The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

Unless or until the provinces ask for the national government to take the helm, letting the provinces decide for themselves IS the national program.  The national government can inform, encourage, cajole, and transfer funds.  Federalism and the Constitution in action.

Exactly. Healthcare is a provincial responsibility, and the federal government cannot overrule that. It's the constitution ...

In theory they could in an emergency, but one has to wonder how triggering a constitutional crisis in the middle of a pandemic would be helpful ...

[danbrotherston]

The government did very little for businesses. They provided CERB instead for folks who lost their jobs. If they had paid small businesses instead, it would have been different.

Uhh,  Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) covered up to 75% of the employees' wages. It's nothing to scoff at, even if it has limitations.

Fair enough, we didn't do nothing, there was also some (very) limited rent support.

But I think the absolute terror at locking down shows just how ineffective and poorly communicated these policies are.

[danbrotherston]

FRIDAY 2020-11-13

Waterloo Region reported 45 new cases for today (16.7% of the active cases).  283 new cases for the week (+10), averaging 18.6% of active cases -- actually a drop from yesterday. 286 active cases (+112 in the last seven days). While 40+ cases per days is definitely not good, at least it has been fairly stable for the last few days, averaging 44 cases for the past four days.

1,232 tests for the past week (an improvement) for a 3.28% positivity rate. Note that this is higher than the new 2.5% positivity threshold for the red stage of the framework!

Ontario reported 1,396 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,355 (+56). 1,018 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to an increase of 359 active cases, and a current total of 11,630. +3,232 active cases for the week, and 103 deaths. 40,509 tests resulted in a 3.45% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.84% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 106 (+8) and the overall hospital population is 452 (+72 in the past week).

• 440 cases in Toronto: 15.2 per 100K population
  
• 440 cases in Peel: 44.0 per 100K
  
• 155 cases in York: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Hamilton: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Ottawa: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Durham: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 43 cases in Waterloo: 6.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)[/color]
  

GTA has 1100+ cases again; most of the region is now a red zone.

Overheard on the news while on the phone, London-Middlesex health unit has requested (volunteered) to be in the "Red zone", their numbers in some instances look even worse than ours.

[danbrotherston]

Here's the thing guys, things won't get better until two things happen: 1) People start listening to the government and 2) We have a vaccine.

I don't blame "This government" as I think they are dong the best they can. Our federal government has been complete silent on having some sort of national program, and instead, letting provinces decide for themselves, and further, letting local governments decide for themselves.

As for the province and the country itself, we have actually done very well compared to most other countries - the exception are some Asian countries (like China and South Korea). Just look at the USA, be it a liberal or conservative state, they have all suffered almost equally. And again, the issue has been people simple not listening to the science and government authorities.

But as I said, we can do better if people practice things like social distancing, wearing a mask (and not using lame excuses not to), and having a very limited social bubble. Short of that, since this likely won't happen here, since many value their freedom and "rights" over anything else, we'll need to wait for a vaccine.

Comparing us with the US is like playing at the childrens table, yeah, we're doing well compared with the US, but lets set our sights a little higher.

Just telling people to do thing will not achieve much (our Premier has been trying this for months), especially when it is in the face of contradictory permissions, why can I go to a bar with 50 other people, but I can't have 50 people to my house?  The government absolutely can take steps to limit the spread, they already did in March.

[danbrotherston]

But as I said, we can do better if people practice things like social distancing, wearing a mask (and not using lame excuses not to), and having a very limited social bubble. Short of that, since this likely won't happen here, since many value their freedom and "rights" over anything else, we'll need to wait for a vaccine.

Those people don’t know what freedom is. They just don’t like being told that they have to do something for the good of everybody.

I value my freedom and the freedom of others, and it is for that reason that I think initial Covid reactions should have been much stronger (border quarantines, shutdowns, etc.).

We do have a national border quarantine, our local columnist already complained about how scary it was.

But in general, I agree completely. The freedoms that I value are finanacial and health security and safety.  Not being able to tell someone to piss off when I threaten their safety.

[plam]

As for the province and the country itself, we have actually done very well compared to most other countries - the exception are some Asian countries (like China and South Korea). Just look at the USA, be it a liberal or conservative state, they have all suffered almost equally. And again, the issue has been people simple not listening to the science and government authorities.

I'd say Canada's response is a D verging towards D- compared to the US's F. Apart from some Asian countries (yes, China and South Korea, but also Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Mongolia), plus Australia (4 month lockdown in Melbourne but now it looks like it's eliminated) and New Zealand, there is also Africa, which we don't really know much about. Ghana was doing well for a while, had a surge, and now seems (barely) under control again. Also Trinidad and Tobago.

But as I said, we can do better if people practice things like social distancing, wearing a mask (and not using lame excuses not to), and having a very limited social bubble. Short of that, since this likely won't happen here, since many value their freedom and "rights" over anything else, we'll need to wait for a vaccine.

I'm thinking these things are difficult to get people to do voluntarily (even in NZ, which is only now mandating masks on transit when at the lowest alert level after yet another community transmission scare.)

[ac3r]

1'581 new cases in Ontario. We're definitely on track to hitting the December projection of 6'500 a day.

[panamaniac]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

1'581 new cases in Ontario. We're definitely on track to hitting the December projection of 6'500 a day.

Premier Ford needs to find a pair.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-11-14

Waterloo Region reported 54 new cases for today (18.4% of the active cases).  317 new cases for the week (+34), averaging 19.3% of active cases. 318 active cases (+134 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,581 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,419 (+63). 1,003 recoveries and 20 deaths translated to an increase of 558 active cases, and a current total of 12,188. +3,521 active cases for the week, and 112 deaths -- that's 16 deaths per day now. 44,837 tests resulted in a 3.53% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.93% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 107 (+1) and the overall hospital population is 502 (+118 in the past week).

• 497 cases in Peel: 36.3 per 100K
  
• 456 cases in Toronto: 15.4 per 100K population
  
• 130 cases in York: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Ottawa: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Durham: 9.5 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Halton: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 34 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 34 cases in Hamilton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Waterloo: 10.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)[/color]
  

GTA has 1199 cases.

[jeffster]

I am still confused with the difference of reporting from the Region and the Province.

Either way, we're headed for red. Looks like we're getting what we deserved for not following guidelines.

[tomh009]

I am still confused with the difference of reporting from the Region and the Province.

It's all in the timing of the data. The provincial reporting is roughly one day behind. Sorry for the confusion, I was trying to reconcile them at first but in the end I decided that for the regional comparison the provincial data was good enough -- and it's what we have for all the other regions anyway.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-11-15

Waterloo Region reported 67 new cases for today (21.1% of the active cases).  349 new cases for the week (+32), averaging 19.6% of active cases. 361 active cases (+164 in the last seven days).

Our overall case load is still lower than the provincial average, but going up much faster than the rest of the province: in the last two weeks, the number of new cases and the number of active cases have both gone up by roughly 50% in Ontario, but both have tripled in Waterloo Region. There is certainly no room to be smug about our performance, a downgrade to red is beckoning soon at this rate.

Next testing report on Tuesday, but the region's dashboard indicates an average positivity of 3.6% for the past week.

Ontario reported 1,288 new cases today (or possibly 1,248, I can't quite be sure given the adjustment they made) with a seven-day average of 1,414 (-5). 1,062 recoveries and 29 deaths translated to an increase of 197 active cases, and a current total of 12,385. +3,280 active cases for the week, and 128 deaths. 42,206 tests resulted in a 3.05% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.86% for the past seven days.

Regarding the death rate, at the peak of the first wave, in April, we averaged 30 deaths per day. We have now hit 29, although admittedly that is only for a single day so far. But even though the cases tend to be less severe, there is no doubt that people are dying of COVID-19 again, and in larger numbers.

ICU bed count is up to 118 (+11) but thankfully still at about half the April levels.

• 364 cases in Toronto: 12.6 per 100K population
  
• 308 cases in Peel: 20.3 per 100K
  
• 125 cases in York: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Ottawa: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Durham: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Halton: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Hamilton: 6.41 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 26 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 24 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
  
• 23 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 23 cases in Niagara: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)[/color]
  

GTA has 887 cases, a significant drop, but a single data point doesn't make it a trend yet.

[ac3r]

Well, I guess I should book a haircut soon...I might start looking a bit rough if we go into the red.

[panamaniac]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

Well, I guess I should book a haircut soon...I might start looking a bit rough if we go into the red.

I’m thinking that a toilet paper run this week might not be a bad idea ...

[tomh009]

Well, I guess I should book a haircut soon...I might start looking a bit rough if we go into the red.

I’m thinking that a toilet paper run this week might not be a bad idea ...

Unless you have the runs, how much toilet paper does a person need anyway? We don't have much TP storage space in the condo, but we have still only replenished once since the start of the pandemic ...

I still have the clippers I bought in the spring so hair can be taken care of. But maybe I need to do another LCBO run this week?