The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

You can make that argument, and I'm sure it absolutely applies to some. But the reverse also applies to some, where they feel that Canada has no right to tell them what to do--of course they also seem to feel that their governments have no right to tell them what to do.  And which group of people do you think is more likely to travel against medical reccomendations right now?

[tomh009]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

You can make that argument, and I'm sure it absolutely applies to some. But the reverse also applies to some, where they feel that Canada has no right to tell them what to do--of course they also seem to feel that their governments have no right to tell them what to do.  And which group of people do you think is more likely to travel against medical reccomendations right now?

I'm thinking of people on work permits, most of whom are from developing countries. For them, a Canadian work permit is generally very, very valuable, and being deported rules that out for the future as well.

Most of the people rebelling against the government rules are from that country south of the border, and are much less likely to be coming here on a work permit.

[danbrotherston]

You can make that argument, and I'm sure it absolutely applies to some. But the reverse also applies to some, where they feel that Canada has no right to tell them what to do--of course they also seem to feel that their governments have no right to tell them what to do.  And which group of people do you think is more likely to travel against medical reccomendations right now?

I'm thinking of people on work permits, most of whom are from developing countries. For them, a Canadian work permit is generally very, very valuable, and being deported rules that out for the future as well.

Most of the people rebelling against the government rules are from that country south of the border, and are much less likely to be coming here on a work permit.

Yeah, I was speaking of Americans specifically. I have far less problems with other countries. In addition to those other countries having a very different social situation, there are also far less who would or could travel here, they do so for different reasons, and largely, they have far smaller outbreaks of the virus.  I am exclusively concerned about our border with the US.

[tomh009]

Understood!

[ijmorlan]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

Mandatory quarantine should mean the person stays where they say they will be, and if they’re found not to be there, then they pay a fine and spend the rest of the quarantine in jail. This is for citizens. “Mandatory” means “mandatory”.

[tomh009]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

Mandatory quarantine should mean the person stays where they say they will be, and if they’re found not to be there, then they pay a fine and spend the rest of the quarantine in jail. This is for citizens. “Mandatory” means “mandatory”.

Oh, yes. But I think we'd need some new legislation for that, I don't think we can do that by regulation only.

[ijmorlan]

Oh, yes. But I think we'd need some new legislation for that, I don't think we can do that by regulation only.

There is a lot of long-term planning and change that is needed for future pandemics.

My prediction is none of it will happen. But who knows. This year some events are showing signs of possibly leading to actual change.

I remember in high school we used the year 2020 as a target year for “what will the world be like in the future?”.

[panamaniac]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

Mandatory quarantine should mean the person stays where they say they will be, and if they’re found not to be there, then they pay a fine and spend the rest of the quarantine in jail. This is for citizens. “Mandatory” means “mandatory”.

In a hotel rented by the authorities for that purpose, more likely.

[panamaniac]

Mandatory quarantine should mean the person stays where they say they will be, and if they’re found not to be there, then they pay a fine and spend the rest of the quarantine in jail. This is for citizens. “Mandatory” means “mandatory”.

Oh, yes. But I think we'd need some new legislation for that, I don't think we can do that by regulation only.

It's more or less being done now - people arriving in Canada without a quarantine plan are being put into hotels for a 14 day quarantine period.

[ijmorlan]

In a hotel rented by the authorities for that purpose, more likely.

I’m talking about if they leave without authorization. I don’t actually want to dump a bunch of people in jail, I just think that we should not use the word “mandatory” if we’re not actually making something mandatory.

[plam]

Sorry, I had the impression there were people who were unable to return to their families. I agree it’s OK not to allow tourists.

That being said, I’m not proposing to trust people to follow the rules — when I talk about quarantine, it’s enforced. If the entrant is not in their hotel room when they’re inspected, they would be deported forthwith (i.e., as soon as they are found they are arrested, taken directly to a judge, and then taken back to the border).

I’m more concerned about crossings that are completely unauthorized. They seem to happen all the time normally, and, similar to Prohibition, would be expected to increase if the normal channels are closed.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and immediate family members thereof. It would probably be unconstitutional to keep me from re-entering Canada, for instance. Being able to reach Canada is not the government's problem, though.

Canada uses the words "isolation" and "quarantine" with directly opposite meanings to those in New Zealand. In Canada, isolation is for those with symptoms, while quarantine is for those without.

https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/health-s...otices/221

"Failure to comply with this Order is an offense under the Quarantine Act. Maximum penalties include a fine of up to $750,000 and/or imprisonment for six months."

I don't know whether it has been enforced or not.

As for irregular border crossers:

https://irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/statistics/Pag...stics.aspx

I don't think that Canadians would generally cross irregularly, because the consequences for being caught are much higher. Looks like we had 16,000 irregular crossings in 2019.

[plam]

PS apparently when you cross into Canada:

"The sisters had to give an oath they would follow public health guidelines. If not, they were told, they could be fined up to $1 million and possibly face jail time."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...-1.5627537

The RCMP (and I presume other police forces) are checking up on people and the overwhelming majority (all but 4) are where they said they would be:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronaviru...-1.4949021

(Some of the people in NZ who have exited managed isolation but not gotten tested turned out to be unreachable; presumably they didn't have NZ phone numbers yet. But they have been isolation for 14 days.)

[ijmorlan]

I don't think that Canadians would generally cross irregularly, because the consequences for being caught are much higher. Looks like we had 16,000 irregular crossings in 2019.

Thanks for looking up all this information.

My concern with irregular crossings is that we could have infected people from the USA, possibly including ones who normally would just cross at an entry point, coming in and re-igniting our outbreak.

I’m feeling pretty good about our numbers; I see from the numbers that Ontario is back under 2000 active cases, which I believe puts us at numbers we haven’t seen since March. Continuing on this path would mean that we could be back to 0 by the fall. But it wouldn’t take many infections coming across the border to re-start the whole thing.

By the way, thank you to the person who has kept posting the numbers every day. I really appreciate the updates.

[tomh009]

It's a weekend off for Waterloo Region reporting so we need to wait until  Monday.

Ontario reported 160 new cases, a very reasonable number, for a seven-day average of 168 new cases. 178 recoveries and only eight deaths translate to a drop of 26 active cases, now down to 1,892, and a weekly total change of -346. Another new testing record, of 33,492 tests today for a 0.5% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.7% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 8.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.2% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population is down to 252 (-4) and the ICU population is at another new low of 54 (-7).

[plam]

My concern with irregular crossings is that we could have infected people from the USA, possibly including ones who normally would just cross at an entry point, coming in and re-igniting our outbreak.

I’m feeling pretty good about our numbers; I see from the numbers that Ontario is back under 2000 active cases, which I believe puts us at numbers we haven’t seen since March. Continuing on this path would mean that we could be back to 0 by the fall. But it wouldn’t take many infections coming across the border to re-start the whole thing.

Irregular crossers bringing COVID with them could be a concern. Flights might be more of a concern. I'm unclear how much checking is going on for people who re-enter Canada from the US by air. I suspect that those numbers are higher.

It would be good if the numbers stayed at 0 for the fall. It seems to me that good border enforcement / quarantine is the key here. Certainly people (or the media) complained a lot about the self-isolation not being good enough and seemed to prefer government-managed isolation. There has been an additional kerfuffle about that recently, but no evidence that it has escaped the 14 days, despite opposition politicians claiming so (with no evidence).