The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

Case count today was 844 (May 20). Yesterdays (May 19) case count was 1,000 (965 plus 35 additional). The case count for the day prior lost 62 cases.

[megabytephreak]

Case count today was 844 (May 20). Yesterdays (May 19) case count was 1,000 (965 plus 35 additional). The case count for the day prior lost 62 cases.

Again, this is a highly inaccurate way to present the data.

It takes about 2-3 days past the episode date to reach 50% of the eventual case count for a given date.
It takes 7-8 days lately to hit 90% of the final tally. This is expected and normal, since people take time to get sick and get tested.
It means that using episode date based numbers like you are doing here can only be done retrospectively by at lease a week and preferably more like 10-14 days.

This is my data source:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...range=D163

Claiming the case count was 844 is highly misleading, and in my opinion irresponsible.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-21 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	468	33.9	500	36.1	-17%
Toronto	469	16.0	614	20.9	-30%
Hamilton	111	19.2	119	20.5	+7%
Durham	107	16.6	124	19.1	-35%
York	165	14.9	183	16.5	-31%
Middlesex-London	71	17.5	62	15.2	-11%
Brant	10	7.4	20	14.5	-47%
Halton	70	12.8	75	13.7	-24%
Niagara	34	7.6	60	13.5	-39%
Windsor-Essex	31	8.0	42	10.9	-10%
Huron Perth	11	11.2	10	10.3	-61%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	26	9.6	28	10.3	-33%
Waterloo	48	7.8	63	10.2	-25%
Simcoe-Muskoka	43	8.0	51	9.4	-17%
Ottawa	62	6.2	90	9.1	-27%
Lambton	10	7.6	10	7.9	-34%
Southwestern Ontario	15	7.5	14	7.1	-32%
Eastern Ontario	7	3.5	13	6.6	-20%
Northwestern	6	6.8	4	5.0	-44%
Kingston Frontenac	7	3.4	8	3.8	-16%
Chatham-Kent	1	.9	4	3.3	-33%
Thunder Bay	1	.7	3	2.2	-55%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	4	2.4	3	1.8	+62%
Sudbury	1	.3	5	1.2	-70%
Ontario total					-23%

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-05-21

Waterloo Region reported 64 new cases for today (13.1% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 64; 416 new cases for the week (-23), averaging 11.5% of active cases. 510 active cases, -21 in the last seven days.

1,007 tests/day for the past week for a positivity rate of 5.90%.

5,860 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,325. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (-3 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 20 days (-3).

Ontario reported 1,890 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,064 (-67). 2,689 recoveries and 27 deaths translated to a decrease of 826 active cases and a new total of 22,200. -5,869 active cases for the week and 148 deaths (21 per day). 37,126 tests with a positivity rate of 5.09%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.17% for the past seven days, compared to 6.85% for the preceding seven.

715 patients in ICU (-6 today, -62 for the week) and 1,265 total hospital patients (-317 for the week).

A new record quantity of 158,524 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 137,717. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 days).

• 468 cases in Peel: 33.9 per 100K
  
• 111 cases in Hamilton: 19.2 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Middlesex-London: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 107 cases in Durham: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 469 cases in Toronto: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 165 cases in York: 14.9 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Halton: 12.8 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Huron Perth: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Niagara: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Northwestern: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Ottawa: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

715 patients in ICU (-6 today, -62 for the week) and 1,265 total hospital patients (-317 for the week).

A new record quantity of 158,524 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 137,717. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 days).

Both are good trends.

Hopefully we CAN get 70% vaccinated. More than enough anti-vaxxers out there to make this an obstacle though.

[ijmorlan]

Hopefully we CAN get 70% vaccinated. More than enough anti-vaxxers out there to make this an obstacle though.

I hope this leads to better rules around vaccination in general. I’m not sure what the exact rules should be, but the general idea that vaccination is a legitimate condition of employment for all medical workers, social workers, and the like should be adopted universally. Roughly speaking, anybody working in a job where others are forced to interact with them. This should apply not just to the Covid vaccine (obviously), but also the typical universal childhood vaccines and the flu shot.

The exact details need to be worked out by people with medical and epidemiological credentials, with relatively little input from others.

Also, we need to get rid of the notion of “philosophical” and “religous” exemptions for vaccine requirements. The only valid exemptions are medical, as determined by medical personnel.

A philosophical exemption for military service makes sense, as does a religious one; but there is no valid philosophical objection to vaccination, nor am I aware of a valid religious exemption. By “valid religious exemption” I mean an actual bona fide major world culture which has an objection to a practice, not some weird sect which disagrees with 99% of its co-religionists or which was made up in somebody’s backyard last week. For example, any Christian, Muslim, or Jewish “religious” objection to vaccination is invalid, because a huge majority of Christians, Muslims, and Jews have no problem with vaccination.

Note: nobody should be forced to be vaccinated, just as nobody is forced to wear clothes. But the rest of us don’t have to accept those people in our midst. And the actual impact of naked people out in the world would be way less than the impact of non-vaccinated people.

[taylortbb]

There's been a huge spike in the number of people that live in Waterloo Region that are getting vaccinated elsewhere. I think THP in Mississauga officially opening their clinic to those living anywhere in Ontario has resulted in a lot of people driving there to get vaccinated. I expect with the weekend coming up we'll see an even bigger spike, as not everyone can take a couple hours on a weekday.

I think it's unfortunate that Waterloo public health is still short of doses, while Peel is so awash in them they're intentionally inviting those from elsewhere. Hot spot-focused allocation was good, but clearly the province took it a little further than necessary. At this point however, anyone that can travel there to get vaccinated I think should have no hesitation doing so. Several thousand people vaccinated there is several thousand fewer appointments that have to be booked here, freeing up local clinics for those that can't make the trip.

   

5,860 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,325. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (-3 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 20 days (-3).

5,860 is the number of doses administered in Waterloo Region, not the number of doses administered to Waterloo Region residents, so I'm not sure it's the best metric for when we'll hit 70% of the regional population vaccinated. Some of our doses go to others, and some of our residents get vaccinated elsewhere. Previously this about balanced out, but with the huge spike I noted above it's now heavily biased to residents getting vaccinated elsewhere. We're actually at 6,385 Waterloo Region residents vaccinated yesterday. So I think we can move up the estimate for when 70% of the regional population will be vaccinated, as it's actually moving ~10% faster than the 5,860 number would suggest.

[creative]

My daughter, who lives in Toronto, received her vaccine in Waterloo region.

[jeffster]

Hopefully we CAN get 70% vaccinated. More than enough anti-vaxxers out there to make this an obstacle though.

I hope this leads to better rules around vaccination in general. I’m not sure what the exact rules should be, but the general idea that vaccination is a legitimate condition of employment for all medical workers, social workers, and the like should be adopted universally. Roughly speaking, anybody working in a job where others are forced to interact with them. This should apply not just to the Covid vaccine (obviously), but also the typical universal childhood vaccines and the flu shot.

The exact details need to be worked out by people with medical and epidemiological credentials, with relatively little input from others.

Also, we need to get rid of the notion of “philosophical” and “religous” exemptions for vaccine requirements. The only valid exemptions are medical, as determined by medical personnel.

A philosophical exemption for military service makes sense, as does a religious one; but there is no valid philosophical objection to vaccination, nor am I aware of a valid religious exemption. By “valid religious exemption” I mean an actual bona fide major world culture which has an objection to a practice, not some weird sect which disagrees with 99% of its co-religionists or which was made up in somebody’s backyard last week. For example, any Christian, Muslim, or Jewish “religious” objection to vaccination is invalid, because a huge majority of Christians, Muslims, and Jews have no problem with vaccination.

Note: nobody should be forced to be vaccinated, just as nobody is forced to wear clothes. But the rest of us don’t have to accept those people in our midst. And the actual impact of naked people out in the world would be way less than the impact of non-vaccinated people.

Yeah, I am pretty sure that, at least for the Pfizer, Moderna, Astra-Zeneca and J&J, the religious reasons don't apply (generally if it contains pork and/or blood products, fetal matter, etc) here.

That said, there are a lot of people that are going to avoid it for other reasons. You do have anti-vaxxers, who are against vaccines of any type for any reason. You also have conspiracy theorists regarding this vaccine. The craziest one I heard is that since 1974, the WHO has been working on a disease (Covid-19) that would require a vaccine (the ones currently available) that would sterilize women, so we'd have population control. Also many minorities don't trust public servants (especially the police) and are less likely to be vaccinated.

Lots of other factors as well haven't helped, such as poor media reporting (concentrating on side affects), poor information from all levels of government (like flip flopping on AZ vaccine). Lots of misinformation on social media. Hopefully though we can get to 70%+ for those 12 and up....and I'd imagine that those under 12 might be approved at some point (not because there is much risk, but there would be less spread potential).

[tomh009]

5,860 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 4,325. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-23 (-3 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 20 days (-3).

5,860 is the number of doses administered in Waterloo Region, not the number of doses administered to Waterloo Region residents, so I'm not sure it's the best metric for when we'll hit 70% of the regional population vaccinated. Some of our doses go to others, and some of our residents get vaccinated elsewhere. Previously this about balanced out, but with the huge spike I noted above it's now heavily biased to residents getting vaccinated elsewhere. We're actually at 6,385 Waterloo Region residents vaccinated yesterday. So I think we can move up the estimate for when 70% of the regional population will be vaccinated, as it's actually moving ~10% faster than the 5,860 number would suggest.

You are correct, in the last few days, a lot of regional residents got vaccinated elsewhere -- about 500 on Thursday.

On the other hand, in April, there were a lot more non-residents getting vaccinated here than residents getting vaccinated elsewhere: 5,724 more. So, to date, the difference is actually negative. If the current trend continues, it'll certainly move the date, but right now the real date is probably a bit later than the June 23rd estimate.

[tomh009]

Hopefully though we can get to 70%+ for those 12 and up....and I'd imagine that those under 12 might be approved at some point (not because there is much risk, but there would be less spread potential).

Given that there has still been no slowdown in vaccine takeup, and that we're now at over 50% of eligible population in Ontario, I am optimistic that we will reach that.

In the US, I think it will only happen in some states. Idaho, for example, is still stuck at 31% of the population, and they are turning down vaccine shipments because they can't find people willing to take them.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-05-22

bWaterloo Region reported 45 new cases for today (8.8% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 68; 398 new cases for the week (-18, and back below 400!), averaging 11.0% of active cases. 490 active cases, -49 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 1,794 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,951 (-113 and back below 2,000). 2,520 recoveries and 20 deaths translated to a decrease of 746 active cases and a new total of 21,454. -6,112 active cases for the week and 144 deaths (21 per day). 34,576 tests with a positivity rate of 5.19%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.03% for the past seven days, compared to 6.86% for the preceding seven.

706 patients in ICU (-9 today, -79 for the week) and 1,207 total hospital patients (-339 for the week). The number of non-ICU patients has dropped from a high of about 1,550 to just over 500 today.

A new record quantity of 190,129 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 142,864. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-05 (-1 days).

• 355 cases in Peel: 25.7 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in Durham: 22.8 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Hamilton: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Middlesex-London: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Halton: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 416 cases in Toronto: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Brant: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 140 cases in York: 12.6 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Niagara: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Waterloo: 10.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 55 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Ottawa: 8.7 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

Hopefully we CAN get 70% vaccinated. More than enough anti-vaxxers out there to make this an obstacle though.

I don't actually believe this to be true. Yeah there are a good portion of idiots out there who are vehemently anti-vaccination, most people are rational and want to live a healthy, normal life. There are some groups that are reluctant to get it for different reasons - Indigenous, people of colour those with religious or cultural reasons - but I hope that when they see a huge portion of this country get it, they might reconsider. Some experts believe this virus will become endemic and be with us for good. Inevitably, this pandemic will end, but the virus could still circulate around enough to make it a seasonal thing. If people end up continually catching this virus, develop a disease and land themselves in the hospital they're probably going to stop being so hesitant.

Hopefully, though, it does end up vanishing...at least here in the developed world. I think developing countries may be struggling with this for a good while. It's going to take a long time to get heavily populated countries like India, Bangladesh, Mexico, Brazil and so on vaccinated enough that we stamp out the embers of this thing and never have to worry about it again. Time will tell. We haven't seen anything like this in a century so it's hard to predict how things will be.

[tomh009]

63% of NWT residents have already been vaccinated, and I think that's a good sign for getting acceptance by indigenous people (NWT population is over 55% indigenous).

[ijmorlan]

I don't actually believe this to be true. Yeah there are a good portion of idiots out there who are vehemently anti-vaccination, most people are rational and want to live a healthy, normal life. There are some groups that are reluctant to get it for different reasons - Indigenous, people of colour those with religious or cultural reasons - but I hope that when they see a huge portion of this country get it, they might reconsider. Some experts believe this virus will become endemic and be with us for good. Inevitably, this pandemic will end, but the virus could still circulate around enough to make it a seasonal thing. If people end up continually catching this virus, develop a disease and land themselves in the hospital they're probably going to stop being so hesitant.

I’m curious what you mean by “religious or cultural reasons”. Are there any bona fide cultures which have any sort of prohibition on vaccines?

The more I think about this the more I think that vaccination in accordance with public health guidelines should be a condition of employment for a huge range of jobs, including but not limited to anything medical or quasi-medical (e.g. nursing home workers). And to be honest I’m really not interested in the reasons why people in those occupations may be hesitant. They may be hesitant to follow all sorts of other procedures and rules related to their jobs, but we don’t entertain those objections as worth endangering the lives of their patients.