The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 478.6 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 548.4 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  
• An average of 188.1 cases in York: 16.9 per 100K: UP 10.7/day
  
• An average of 57.1 cases in Windsor-Essex: 14.7 per 100K: UP 0.1/day
  
• An average of 89.3 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K: DOWN 1.5/day
  
• An average of 69.0 cases in Hamilton: 11.9 per 100K: UP 5.1/day
  
• An average of 66.1 cases in Waterloo: 10.7 per 100K: DOWN 6.7/day
  
• An average of 27.3 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.0 per 100K: UP 5.2/day
  
• An average of 54.9 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K: UP 2.1/day
  
• An average of 16.4 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.1 per 100K: UP 4.1/day
  
• An average of 32.3 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.0 per 100K: DOWN 2.7/day
  
• An average of 40.1 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.4 per 100K: UP 1.9/day
  
• An average of 23.4 cases in Niagara: 5.2 per 100K: UP 3.2/day
  
• An average of 48.3 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K: UP 5.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

I don't suppose you could run the numbers for Hastings/Prince-Edward-County?

[tomh009]

I don't suppose you could run the numbers for Hastings/Prince-Edward-County?

An average of 5.6 cases in Hastings-Prince Edward: 4.8 per 100K: DOWN 0.1/day

[Rainrider22]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 512 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 601 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  
• An average of 167 cases in York: 16.9 per 100K: UP 10.7/day
  
• An average of 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 14.7 per 100K: UP 0.1/day
  
• An average of 133 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K: DOWN 1.5/day
  
• An average of 76 cases in Hamilton: 11.9 per 100K: UP 5.1/day
  
• An average of 61 cases in Waterloo: 10.7 per 100K: DOWN 6.7/day
  
• An average of 30 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.0 per 100K: UP 5.2/day
  
• An average of 54 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K: UP 2.1/day
  
• An average of 22 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.1 per 100K: UP 4.1/day
  
• An average of 23 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.0 per 100K: DOWN 2.7/day
  
• An average of 60 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.4 per 100K: UP 1.9/day
  
• An average of 27 cases in Niagara: 5.2 per 100K: UP 3.2/day
  
• An average of 48 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K: UP 5.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

I like it,  thank you for your efforts...

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-12-07

Waterloo Region reported 56 new cases for today (10.6% of the active cases).  441 new cases for the week (+3), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 512 active cases (-63 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,925 new cases today -- one more than yesterday's record -- with a seven-day average of 1,820 (+25). 1,412 recoveries and 26 deaths translated to an increase of 487 active cases, and a current total of 16,034. +1,567 active cases for the week and 142 deaths. 45,283 tests resulted in a 4.25% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.73% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.53% for the preceding seven.

213 patients in ICU (+9).

• 512 cases in Peel: 37.0 per 100K
  
• 133 cases in Durham: 20.6 per 100K
  
• 601 cases in Toronto: 20.5 per 100K
  
• 167 cases in York: 15.0 per 100K
  
• 76 cases in Hamilton: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 60 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.1 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Eastern Ontario: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Waterloo: 9.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 54 cases in Halton: 9.8 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Ottawa: 4.8 per 100K
  

[plam]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 478.6 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 548.4 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

Looks good. UP/DOWN is compared to the previous week's average? Maybe a % diff from the previous week would be good too.

[tomh009]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 478.6 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 548.4 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

Looks good. UP/DOWN is compared to the previous week's average? Maybe a % diff from the previous week would be good too.

It's actually the slope of the straight-line linear regression with the seven days as data points -- effectively the seven-day trend.

By next week I'll have more data (without having to go back), I'll see what I can do with it.

[jwilliamson]

This is a seven-day average of new cases by region, including a straight-line trend calculation

• An average of 478.6 cases in Peel: 34.6 per 100K: UP 7.1/day
  
• An average of 548.4 cases in Toronto: 18.7 per 100K: DOWN 7.9/day
  
• An average of 188.1 cases in York: 16.9 per 100K: UP 10.7/day
  
• An average of 57.1 cases in Windsor-Essex: 14.7 per 100K: UP 0.1/day
  
• An average of 89.3 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K: DOWN 1.5/day
  
• An average of 69.0 cases in Hamilton: 11.9 per 100K: UP 5.1/day
  
• An average of 66.1 cases in Waterloo: 10.7 per 100K: DOWN 6.7/day
  
• An average of 27.3 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.0 per 100K: UP 5.2/day
  
• An average of 54.9 cases in Halton: 10.0 per 100K: UP 2.1/day
  
• An average of 16.4 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.1 per 100K: UP 4.1/day
  
• An average of 32.3 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.0 per 100K: DOWN 2.7/day
  
• An average of 40.1 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.4 per 100K: UP 1.9/day
  
• An average of 23.4 cases in Niagara: 5.2 per 100K: UP 3.2/day
  
• An average of 48.3 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K: UP 5.9/day
  

Is this useful? If yes, I can calculate and post a few times a week.

This was quite useful. Thanks for posting it and for your regular daily posts.

[plam]

Looks good. UP/DOWN is compared to the previous week's average? Maybe a % diff from the previous week would be good too.

It's actually the slope of the straight-line linear regression with the seven days as data points -- effectively the seven-day trend.

By next week I'll have more data (without having to go back), I'll see what I can do with it.

Got it. Thanks!

[jeffster]

Looks good. UP/DOWN is compared to the previous week's average? Maybe a % diff from the previous week would be good too.

It's actually the slope of the straight-line linear regression with the seven days as data points -- effectively the seven-day trend.

By next week I'll have more data (without having to go back), I'll see what I can do with it.

I am wondering if you could do weekly per 100K -- this seems to be what the province looks at to determine which colour a region should be in. I believe 100/100K weekly means code grey. I do know that Waterloo Region is at 88.8/100K, down from 91.4/100K yesterday.

[tomh009]

It's actually the slope of the straight-line linear regression with the seven days as data points -- effectively the seven-day trend.

By next week I'll have more data (without having to go back), I'll see what I can do with it.

I am wondering if you could do weekly per 100K -- this seems to be what the province looks at to determine which colour a region should be in. I believe 100/100K weekly means code grey.  I do know that Waterloo Region is at 88.8/100K, down from 91.4/100K yesterday.

I wonder how they get to 88.8; where did you find this number? My numbers, above, from the Ontario COVID epidemiologic summaries, average out to only about 75/100K on a weekly basis (10.7/100K on a daily basis).

This rate is only one of the factors, though. But York certainly looks like it's going to get locked down next week.

[tomh009]

While the provincial government is not going to force people to get vaccinated, it's nice to see that they are planning to put in some serious incentives to do it. They are contemplating restricting access to hospitals, LTC homes, schools and/or travel to people who have been vaccinated. It's not a finished plan yet, but I'm happy to see that incentives will be in place to get vaccinated.

[danbrotherston]

While the provincial government is not going to force people to get vaccinated, it's nice to see that they are planning to put in some serious incentives to do it. They are contemplating restricting access to hospitals, LTC homes, schools and/or travel to people who have been vaccinated. It's not a finished plan yet, but I'm happy to see that incentives will be in place to get vaccinated.

Indeed, this is exactly the types of policies I like to see.

I recognize the rights of people to have autonomy over themselves. Government mandated vaccines would be an extreme measure (albeit one that could be warranted in certain circumstances).  But tying a vaccine requirement to partaking in social and societal services and activities makes perfect sense. I.e., you're allowed to be an anti-social individual, but you aren't allowed to benefit from social activies or societal services if you do. Society is pay to play.

[jeffster]

I am wondering if you could do weekly per 100K -- this seems to be what the province looks at to determine which colour a region should be in. I believe 100/100K weekly means code grey.  I do know that Waterloo Region is at 88.8/100K, down from 91.4/100K yesterday.

I wonder how they get to 88.8; where did you find this number? My numbers, above,  from the Ontario COVID epidemiologic summaries, average out to only about 75/100K on a weekly basis (10.7/100K on a daily basis).

This rate is only one of the factors, though. But York certainly looks like it's going to get locked down next week.

It could be a different in population reporting: What the region reports vs what Canada reports.

Here is where I am getting my information (and I believe this user works for the Ministry of Health, though I could be wrong).

https://www.dslreports.com/forum/r326797...tart=15800

User is

Walkter Dnes

and he updates daily just after 10:30 am.

[tomh009]

It could be that he's using 2016 census numbers rather than current estimates, but even that is only a 10% difference.

[ac3r]

While the provincial government is not going to force people to get vaccinated, it's nice to see that they are planning to put in some serious incentives to do it. They are contemplating restricting access to hospitals, LTC homes, schools and/or travel to people who have been vaccinated. It's not a finished plan yet, but I'm happy to see that incentives will be in place to get vaccinated.

This is a very good way to go about it. Restrict access to certain things for those who don't want to get vaccinated. Those against vaccinations will cry about it, but it's their choice to be a walking health risk. We already do slightly similar things anyways...for example, to work in places like hospitals and LTC homes you need to have certain up to date vaccinations.