The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

Good news: 1) The Bruce is bringing about 20,000 doses to Waterloo Region over to Bingeman’s starting Thursday, IIRC. (I think this was the ‘big news’ we were waiting for. 2) Delta variant seems to be waning a bit in RoW.

Bad news: Lambda variant. (This has been the major one in Peru)

[ac3r]

[tomh009]

Insufficient data as of yet. WHO is classifying it as a "variant of interest" for now, rather than a "variant of concern". Data is inconclusive as to whether it spreads more aggressively than other variants.

But, in any case, new variants will be a ho-hum thing in the "new normal", some spreading more aggressively (this is really what viruses "want" to do, rather than killing their hosts), others possibly more virulent. Management by vaccination will be key.

And, at this point, the federal government's decision to secure BioNTech/Pfizer supplies for 2022 and 2023 looks to have been a good one -- we will need those.

[jeffster]

And, at this point, the federal government's decision to secure BioNTech/Pfizer supplies for 2022 and 2023 looks to have been a good one -- we will need those.

Most likely it was a good decision, though evidence is there that boosters won’t be needed. Time will tell, obviously.

[jeffster]

Today’s numbers will include a spike in cases (like last Tuesday) due to more data clean-up from Toronto PHU. We’re talking extra 79 cases.

[danbrotherston]

Today’s numbers will include a spike in cases (like last Tuesday) due to more data clean-up from Toronto PHU. We’re talking extra 79 cases.

Why do they think this is a good way to report data.

[tomh009]

Today’s numbers will include a spike in cases (like last Tuesday) due to more data clean-up from Toronto PHU. We’re talking extra 79 cases.

Why do they think this is a good way to report data.

Basically, the provincial roll-up reporting just has the total number of cases to date, so any corrections to past months can show big positive or negative spikes. They keep the cumulative totals correct but skew the daily numbers. I try to cleanse these out in my reporting as much as possible.

The region shows the number of new cases reported for each date. They frequently make corrections to old data, but then they do show what the actual reporting date was for those cases, and not just throw them into today's bucket. More work for me to keep my spreadsheet updated, but the end results is more accurate data than the provincial one.b

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 94.8
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 51.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 38.4
• Peterborough Public Health 14.2
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 13.2
• Halton Region Public Health 12.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 12.3
• Huron Perth Public Health 12.2
• Niagara Region Public Health 12.1
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 11.9

• TOTAL ONTARIO 10.1

Hopefully this trend continues (don’t see why it won’t) — the region should be good for step 2 next week (though we should be there already, IMHO).

[Bjays93]

I'm hoping Canada works to secure doses of novavax. So far it appears to be the most effective against variants and being a traditional style vaccine will hopefully push the last remaining in the group of vaccine hesitancy to get their shots

[jeffster]

I'm hoping Canada works to secure doses of novavax. So far it appears to be the most effective against variants and being a traditional style vaccine will hopefully push the last remaining in the group of vaccine hesitancy to get their shots

I thought AZ was also traditional…but obviously it had some side effects that have derailed its use. In this day in age, a 1/50,000 side effect, that won’t kill you if treated, is worse than a 1/500 chance of dying of a disease.

[Chris]

Lots of spots open currently open for this weekends Bingemans bonanza if anyone is looking to book.

Bingemans 'Hockey Hub' ETA: link to the Region's booking site.

Scroll to the last location in the drop down for Bingemans Conference Center.


Cheers

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-07-06

Waterloo Region reported nine (!) new cases for today (2.4% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for 35; 272 new cases for the week (-32 from yesterday, -110 from last week), averaging 9.3% of active cases. 329 active cases, -154 in the last seven days. Nine is a really lovely number at this point, but it's only a single day so I hesitate to declare victory for now.

An average of 682 tests/day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 5.70%, down slightly from last week's 5.86% but on a substantially lower test volume (which normally increases the positivity rate).

8,281 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,451 (previous week was 9,173). 64.22% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +1.10% from 7 days ago), 33.07% fully vaccinated (+1.22% from yesterday, +8.59% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 184 new cases today (excluding the 80 Toronto cases from 2020 data cleanup) with a seven-day average of 206 (-4). 319 recoveries and nine deaths translated to a decrease of 84 active cases and a new total of 1,883. -526 active cases for the week and 70 deaths (10 per day). 28,755 tests with a positivity rate of 0.64%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.97% for the past seven days, compared to 1.16% for the preceding seven. 168 patients in ICU (-2 today, -45 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 34
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 8 (42% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 0
  

215,719 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 206,978 (previous week was 229,062). 68.18% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.87% from 7 days ago), 39.97% fully vaccinated (+1.33% from yesterday, +8.97% from 7 days ago).

• 25 cases in Waterloo: 4.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Niagara: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Hamilton: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Brant: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in York: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Toronto: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-07-07

Waterloo Region reported 50 new cases for today (15.2% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for nine; 265 new cases for the week (-7 from yesterday, -109 from last week), averaging 9.8% of active cases. 315 active cases, -122 in the last seven days. 

Next testing report on Friday.

10,047 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,493 (previous week was 9,370). 64.37% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.15% from yesterday, +1.10% from 7 days ago), 34.61% fully vaccinated (+1.54% from yesterday, +8.68% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 194 new cases today with a seven-day average of 205 (-1). 236 recoveries and zero deaths translated to a decrease of 42 active cases and a new total of 1,841. -416 active cases for the week and 56 deaths (eight per day). 26,976 tests with a positivity rate of 0.72%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.04% for the past seven days, compared to 1.13% for the preceding seven. 163 patients in ICU (-5 today, -46 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 349
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 5
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 173 (37% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 18
  

204,594 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 197,863 (previous week was 234,930). 68.31% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.84% from 7 days ago), 41.23% fully vaccinated (+1.26% from yesterday, +8.57% from 7 days ago).

• 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Hamilton: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Chatham-Kent: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Thunder Bay: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Middlesex-London: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 90.1
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 50.3
• Porcupine Health Unit 33.6
• Peterborough Public Health 15.5
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 13.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 13.2
• Lambton Public Health 13.0
• Halton Region Public Health 12.8
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 11.7
• Huron Perth Public Health 11.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 10.2

[Bjays93]

I'm hoping Canada works to secure doses of novavax. So far it appears to be the most effective against variants and being a traditional style vaccine will hopefully push the last remaining in the group of vaccine hesitancy to get their shots

I thought AZ was also traditional…but obviously it had some side effects that have derailed its use. In this day in age, a 1/50,000 side effect, that won’t kill you if treated, is worse than a 1/500 chance of dying of a disease.

AZ was not traditional, it is more traditional than Pfizer and Moderna but it is not the same as Novavax. AZ uses double DNA technology, whereas Novavax uses lab made spike proteins that mimic the covid spike proteins to train our body to fight off an infection. It's the standard method that's been used for decades and has had the highest recorded efficacy of all vaccines thus far. Hopefully given its traditional nature it will be approved for the under 12 category and I personally believe it should be the vaccine prioritized for anyone under 18