The COVID-19 pandemic

[plam]

I am not sure if that will actually be true. Currently infection rates are higher among the vaccinated than unvaccinated (something like 0.9x for unvaccinated). Could be that 3 doses changes those numbers, who knows. But at the rate, it appears that everyone has been, or will be, infected at some point.

Perhaps the issue is that vaccinated people are more likely to play fast and loose with their vaccinated family, friends and co-workers, compared to unvaccinated people that might be shunned, disfellowshipped and excommunicated from family, friends and co-workers.

I think you are looking at the infection rates/100,000. The rate for fully vaccinated has consistently been significantly lower than that for unvaccinated. However, in the last seven days (of reported data) the two lines converged at a rather higher rate. The very last day had a higher date for the vaccinated, but it's only a single day. Even that one-week period is really too short. We'll have to wait and see what the numbers look like next week when regular reporting resumes.

Not to mention that hospitalizations among vaccinated is way lower. It's almost like a flat line, as opposed to the hospitalizations among unvaccinated, which climbs.

[jeffster]

Todays numbers will continue to show that unvaccinated individuals are 17x more likely to end up in the ICU than vaccinated (4.22 per 100k vs 0.25 per 100k), however, they are 31% less likely to contract Covid (56 per 100k unvaccinated vs 72 per 100k vaccinated).

What this shows is: 1) the vaccine continues to work to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations -- but it doesn't offer any extra protection against infection and 2) vaccinated individuals are not using any caution when going about their business.

Things to keep in mind: the vaccine doesn't prevent infection and it doesn't prevent the spread. Its only use is keeping you from becoming symptomatic and/or becoming seriously. ill. That means vaccinated people (along with the unvaccinated) need to wear a good mask, practise good hygiene including washing your hands regularly, and practise good social distancing, including members of your immediate family. This is especially true if you have young unvaccinated children (under 5) -- avoid contact with them to prevent spreading the virus to them.

[plam]

Todays numbers will continue to show that unvaccinated individuals are 17x  more likely to end up in the ICU than vaccinated (4.22 per 100k vs 0.25 per 100k), however, they are 31% less likely to contract Covid (56 per 100k unvaccinated vs 72 per 100k vaccinated).

What this shows is: 1) the vaccine continues to work to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations -- but it doesn't offer any extra protection against infection and 2) vaccinated individuals are not using any caution when going about their business.

Things to keep in mind: the vaccine doesn't prevent infection and it doesn't prevent the spread. Its only use is keeping you from becoming symptomatic and/or becoming seriously. ill. That means vaccinated people (along with the unvaccinated) need to wear a good mask, practise good hygiene including washing your hands regularly, and practise good social distancing, including members of your immediate family. This is especially true if you have young unvaccinated children (under 5) -- avoid contact with them to prevent spreading the virus to them.

There really isn't any evidence for hand hygiene. Sure, it'll stop you from getting colds, but COVID? I don't think so. I wish people would stop talking about fomites.

Social distancing doesn't work inside.

[tomh009]

Todays numbers will continue to show that unvaccinated individuals are 17x  more likely to end up in the ICU than vaccinated (4.22 per 100k vs 0.25 per 100k), however, they are 31% less likely to contract Covid (56 per 100k unvaccinated vs 72 per 100k vaccinated).

What this shows is: 1) the vaccine continues to work to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations -- but it doesn't offer any extra protection against infection and 2) vaccinated individuals are not using any caution when going about their business.

Well ... not exactly. What has not changed is that the vaccines are still effective against Delta and other prior variants. Not 100%, but they significantly reduce infections.

What is new is the Omicron, which can escape the immunity provided by a two-dose vaccination (and possibly three-dose). Since Delta has trouble with this defence, Omicron now has about 80% of the population to itself, while Delta is attacking only 20%.

Omicron has other differences from Delta but much still remains to be discovered ... but, increasingly, it looks like we might need to look at Omicron and pre-Omicron as almost two different diseases.

[danbrotherston]

Todays numbers will continue to show that unvaccinated individuals are 17x  more likely to end up in the ICU than vaccinated (4.22 per 100k vs 0.25 per 100k), however, they are 31% less likely to contract Covid (56 per 100k unvaccinated vs 72 per 100k vaccinated).

What this shows is: 1) the vaccine continues to work to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations -- but it doesn't offer any extra protection against infection and 2) vaccinated individuals are not using any caution when going about their business.

Well ... not exactly. What has not changed is that the vaccines are still effective against Delta and other prior variants. Not 100%, but they significantly reduce infections.

What is new is the Omicron, which can escape the immunity provided by a two-dose vaccination (and possibly three-dose). Since Delta has trouble with this defence, Omicron now has about 80% of the population to itself, while Delta is attacking only 20%.

Omicron has other differences from Delta but much still remains to be discovered ... but, increasingly, it looks like we might need to look at Omicron and pre-Omicron as almost two different diseases.

Further it continues to be incorrect to make this statement. Vaccines affect people's behaviour, we've never been able to tell clearly from population data what effect the vaccination has, because you cannot separate behaviour from immunity.

What is clear is that the vaccine doesn't provide significant protection against infection, but it could still limit spread, again, people who are vaccinated get less sick, probably they are sick for less time, but they may also feel better, so it can affect the spread, but at this point, it's unclear how much and in which direction.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Toronto Public Health 574.5
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 564.2
• Halton Region Public Health 550.2
• York Region Public Health 523.2
• Durham Region Health Department 428.7
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 428.3
• Ottawa Public Health 423.9
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 423.0
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 416.8
• Lambton Public Health 413.1

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 352.0

• Huron Perth Public Health 250.4
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 248.3
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 230.2
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 222.7
• Northwestern Health Unit 220.1
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 206.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 190.6
• Algoma Public Health 178.3
• Timiskaming Health Unit 153.0
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 132.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 432.4

I imagine the numbers are going to get significantly worse due to Christmas celebrations as I doubt many were practicing social distancing and mask wearing while with family and friends.

[Spokes]

Couldn't numbers improve actually, since so many people are just self testing, many cases won't be documented

[jeffster]

Ontario to start offering 4th doses:

https://www.therecord.com/ts/politics/pr...arsely-api

Sorry, this is likely pay-walled.

[jeffster]

Todays numbers will continue to show that unvaccinated individuals are 17x  more likely to end up in the ICU than vaccinated (4.22 per 100k vs 0.25 per 100k), however, they are 31% less likely to contract Covid (56 per 100k unvaccinated vs 72 per 100k vaccinated).

What this shows is: 1) the vaccine continues to work to prevent serious illness and hospitalizations -- but it doesn't offer any extra protection against infection and 2) vaccinated individuals are not using any caution when going about their business.

Things to keep in mind: the vaccine doesn't prevent infection and it doesn't prevent the spread. Its only use is keeping you from becoming symptomatic and/or becoming seriously. ill. That means vaccinated people (along with the unvaccinated) need to wear a good mask, practise good hygiene including washing your hands regularly, and practise good social distancing, including members of your immediate family. This is especially true if you have young unvaccinated children (under 5) -- avoid contact with them to prevent spreading the virus to them.

There really isn't any evidence for hand hygiene. Sure, it'll stop you from getting colds, but COVID? I don't think so. I wish people would stop talking about fomites.

Social distancing doesn't work inside.

Since Covid-19 is technically the same as a cold virus, good hygiene, including washing your hands, will reduce risk of transmission.

https://www.who.int/southeastasia/news/d...0us%20safe.

[plam]

Since Covid-19 is technically the same as a cold virus, good hygiene, including washing your hands, will reduce risk of transmission.

https://www.who.int/southeastasia/news/d...0us%20safe.

I think it's the least important thing to emphasize, and there haven't been any documented fomite transmissions. Messages are best when they emphasize the most important thing, and hygiene theatre has distracted a lot of people from doing the things that they need to do to actually reduce risk. "Oh I'm safe I have plexiglass and I clean surfaces constantly!" Nope.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...er/614599/

“Surface transmission of COVID-19 is not justified at all by the science,” Emanuel Goldman, a microbiology professor at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, told me.

(Your statement isn't technically true either, it's a coronovirus vs a rhinovirus).

[danbrotherston]

Since Covid-19 is technically the same as a cold virus, good hygiene, including washing your hands, will reduce risk of transmission.

https://www.who.int/southeastasia/news/d...0us%20safe.

I think it's the least important thing to emphasize, and there haven't been any documented fomite transmissions. Messages are best when they emphasize the most important thing, and hygiene theatre has distracted a lot of people from doing the things that they need to do to actually reduce risk. "Oh I'm safe I have plexiglass and I clean surfaces constantly!" Nope.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...er/614599/

“Surface transmission of COVID-19 is not justified at all by the science,” Emanuel Goldman, a microbiology professor at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, told me.

(Your statement isn't technically true either, it's a coronovirus vs a rhinovirus).

While rhinoviruses make the majority of colds, some coronoviruses are also generally considered colds.

But the statement is false, shingles, chickenpox, cold sores, and genital herpes are all caused by different forms of the herpesvirus, that does not mean that they are all transmitted in the same way, or that precautions against one will protect you against the others.

[JoeKW]

Fourth doses for nursing home residences make sense... Probably 4 times a year while there are outbreaks. The antibodies give them a fighting chance to survive an infection. For most of the rest of the population it makes little sense. The risk from the virus for a 2 or 3x vaccinated person is very low. The vaccines are doing their jobs.

[jeffster]

A change: I am placing all PHU rather than the top 10 and bottom 10. I am cutting down on use of colours as I am running. For now, black is between 100 and 200, red for 200 and 500, and above 500 will be purple.

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 676.0
• Toronto Public Health 637.0
• Halton Region Public Health 626.6
• York Region Public Health 584.7
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 504.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 501.0
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 480.9
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 473.4
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 461.1
• Lambton Public Health 460.4
• Durham Region Health Department 457.3
• Brant County Health Unit 454.9
• Peel Public Health 451.1
• Ottawa Public Health 442.6

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 438.1

• Niagara Region Public Health 402.6
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 402.3
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 393.5
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 383.1
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 366.1
• Peterborough Public Health 361.5
• Southwestern Public Health 322.0
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 307.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 296.3
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 284.3
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 270.3
• Timiskaming Health Unit 266.1
• Huron Perth Public Health 253.3
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 250.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 242.4
• Northwestern Health Unit 237.2
• Algoma Public Health 199.2
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 198.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 160.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 486.4

I am fully expecting that these numbers will exceed 2,000-5,000 over the next 2 or 3 weeks, as people transition back to 'work' from Christmas holidays.

ONTARIO: Sports venues reduced to 1,000 max. This affects the OHL, so the Kitchener Rangers, as well as the Kitchener-Waterloo Titans, assuming we're still under restrictions when they start playing again.

Schools are to remained close to January 5th. Unsure if this is a good idea or not. Also unsure how a two day delay is going to make a difference. I suppose they'll drop more news on Monday.

[danbrotherston]

The announcements are not inspiring confidence. Testing is being scaled back, seems like we're entering the "giving up" phase of COVID.

[jeffster]

The announcements are not inspiring confidence. Testing is being scaled back, seems like we're entering the "giving up" phase of COVID.

"Giving up" though would likely include a 'just go out and enjoy the rest of your life, whatever is left of it', no?

To be honest, though, I really don't believe anyone really has an idea what really needs to be done, as likely no one really knows. Nobody is agreeing with anything either.

Most of the spread is still going to be close contact. Whatever those setting might be. I suppose school is one, and enough pressure from the teachers union to try to keep school closed.

I wish I had the answers.