The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Our (Canadian) vaccination rate is good by global standards at 73.16% (first dose), but that still leaves about 14% of the population eligible but not vaccinated.

Portugal, on the other hand, has bumped their first-dose percentage from 68.95% to 80.57% (!) in just the last three weeks. Why? How? It appears that the key is the vaccination requirement: inside dining and bars require two vaccinations after 7 PM on Fridays and on weekends/holidays (or a recent PCR test), for example, giving plenty of incentive to get vaccinated.

The Portuguese infection rate is still fairly high but now appears to have stabilized, whereas we are still clearly on the upslope.

So, do we have enough incentives coming up? The Ontario government has only mandated vaccination for hospitals, but the federal government has taken some action -- and private companies are continuing to announce requirements. At times ongoing testing will be accepted (who will pay may vary) but even so the incentive to get vaccinated will be significant.

Will this be enough to get us to 80% of the total population?

• Federal government
  
• Hospitals (employees) and ambulance services
  

• Air Canada, including passengers
  
• Porter Airlines, including passengers
  
• WestJet, including passengers
  
• Sun Life
  
• "Big Five" chartered banks
  

• Conestoga College
  
• Wilfred Laurier University
  

• Amazon
  
• Facebook
  
• Google
  
• Microsoft
  
• Twitter
  

• Live Nation
  
• Winnipeg Jets
  
• Toronto Argonauts
  
• Toronto Blue Jays
  
• Toronto FC
  
• Toronto Maple Leafs
  
• Toronto Raptors
  
• Ontario Hockey League
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 89.9
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 68.4
• Brant County Health Unit 41.9
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 40.0
• York Region Public Health 34.8
• Peel Public Health 33.3
• Toronto Public Health 27.8
• Durham Region Health Department 27.2
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 22.8
• Halton Region Public Health 22.8

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 20.7

• Peterborough Public Health 9.5
• Porcupine Health Unit 7.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 6.9
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 6.2
• Northwestern Health Unit 5.7
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 4.2
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 2.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 1.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 1.5
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 27.3

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-08-23

Waterloo Region reported 11 new cases for today (7.1% of the active cases) and none additional for yesterday for 24; 119 new cases for the week (-7 from yesterday and -11 from last week), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 141 active cases, -3 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

4,354 doses of vaccine administered over the last three days, with a seven-day average at 1,563 (previous week was 2,006). 70.10% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.58% from Friday, +0.94% from 7 days ago), 63.96% fully vaccinated (+0.91% from yesterday, +1.68% from 7 days ago).

The region is now vaccinating, on average, 600+ people with first dose each day, which is an encouraging sign for the success of the outreach efforts. The incoming vaccine requirements (see previous post) should hopefully bump that up further. NB. The regional vaccination percentages on the Ontario web site are significantly higher, because they are using old population figures (under 600K). I believe the same is true for the provincial vaccination percentages.

Ontario reported 639 new cases today with a seven-day average of 581 (+17), compared to 469 a week ago. 502 recoveries and zero deaths translated to an increase of 137 active cases and a new total of 5,126. +1,254 active cases for the week and 14 deaths (two per day). 19,866 tests with a positivity rate of 3.22%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 2.30% for the preceding seven.

121 people in the ICU, +8 from yesterday and +29 over the last week.

22,589 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 39,384 (previous week was 44,531). 72.82% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.05% from yesterday, +0.57% from 7 days ago), 66.37% fully vaccinated (+0.10% from yesterday, +1.27% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 64 cases in Hamilton: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Brant: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in York: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 97 cases in Peel: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Grey Bruce: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 124 cases in Toronto: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Halton: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Ottawa: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Niagara: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Waterloo: 1.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

BC is introducing a vaccine passport (really a card) for access to events and social spaces:

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says starting Sept. 13 a new order will require proof of having had a single dose of a vaccine to access certain social and recreational activities, as well as businesses.

After Oct. 24, Henry says entry to the same settings will require those 12 years and older to be fully vaccinated and only children 12 and under will be exempt.

She says the new measures will help reduce transmission of the virus and allow businesses to remain open for those who are protected by vaccines.

Places where vaccine cards will be necessary include indoor ticketed sports events; concerts, theatre, dance and symphony performances; indoor and patio dining at restaurants; as well as at nightclubs and casinos, fitness centres and at organized indoor events such as weddings and parties.

Henry says there won’t be any exemptions for those who haven’t had two shots because this will be a temporary measure to get the province through a risky period – and the events are optional.

[jeffster]

Our (Canadian) vaccination rate is good by global standards at 73.16% (first dose), but that still leaves about 14% of the population eligible but not vaccinated.

So, do we have enough incentives coming up? The Ontario government has only mandated vaccination for hospitals, but the federal government has taken some action -- and private companies are continuing to announce requirements. At times ongoing testing will be accepted (who will pay may vary) but even so the incentive to get vaccinated will be significant.

Will this be enough to get us to 80% of the total population?

I have to wonder if the "FDA" giving full approval might sway some anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. I mean, FDA has zilch to do with Canada, but everyone on FaceBitch, Instacrap and Twithead keep talking how Pfizer, for example, didn't have "FDA" approval. Hopefully it does sway enough to make a difference.

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

[panamaniac]

Our (Canadian) vaccination rate is good by global standards at 73.16% (first dose), but that still leaves about 14% of the population eligible but not vaccinated.

So, do we have enough incentives coming up? The Ontario government has only mandated vaccination for hospitals, but the federal government has taken some action -- and private companies are continuing to announce requirements. At times ongoing testing will be accepted (who will pay may vary) but even so the incentive to get vaccinated will be significant.

Will this be enough to get us to 80% of the total population?

I have to wonder if the "FDA" giving full approval might sway some anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. I mean, FDA has zilch to do with Canada, but everyone on FaceBitch, Instacrap and Twithead keep talking how Pfizer, for example, didn't have "FDA" approval. Hopefully it does sway enough to make a difference.

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

I suspect that for most, other arguments will just replace the “experimental/not FDA approved” rubbish.  Vaccine passports/vaccination mandates will have much more impact.

[tomh009]

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

Eventually, yes. But, at the moment, I believe those shots would be better spent getting people elsewhere vaccinated. Next year the situation may well be different, though.

[plam]

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

Eventually, yes. But, at the moment, I believe those shots would be better spent getting people elsewhere vaccinated. Next year the situation may well be different, though.

+1, definitely global vaccinations are more important than boosters now.

I am not yet convinced about boosters but the data may be starting to say something. Here's a thread:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/...56320?s=19

"... it's very early days, and the Israeli data is full of potential confounders."

[bgb_ca]

Our (Canadian) vaccination rate is good by global standards at 73.16% (first dose), but that still leaves about 14% of the population eligible but not vaccinated.

So, do we have enough incentives coming up? The Ontario government has only mandated vaccination for hospitals, but the federal government has taken some action -- and private companies are continuing to announce requirements. At times ongoing testing will be accepted (who will pay may vary) but even so the incentive to get vaccinated will be significant.

Will this be enough to get us to 80% of the total population?

I have to wonder if the "FDA" giving full approval might sway some anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. I mean, FDA has zilch to do with Canada, but everyone on FaceBitch, Instacrap and Twithead keep talking how Pfizer, for example, didn't have "FDA" approval. Hopefully it does sway enough to make a difference.

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

Might convince some, but I suspect a lot of them will go ahead and "move the goalpost" as that argument no longer has weight.

And yes, I am aware that the FDA has nothing to do with us up north as Health Canada handles it up here. Not sure if they are still under the interim approval up here or not.

[danbrotherston]

I have to wonder if the "FDA" giving full approval might sway some anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists. I mean, FDA has zilch to do with Canada, but everyone on FaceBitch, Instacrap and Twithead keep talking how Pfizer, for example, didn't have "FDA" approval. Hopefully it does sway enough to make a difference.

Goes without saying, we'll need a third shot.

Might convince some, but I suspect a lot of them will go ahead and "move the goalpost" as that argument no longer has weight.

And yes, I am aware that the FDA has nothing to do with us up north as Health Canada handles it up here. Not sure if they are still under the interim approval up here or not.

As far as I understand it has never been under "interim approval".  There is only approval here. There were interim rules introduced for COVID to fast track (not reduce) the approval process.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-08-24

Waterloo Region reported 13 new cases for today (9.2% of the active cases) and zero additional for yesterday for 11; 123 new cases for the week (+4 from yesterday and +2 from last week), averaging 12.2% of active cases. 143 active cases, +1 in the last seven days.

An average of 854 tests/day for the past seven days, for a positivity rate of 2.06%, up from last week's 1.69%, but on 15% lower testing volume.

1,528 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,561 (previous week was 1,906). The region has changed its data source to the provincial COVAXON database, so the data is not comparable to yesterday. Using the revised regional population of 588,878 (which accounts for the reduced student population) 73.24% of the total regional population has been vaccinated and 66.83% fully vaccinated.

Ontario reported 639 new cases today with a seven-day average of 600 (+19), compared to 473 a week ago. 541 recoveries and two deaths translated to a decrease of 73 active cases and a new total of 5,053. +1,123 active cases for the week and 12 deaths (two per day). 17,369 tests with a positivity rate of 2.80%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.56% for the past seven days, compared to 2.31% for the preceding seven.

125 people in the ICU, +4 from yesterday and +27 over the last week. Total hospital population is 295, +121 over the past seven days.

36,655 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 38,817 (previous week was 43,438). 72.91% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday, +0.59% from 7 days ago), 66.53% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.23% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 47 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.1 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Hamilton: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Peel: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Halton: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Toronto: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in York: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Brant: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Niagara: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Waterloo: 1.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 2 cases in Grey Bruce: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Ottawa: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 1 case in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 1 case in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

Seems like the region is the lagging indicator now

[tomh009]

Speaking of lagging indicators ... the hospitals are starting to fill up again.

   

[plam]

Speaking of lagging indicators ... the hospitals are starting to fill up again.

As we should expect, sadly. Sure, we're keeping some of the oldest people out of hospital with vaccination, but the unvaccinated 30 year olds still need hospital treatment at the same rate, and more of them are getting infected now.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 91.3
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 70.3
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 42.0
• Brant County Health Unit 41.9
• York Region Public Health 35.8
• Peel Public Health 35.6
• Toronto Public Health 29.3
• Durham Region Health Department 25.4
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 24.5
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 24.5

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 20.4

• Algoma Public Health 8.7
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 8.6
• Porcupine Health Unit 7.2
• Northwestern Health Unit 6.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.8
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 4.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 3.3
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 3.1
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 28.3