of the chances if it is more contagious or if vaccines are less effective.

[plam]

I am getting quite concerned about this delta variant. Supposedly every region has reported it now, and i don't know how effective vaccines are against it.

If you look at the UK their numbers are up almost 100% week over week. Its very concerning and our government should be alarmed and working behind the scenes to develop the best possible response to this.

Somehow the experts, who were very concerned when Alpha was coming, are more calm about Delta. As other people have said, a single dose is less protective against Delta than other variants, but two doses are fine. Waterloo might be especially at risk for Delta compared to Ontario as a whole though.

[jeffster]

The regional numbers are at best treading water, and based on the wastewater data analysis, they are actually understating the number of cases in Kitchener. At this point the province may need to start treating Kitchener as a hot spot ...

Wow...the likely cause might be in neighbourhoods with higher immigration numbers. There needs to be better messaging from the region regarding the vaccine. That said, it doesn't appear that we're getting our share of vaccine either. As I had mentioned before, my opinion was that Redman should not be on the Task Force, yet she is heading it. This is a mistake.

To be honest though, I am having a difficult time understanding our overall rollout. Overall, communication has been very poor. I have had to do a lot of digging and. begging, to get family members vaccinated. Still awaiting 2nd vaccination for my 81 year old mother, and again, having to do a lot of leg work, searching on the web, to figure things out.

I think in this case, the province should have taken care of the rollout here.

My other though, we should have opened up local clinics for shots. Neither location is great, and I believe the region dropped the ball on this one too. Sure, the Boardwalk Clinic is nice -- but it's hardly convenient for anyone to get to. Now just imagine having to use public transit to get there. Not centralized at all.

That said, seems that our vaccine allotment has also been lagging the rest of the province (based on raw numbers). We need to advocate for more doses, and perhaps the cities and townships need to take over from the region the vaccine rollout. Make things centralized. Have vaccine clinics at community centres so as to penetrate more of the population.

My friend works in WR, and his company got so fed up with the region, that they purchased their own doses of Moderna (1000's (not Toyota, btw)) to have staff vaccinated. Perhaps other large businesses need to do the same thing.

[jeffster]

Where does the 70% figure come from and is that for the delta variant? I don't know Dr. Loh's source, I'm just quoting his statement.

I read this on The Guardian. Study from the UK. Could be bad reporting.

That said, doing more research on it, it seems that what I first read may have been misinterpreted. This is what I found on FT.com

Based on the data, FT analysis suggests two doses of a vaccine are about 95 per cent effective at preventing hospital admission with the Delta variant, and one dose upwards of 70 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3ae...f5cb540321

To me, that 95% prevention of hospitalization isn't great. However, I am having a hard time understanding their calculation -- what percent of people are actually protected? I mean, it sounds like you have a 1 in 20 chance of hospitalization if you get Delta even if you have two doses.

[taylortbb]

To me, that 95% prevention of hospitalization isn't great. However, I am having a hard time understanding their calculation -- what percent of people are actually protected? I mean, it sounds like you have a 1 in 20 chance of hospitalization if you get Delta even if you have two doses.

Normally they're measured against the control group, which would be unvaccinated. So when they say "95% protected against hospitalization" they mean "95% fewer hospitalizations than unvaccinated" . But it's always possible someone used a different (misleading) definition.

[Chris]

Where does the 70% figure come from and is that for the delta variant? I don't know Dr. Loh's source, I'm just quoting his statement.

I read this on The Guardian. Study from the UK. Could be bad reporting.

That said, doing more research on it, it seems that what I first read may have been misinterpreted. This is what I found on FT.com

Based on the data, FT analysis suggests two doses of a vaccine are about 95 per cent effective at preventing hospital admission with the Delta variant, and one dose upwards of 70 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/f2ae00ee-e3ae...f5cb540321

To me, that 95% prevention of hospitalization isn't great. However, I am having a hard time understanding their calculation -- what percent of people are actually protected? I mean, it sounds like you have a 1 in 20 chance of hospitalization if you get Delta even if you have two doses.

Cool, thanks for the follow up. It is hard to follow the figures coming from different regions with different measurements and sample sizes. It can be confusing.

The common thread I'm seeing is that health units are pushing for a second shot for better Delta protection.

Also the link from Clasher was a good read.

[tomh009]

My other though, we should have opened up local clinics for shots. Neither location is great, and I believe the region dropped the ball on this one too. Sure, the Boardwalk Clinic is nice -- but it's hardly convenient for anyone to get to. Now just imagine having to use public transit to get there. Not centralized at all.

All the health units are struggling to some extent with communication and organization. The province dropped this on them and they did not have the organization or infrastructure set up for this. I don't know that Waterloo Region is particularly worse than others in this regard. And, as discussed, vaccine allocation is ultimately decided by the province, no matter how much individual health units advocate, plead or beg.

But vaccines are also available at many doctors' offices and pharmacies, not just the few large locations. The doctors and pharmacies are a key element of getting enough people vaccinated province-wide.