The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-12-05

Waterloo Region reported 29 new cases for today (4.5% of the active cases).  452 new cases for the week (-56), averaging 11.3% of active cases. 534 active cases (+12 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,859 new cases today -- a new record, albeit only by 4 cases, and with more testing -- with a seven-day average of 1,764 (+5). 1,624 recoveries and 20 deaths translated to an increase of 215 active cases, and a current total of 15,212. +1,674 active cases for the week and 133 deaths. 59,399 tests (a new record) resulted in a 3.13% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.75% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.53% for the preceding seven.

202 patients in ICU (-5) and 709 in hospital overall (+114 in the past seven days).

• 463 cases in Peel: 33.5 per 100K
  
• 86 cases in Windsor-Essex: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Eastern Ontario: 20.2 per 100K
  
• 198 cases in York: 17.8 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 17.6 per 100K
  
• 504 cases in Toronto: 17.2 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Hamilton: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Halton: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Waterloo: 10.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 44 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Ottawa: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Durham: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Middlesex-London: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Niagara: 5.1 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

Trump is not an outlier, you have a strong trend, Johnson, Bolsinaro, there are other examples.

These latest right wing extremists governments have nothing to do with historic progressive conservative values.  And it has little to do with the excessively simplified "left/right, liberal/conservative" dichotimy.

I think a better label here is "populist" (or maybe "authoritarian") as you will get many different types that have heavily botched up their countries' COVID responses.

Adding to your list above: AMLO (Mexico). Morawiecki (Poland). Lukashenko (Belarus). Magufuli (Tanzania). Orban (Hungary). And, yes, there are more.

[danbrotherston]

Trump is not an outlier, you have a strong trend, Johnson, Bolsinaro, there are other examples.

These latest right wing extremists governments have nothing to do with historic progressive conservative values.  And it has little to do with the excessively simplified "left/right, liberal/conservative" dichotimy.

I think a better label here is "populist" (or maybe "authoritarian") as you will get many different types that have heavily botched up their countries' COVID responses.

Adding to your list above: AMLO (Mexico). Morawiecki (Poland). Lukashenko (Belarus). Magufuli (Tanzania). Orban (Hungary). And, yes, there are more.

Yes, that label may be a bit more specific...but it really seems to be a pretty complete takeover of right wing parties...almost everywhere we look right now.

[jordan2423]

Trump is not an outlier, you have a strong trend, Johnson, Bolsinaro, there are other examples.

These latest right wing extremists governments have nothing to do with historic progressive conservative values.  And it has little to do with the excessively simplified "left/right, liberal/conservative" dichotimy.

I think a better label here is "populist" (or maybe "authoritarian") as you will get many different types that have heavily botched up their countries' COVID responses.

Adding to your list above: AMLO (Mexico). Morawiecki (Poland). Lukashenko (Belarus). Magufuli (Tanzania). Orban (Hungary). And, yes, there are more.

Trump is a fake populist though...

In 2016 he ran a populist campaign, promising to end the wars in the middle east, promising to get universal healthcare to all people etc. etc. But as we found out through his presidency, this was all a lie. 

The same thing was done in 2008 with Obama, he ran a populist campaign in 2008, again, promising to end the wars, promising universal healthcare for americans, promising to raise minimum wage, etc. etc...

But as we found out, that didn't happen...

So long as money in politics is a thing in American politics, people like Bernie Sanders - real populists - will be shut out.
As long as billionaires, multi-national corporations, etc., can donate unlimited amounts of money to a campaign, this stuff will continue to happen.

We are seeing fake populists - that are extremely right wing - around the world being elected, in large part to the world social media has created. Social media has created significant divisiveness around the world because all the big social media companies, with regards to their algorithm, promotes things that creates the most engagement. Things that create the most engagement are negative in nature. 

There is so much divisiveness because social media - based on the data it collects from you - caters exactly to what it thinks will capture your attention. If you and I had the exact same followers, our home feed would be completely different because the algorithm shows us things that it knows will capture our attention.

sorry for the slightly long post, but things will not change unless these big tech companies are broken up, and regulated.

We are 10 years into this large social experiment of behaviour modification tools called Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat, or TikTok. And just in these 10 years, the world has significantly changed, and not for the better...

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-12-06

Waterloo Region reported 61 new cases for today (11.4% of the active cases).  438 new cases for the week (-14), averaging 10.9% of active cases. 524 active cases (-34 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,924 new cases today -- another new record -- with a seven-day average of 1,795 (+31). 1,574 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 335 active cases, and a current total of 15,547. +1,768 active cases for the week and 124 deaths. 59,251 tests resulted in a 3.25% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.76% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.51% for the preceding seven.

204 patients in ICU (+2).

• 477 cases in Peel: 34.5 per 100K
  
• 249 cases in York: 22.4 per 100K
  
• 568 cases in Toronto: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Durham: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Hamilton: 15.0 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Halton: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Niagara: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Waterloo: 7.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 61 cases in Ottawa: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.4 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Hey Tom, do you have any idea why the RoW numbers are always different than the province? It doesn't seem to be reporting days difference, as numbers and dates never match, even if it's off by one day.

[jeffster]

"Trump Virus" is trending on Twitter.

Okay, so hear me out: This is why this is a great idea. His staff wants to call the vaccine the "Trump Vaccine". So we have a certain rule we have to follow when it comes to vaccines. Really simple, actually. For example, the polio virus, we have the polio vaccine, measles virus, measles vaccine, etc. So if Trump want's to call it "The Trump Vaccine", then we need to call this virus "The Trump Virus". Okay, so hear me out for the rest: The US is the hardest hit country, and Trump and Friends haven't taken this seriously, and fail to call the virus by it's proper name, covid-19, or Corona Virus. They prefer to call it "The China Virus". However, if we call it "The China Virus", the vaccine has to be called "The China Vaccine". Calling to "The China Virus" isn't exactly politically correct. And, by all means, a similar virus, The Spanish Flu, which actually originated in the US, sets a precedent that one doesn't need to name a virus after its alleged original location. And both "The Trump Virus" and "The Trump Vaccine" are great sounding. And it's only fitting because Trump and all his friends and even family have gotten the virus, and it's all related to Trump.

Therefore, this is my formal request to change the title from covid-19 pandemic to "The Trump Pandemic". Thanks.

[panamaniac]

I’d vote for anything that omits the name “Trump”.  With any luck, it will join “Arnold” and “Mudd” in the annals of U.S. infamy.  To Trump will mean to lie, bully, and cheat to get something one does not deserve and cannot earn honourably.

[danbrotherston]

"Trump Virus" is trending on Twitter.

Okay, so hear me out: This is why this is a great idea. His staff wants to call the vaccine the "Trump Vaccine". So we have a certain rule we have to follow when it comes to vaccines. Really simple, actually. For example, the polio virus, we have the polio vaccine, measles virus, measles vaccine, etc. So if Trump want's to call it "The Trump Vaccine", then we need to call this virus "The Trump Virus". Okay, so hear me out for the rest: The US is the hardest hit country, and Trump and Friends haven't taken this seriously, and fail to call the virus by it's proper name, covid-19, or Corona Virus. They prefer to call it "The China Virus". However, if we call it "The China Virus", the vaccine has to be called "The China Vaccine". Calling to "The China Virus" isn't exactly politically correct. And, by all means, a similar virus, The Spanish Flu, which actually originated in the US, sets a precedent that one doesn't need to name a virus after its alleged original location. And both "The Trump Virus" and "The Trump Vaccine" are great sounding. And it's only fitting because Trump and all his friends and even family have gotten the virus, and it's all related to Trump.

Therefore, this is my formal request to change the title from covid-19 pandemic to "The Trump Pandemic". Thanks.

I'm definitely sympathetic to calling it the Trump Virus, that said, when I hear the term "Trump Virus" I immediately think of Trump's brainwashing of Americans (and people all over the world), and sadly, for that, we have no vaccine and no treatment.

[tomh009]

Hey Tom, do you have any idea why the RoW numbers are always different than the province? It doesn't seem to be reporting days difference, as numbers and dates never match, even if it's off by one day.

It's really confusing. The timing is different, that's one factor. And the province reports a single number whereas the region often adjusts the prior days' numbers (though not by as much as before). I'm looking at publishing weekly numbers to reduce the impact of the confusion.

And then the regional numbers don't quite add up. The total number of cases is 11 higher than the sum of active cases, recovered cases and deaths. What happened to those 11?

However, in the end it's noise. Mostly our data is decent, and I appreciate that everyone has found a way to make it available so that we can se what's happening.

[ijmorlan]

I’d vote for anything that omits the name “Trump”.  With any luck, it will join “Arnold” and “Mudd” in the annals of U.S. infamy.  To Trump will mean to lie, bully, and cheat to get something one does not deserve and cannot earn honourably.

Yes, he really trumped up the vaccine response. With any luck he will cause the Republican party to trump up the Georgia special election. I just hope his actions in the last few weeks of his presidency don’t trump up the US federal bureaucracy too much for the next few years.

[ac3r]

Looks like BNT162b2 is going to be formally approved in a couple days. The first quarter million doses should be in Canada by the end of this month and will go to long term care home residents and staff. Makes me wish I was still working in them this year when we were inspecting HVAC! Haha. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau...-1.5830938

We have - unsurprisingly - broke another record for cases in the province with 1'925, 61 of them here in Waterloo Region.

[tomh009]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 478.6 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 548.4 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  
• An average of 188.1 cases in York: 16.9 per 100K: UP 10.7/day
  
• An average of 57.1 cases in Windsor-Essex: 14.7 per 100K: UP 0.1/day
  
• An average of 89.3 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K: DOWN 1.5/day
  
• An average of 69.0 cases in Hamilton: 11.9 per 100K: UP 5.1/day
  
• An average of 66.1 cases in Waterloo: 10.7 per 100K: DOWN 6.7/day
  
• An average of 27.3 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.0 per 100K: UP 5.2/day
  
• An average of 54.9 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K: UP 2.1/day
  
• An average of 16.4 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.1 per 100K: UP 4.1/day
  
• An average of 32.3 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.0 per 100K: DOWN 2.7/day
  
• An average of 40.1 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.4 per 100K: UP 1.9/day
  
• An average of 23.4 cases in Niagara: 5.2 per 100K: UP 3.2/day
  
• An average of 48.3 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K: UP 5.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

[tomh009]

Looks like BNT162b2 is going to be formally approved in a couple days. The first quarter million doses should be in Canada by the end of this month and will go to long term care home residents and staff. Makes me wish I was still working in them this year when we were inspecting HVAC! Haha. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau...-1.5830938

Pfizer has said that they can ship within 24 hours of Health Canada approval.