The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-08-09

Waterloo Region reported 22 new cases for today (14.4% of the active cases) and three fewer for yesterday for 19; 128 new cases for the week (+4 from yesterday and -4 from last week), averaging 11.6% of active cases. 153 active cases, -5 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Only 1,318 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 2,258 (previous week was 4,137). 68.70% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.06% from yesterday, +0.51% from 7 days ago), 60.33% fully vaccinated (+0.21% from yesterday, +2.45% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 325 new cases today with a seven-day average of 283 (+12), compared to 196 a week ago. 192 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 132 active cases and a new total of 2,374. +669 active cases for the week and 25 deaths (four per day). 15,805 tests with a positivity rate of 2.06%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.61% for the past seven days, compared to 1.18% for the preceding seven. 82 patients in ICU (-3 today, +4 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 157 (87% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 1
  

Cases/100K by region:

• 11 cases in Grey Bruce: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Hamilton: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 47 cases in Peel: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Toronto: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in York: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Durham: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Eastern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Brant: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Niagara: 1.3 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-08-10

Waterloo Region reported 19 new cases for today (12.4% of the active cases) and zero fewer for yesterday for 22; 138 new cases for the week (+13 from yesterday and +13 from last week), averaging 12.6% of active cases. 148 active cases, -8 in the last seven days.

An average of 773 tests/day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 2.55%, up from 2.43% a week ago.

2,244 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 2,345 (previous week was 3,721). 68.82% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.12% from yesterday, +0.55% from 7 days ago), 60.67% fully vaccinated (+0.34% from yesterday, +2.26% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 321 new cases today with a seven-day average of 306 (+23), compared to 201 a week ago. 200 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 120 active cases and a new total of 2,494. +777 active cases for the week and 25 deaths (four per day). 16,479 tests with a positivity rate of 1.95%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.69% for the past seven days, compared to 1.25% for the preceding seven. 79 patients in ICU (-3 today, +2 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 20 (87% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 0
  

Cases/100K by region:

• 22 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Grey Bruce: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Hamilton: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 96 cases in Toronto: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Halton: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in York: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Peel: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Waterloo: 1.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 2 cases in Lambton: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

My apologies for the delayed updates recently -- I should be back to normal by Saturday.

[ac3r]

Ontario now tracking vaccine status of COVID-19 patients in hospital. These graphics break down what’s happening: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08...ening.html

[ijmorlan]

Ontario now tracking vaccine status of COVID-19 patients in hospital. These graphics break down what’s happening: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/08...ening.html

Although since a majority are now vaccinated, the graphics actually understate the value of vaccinations. If they looked at infections per person in the various populations, the unvaccinated population would stand out even more.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 37.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 34.8
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 29.4
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 22.8
• York Region Public Health 21.9
• Toronto Public Health 18.7
• Peel Public Health 16.4
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 15.4
• Brant County Health Unit 14.8
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 14.2

• TOTAL ONTARIO 15.6

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-08-11

Waterloo Region reported 10 new cases for today (6.7% of the active cases) and zero fewer for yesterday for 19; 131 new cases for the week (-7 from yesterday and +3 from last week), averaging 11.9% of active cases. 148 active cases, -14 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

2,062 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 2,280 (previous week was 3,428). 68.89% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.07% from yesterday, +0.54% from 7 days ago), 60.94% fully vaccinated (+0.27% from yesterday, +2.20% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 324 new cases today with a seven-day average of 332 (+26), compared to 199 a week ago. 204 recoveries and three deaths translated to an increase of 204 active cases and a new total of 2,611. +921 active cases for the week and 24 deaths (three per day). 24,772 tests with a positivity rate of 1.31%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.76% for the past seven days, compared to 1.25% for the preceding seven. 79 patients in ICU (+0 today, +1 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 38
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 325 (87% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 3
  

Cases/100K by region:

• 41 cases in Hamilton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Chatham-Kent: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Huron Perth: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 5 cases in Brant: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Halton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Grey Bruce: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in York: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Toronto: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Peel: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Durham: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Ottawa: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Niagara: 1.1 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 39.5
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 36.6
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 30.6
• York Region Public Health 26.1
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 23.3
• Toronto Public Health 20.7
• Durham Region Health Department 18.7
• Peel Public Health 18.5
• Brant County Health Unit 17.4
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 17.2

• TOTAL ONTARIO 17.7

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-08-12

Waterloo Region reported 16 new cases for today (10.7% of the active cases) and zero fewer for yesterday for 10; 127 new cases for the week (-4 from yesterday and +2 from last week), averaging 11.6% of active cases. 147 active cases, -16 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

(Vaccination data to follow.)

Ontario reported 513 new cases today -- first time over 500 since June -- with a seven-day average of 375 (+43), compared to 198 a week ago. 256 recoveries and zero deaths translated to an increase of 257 active cases and a new total of 2,868. +1,162 active cases for the week and 22 deaths (three per day). 22,896 tests with a positivity rate of 2.24%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.95% for the past seven days, compared to 1.22% for the preceding seven. 83 patients in ICU (+4 today, +5 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 9
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 148 (88% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 0
  

Cases/100K by region:

• 27 cases in Windsor-Essex: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Durham: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in York: 6.3 per 100K
  
  
• 64 cases in Peel: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Northwestern: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Grey Bruce: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Halton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 105 cases in Toronto: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Waterloo: 2.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 7 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Ottawa: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Niagara: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Sudbury: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.2 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 43.8
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 42.7
• York Region Public Health 25.5
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 24.1
• Brant County Health Unit 23.8
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 23.6
• Toronto Public Health 22.3
• Peel Public Health 20.1
• Durham Region Health Department 19.2
• Halton Region Public Health 18.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 18.8

Well, we can say with certainty that Ontario has joined Waterloo Region and Grey Bruce with entering the 4th wave.

[Chris]

75 per cent of Waterloo Region's eligible population fully vaccinated against COVID-19

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/75-per-cent...-1.5546131

KITCHENER -- More than 75 per cent of Waterloo Region residents 12 and older have received both doses of COVID-19 vaccines.
As of Friday, 84.02 per cent of the 12+ population has received at least one dose, while 75.04 per cent has both doses.

[taylortbb]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal...-1.6140131

Requiring vaccination to board a plane or train is certainly one of the strongest levers the federal government has to boost vaccination rates. The article seems slightly ambiguous about requirements for employees of federally regulated sectors. Civil servants and crown corps are certainly going to require vaccination, but if it includes all federally regulated industries that's going to be a lot of people.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-08-13

Waterloo Region reported 26 new cases for today (17.7% of the active cases) and zero fewer for yesterday for 16; 127 new cases for the week (+0 from yesterday and -1 from last week), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 152 active cases, -8 in the last seven days.

An average of 972 tests/day for the past seven days, for a positivity rate of 1.87%, down from 2.64% a week ago.

2,381 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 2,190 (previous week was 2,860). 68.97% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.04% from yesterday, +0.46% from 7 days ago), 61.59% fully vaccinated (+0.32% from yesterday, +2.15% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 510 new cases today with a seven-day average of 399 (+24), compared to 214 a week ago. 264 recoveries and two (new) deaths translated to an increase of 242 active cases and a new total of 3,110. +1,231 active cases for the week and 22 deaths (three per day). 23,586 tests with a positivity rate of 2.16%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.05% for the past seven days, compared to 1.28% for the preceding seven. 82 patients in ICU (-1 today, +2 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 15
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 146 (88% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 0
  

Cases/100K by region:

• 41 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Hamilton: 8.8 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Halton: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Peel: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Toronto: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Waterloo: 3.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 15 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in York: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Niagara: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Durham: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Ottawa: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Grey Bruce: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Thunder Bay: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Sudbury: 1.0 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

   

[neonjoe]

Eventually Douggie will do the right thing.

Ontario to mandate vaccines for hospital workers, give booster shots to the vulnerable, and halt further reopening

https://outline.com/23f85U

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-08-14 (posting this every Saturday).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	42	10.8	27	6.9	+73%
Hamilton	57	9.8	34	5.9	+100%
York	64	5.8	44	3.9	+35%
Brant	11	8.1	5	3.9	+208%
Grey Bruce	3	1.9	6	3.8	-41%
Toronto	153	5.2	97	3.3	+69%
Peel	67	4.8	46	3.3	+63%
Waterloo	18	2.9	19	3.1	+6%
Middlesex-London	20	4.9	12	3.0	+52%
Halton	21	3.8	15	2.8	+121%
Durham	20	3.1	18	2.7	+68%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	8	2.9	7	2.4	+25%
Southwestern Ontario	6	3.0	5	2.3	+55%
Chatham-Kent	9	8.5	2	2.3	+636%
Simcoe-Muskoka	10	1.9	12	2.1	+109%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	2	1.9	+50%
Eastern Ontario	2	1.0	4	1.9	+113%
Niagara	23	5.1	8	1.7	+270%
Ottawa	16	1.6	13	1.3	+67%
Ontario total					+64%

Waterloo region is still stable, but we have a +64% weekly trend at the provincial level!

Has there been any indication of provincial strategy recently? (I have been pretty much out of the loop for the past two weeks.) I see the vaccination of hospital workers and boosters for vulnerable populations, which make sense, but those seem like fiddling with the margins and I can't see them really reversing the trend we have been seeing for the past four weeks.