The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

Not sure how true this is, as I have no way of verifying, but this isn't good.

https://twitter.com/JustinCalow/status/1...8778875904

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 111.8
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 92.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 66.5
• Brant County Health Unit 64.4
• Niagara Region Public Health 46.4
• York Region Public Health 41.9
• Peel Public Health 40.0
• Toronto Public Health 34.2
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 33.5
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 33.1

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 25.0

• Northwestern Health Unit 11.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 9.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 9.0
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 8.2
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 8.0
• Lambton Public Health 6.1
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.2
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 1.8
• Algoma Public Health 1.7
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 34.5

On the bright side, numbers seems to be levelling in Ontario, which is a good thing.

[panamaniac]

I’ll be surprised if that levelling lasts through the month.

[tomh009]

I’ll be surprised if that levelling lasts through the month.

The trend is good ... on the upside, we will have vaccine enforcement soon. However, school started this week so that will surely generate some additional new cases.

   

[jeffster]

I’ll be surprised if that levelling lasts through the month.

The trend is good ... on the upside, we will have vaccine enforcement soon. However, school started this week so that will surely generate some additional new cases.

At some point, hopefully they'll have an approved vaccine for elementary students. And hopefully those between 6m and 3 yrs.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 116.0
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 85.6
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 60.8
• Brant County Health Unit 54.1
• Niagara Region Public Health 47.4
• York Region Public Health 40.3
• Peel Public Health 38.1
• Toronto Public Health 33.7
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 31.2
• Durham Region Health Department 31.0

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 26.4

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 13.2
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 12.2
• Lambton Public Health 10.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 9.3
• Northwestern Health Unit 9.1
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 8.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 6.4
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 2.8
• Algoma Public Health 2.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 34.0

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-09-08

Waterloo Region reported 19 new cases for today (10.8% of the active cases) and three additional for yesterday for 20; 150 new cases for the week (-5 from yesterday and -12 from last week), averaging 12.5% of active cases. 181 active cases, +16 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,202 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,323 (previous week was 1,322). 74.77% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.07% from yesterday, +0.92% from 7 days ago), 69.14% fully vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +1.09% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 554 new cases today with a seven-day average of 732 (-15), compared to 701 a week ago. 770 recoveries and 11 deaths translated to a decrease of 232 active cases and a new total of 6,040. +179 active cases and 30 deaths for the week. 21,840 tests with a positivity rate of 2.54%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.15% for the past seven days, compared to 2.86% for the preceding seven.

167 people in the ICU, +2 from yesterday and +32 over the past week. 375 total people hospitalized, +36 over the past week.

38,174 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 33,033 (previous week was 32,312). 74.28% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.11% from yesterday, +0.72% from 7 days ago), 68.54% fully vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +0.85% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.1 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Niagara: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 149 cases in Toronto: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Halton: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Durham: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in York: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Hamilton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Peel: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Waterloo: 3.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Ottawa: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.2 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

The trend is good ... on the upside, we will have vaccine enforcement soon. However, school started this week so that will surely generate some additional new cases.

At some point, hopefully they'll have an approved vaccine for elementary students. And hopefully those between 6m and 3 yrs.

I do hope it comes soon, too. Haven't been paying attention to any of the science, but I imagine they're trialing it for younger ages by now?

Once most kids can be vaccinated, I'd like to hope we'll be at the end of this and can move on for good. I understand trials in such vulnerable groups is harder to do, hence why it's taking time. Lots of ethical, legal and health challenges to deal with.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-09-09

Waterloo Region reported 27 new cases for today (14.8% of the active cases) and one additional for yesterday for 20; 157 new cases for the week (+7 from yesterday and +1 from last week), averaging 12.8% of active cases. 188 active cases, +16 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,672 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,390 (previous week was 1,289). 74.89% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.12% from yesterday, +0.95% from 7 days ago), 69.30% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.12% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 798 new cases today with a seven-day average of 723 (-9), compared to 728 a week ago. 772 recoveries and three (new) deaths translated to an increase of 16 active cases and a new total of 6,056. +25 active cases and 28 deaths for the week. 29,684 tests with a positivity rate of 2.69%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.08% for the past seven days, compared to 2.96% for the preceding seven.

160 people in the ICU, -7 from yesterday and +23 over the past week. 365 total people hospitalized, +45 over the past week.

38,391 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 33,496 (previous week was 31,772). 74.41% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.74% from 7 days ago), 68.68% fully vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +0.85% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 66 cases in Windsor-Essex: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Chatham-Kent: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Hamilton: 9.5 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Niagara: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Ottawa: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in York: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Lambton: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 159 cases in Toronto: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 73 cases in Peel: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Waterloo: 5.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 25 cases in Halton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Grey Bruce: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Durham: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Eastern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Sudbury: 2.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

   

[danbrotherston]

At some point, hopefully they'll have an approved vaccine for elementary students. And hopefully those between 6m and 3 yrs.

I do hope it comes soon, too. Haven't been paying attention to any of the science, but I imagine they're trialing it for younger ages by now?

Once most kids can be vaccinated, I'd like to hope we'll be at the end of this and can move on for good. I understand trials in such vulnerable groups is harder to do, hence why it's taking time. Lots of ethical, legal and health challenges to deal with.

They have been working on a phase 3 study since at least the spring for younger children with the Pfizer vaccine. I imagine it's taking longer because young children have not been infected at the same rate as older adults. Course that may change.

[tomh009]

I do hope it comes soon, too. Haven't been paying attention to any of the science, but I imagine they're trialing it for younger ages by now?

Once most kids can be vaccinated, I'd like to hope we'll be at the end of this and can move on for good. I understand trials in such vulnerable groups is harder to do, hence why it's taking time. Lots of ethical, legal and health challenges to deal with.

They have been working on a phase 3 study since at least the spring for younger children with the Pfizer vaccine. I imagine it's taking longer because young children have not been infected at the same rate as older adults. Course that may change.

Right now Pfizer is planning to submit for FDA emergency authorization for the 5-11 cohort by the end of September, and the 0.5-4 cohort "shortly thereafter". I expect Heath Canada authorization requests would follow fairly quickly after those, so we might be looking October-November approval for 5-11 and maybe December-January for 0.5-4. At a guess!

(And, yes, Moderna is running trials for the same age groups as well.

[danbrotherston]

They have been working on a phase 3 study since at least the spring for younger children with the Pfizer vaccine. I imagine it's taking longer because young children have not been infected at the same rate as older adults. Course that may change.

Right now Pfizer is planning to submit for FDA emergency authorization for the 5-11 cohort by the end of September, and the 0.5-4 cohort "shortly thereafter". I expect Heath Canada authorization requests would follow fairly quickly after those, so we might be looking October-November approval for 5-11 and maybe December-January for 0.5-4. At a guess!

(And, yes, Moderna is running trials for the same age groups as well.

December would be ideal for me.

[ac3r]

So just one or two more lockdowns and we're (maybe) free! I kid. Hopefully we can get through the colder months without too many issues, and by spring get children vaccinated.

[JoeKW]

The FDA asked Pfizer to increase their trial size because they're concerned about the occurrences of myocarditis in young men and teenage boys. The likely delays approval/EUA until early winter which basically means early 2022 unfortunately.

[danbrotherston]

The FDA asked Pfizer to increase their trial size because they're concerned about the occurrences of myocarditis in young men and teenage boys. The likely delays approval/EUA until early winter which basically means early 2022 unfortunately.

If the concern was specifically myocarditis, then this shouldn't actually delay the study much, those reactions happen quite soon after vaccination, so the same long term duration would not be needed to evaluate that risk, I would think.