The COVID-19 pandemic

[Spokes]

Fourth doses for nursing home residences make sense... Probably 4 times a year while there are outbreaks. The antibodies give them a fighting chance to survive an infection.  For most of the rest of the population it makes little sense.  The risk from the virus for a 2 or 3x vaccinated person is very low. The vaccines are doing their jobs.

Do you not think eventually they'll roll out #4 for everyone too?  Pfizer CEO already saying #4 is needed for omicron.

[jeffster]

Fourth doses for nursing home residences make sense... Probably 4 times a year while there are outbreaks. The antibodies give them a fighting chance to survive an infection.  For most of the rest of the population it makes little sense.  The risk from the virus for a 2 or 3x vaccinated person is very low. The vaccines are doing their jobs.

Do you not think eventually they'll roll out #4 for everyone too?  Pfizer CEO already saying #4 is needed for omicron.

100% 4 doses will be a reality for everyone. As will a 5th and 6th until something better is out. See below.

Apparently the US Army has created a very good Covid vaccine, so that might be coming a reality sooner than later.

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/20...ts/360089/

[danbrotherston]

The announcements are not inspiring confidence. Testing is being scaled back, seems like we're entering the "giving up" phase of COVID.

"Giving up" though would likely include a 'just go out and enjoy the rest of your life, whatever is left of it', no?

To be honest, though, I really don't believe anyone really has an idea what really needs to be done, as likely no one really knows. Nobody is agreeing with anything either.

Most of the spread is still going to be close contact. Whatever those setting might be. I suppose school is one, and enough pressure from the teachers union to try to keep school closed.

I wish I had the answers.

They are no longer collecting case numbers, means we won't even know Rt, and contact tracing isn't a thing anymore, basically, they aren't interested in limiting cases.

[JoeKW]

I think they might roll out #4 but it's probably not necessary with omicron (future variants may change the math of course).
The vaccines are still excellent at preventing disease and most of us we'll be exposed to omicron in the next 3 months anyways.

[danbrotherston]

I think they might roll out #4 but it's probably not necessary with omicron (future variants may change the math of course).
The vaccines are still excellent at preventing disease and most of us we'll be exposed to omicron in the next 3 months anyways.

I mean, I hope not...this is such a defeatist belief, and it was the same one people had with Delta, and it wasn't true then. Again, contrary to some people's beliefs, COVID is still a dangerous disease, our healthcare system will be overwhelmed if it grows exponentially, worse, COVID has significant long term consequences for many people.

[plam]

I wrote this before right? I think an omicron specific vaccine will probably help as a booster, and a nasal spray in the future.

I don't think dose #4 of the original vaccine is that useful. Of course the Pfizer CEO would say differently, several billion dollars of his net worth depend on it. Dose 3 gets you broader immunity and that turns out to be important for omicron. Dose 4? Who knows.

I'm hoping that the omicron wave burns out fast at least. It is in some places and not others. Always hard to know why.

I think the US Army vaccine is still in very early development and there's no particular reason to think it will be good or bad at this stage. Not enough data.

[JoeKW]

Vincent Racaniello explains in detail why additional boosters shouldn't be needed: https://youtu.be/ixUJfXxndGA?t=3618

[jeffster]

Interesting thing I have heard recently regarding "Covid" hospitalizations: apparently 1/2 of these are incidental covid cases, especially true of children, that is, they are hospitalized WITH covid, as opposed of 'because' of Covid.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/14...35872?s=21

Dr. Moore also admits the same thing, and apparently Ontario will eventually update their numbers:

https://twitter.com/anthonyfurey/status/...15173?s=21

To take it with a grain of salt, most Covid-ICU admittance are indeed because of Covid, though it's not 100% either.

[jeffster]

Vincent Racaniello explains in detail why additional boosters shouldn't be needed: https://youtu.be/ixUJfXxndGA?t=3618

Maybe, but this was said after the 2nd shot -- no need for a 3rd shot, yet I just got my 3rd shot in 8 months and likely this will be mandatory for everyone. I expect we'll continue to get more shots after that -- and the pharmacy wants me back in 3 months for my 4th.

"shouldn't" is different than "won't". Back 6 months ago we were saying 70-80% vaccination rate for eligible would get us out of this. We're at 91% for 12 and up and 87% for 5+. Yet we're seeing daily record broken every single day.

This virus is going have to fizzle out on its own. Hopefully sooner than later. Or it will become endemic and will require yearly or semi-annual boosters.

EDIT: just realized the massive contradiction -- it will fizzle or become endemic. It can 'fizzle' then become endemic. It's one or the other.

[JoeKW]

I agree that "shouldn't" is different than "won't" and I think that's why it's possible we will be asked to get a fourth shot. Vincent explains why the booster is helpful and why a fourth wouldn't be. The reason is that we need a good amount of time between doses for affinity maturation (topic is beyond my comprehension) and the spacing between the first two doses were too close together. Six months is a good spacing and should be enough.

The people who are taking their booster doses early will probably need a fourth dose.

[jeffster]

I agree that "shouldn't" is different than "won't" and I think that's why it's possible we will be asked to get a fourth shot. Vincent explains why the booster is helpful and why a fourth wouldn't be.  The reason is that we need a good amount of time between doses for affinity maturation (topic is beyond my comprehension) and the spacing between the first two doses were too close together.  Six months is a good spacing and should be enough.

The people who are taking their booster doses early will probably need a fourth dose.

To add -- likely beyond anyones comprehension.

Is what it is.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 739.8
• Toronto Public Health 683.2
• York Region Public Health 648.9
• Halton Region Public Health 628.3
• Porcupine Health Unit 576.5
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 565.9
• Brant County Health Unit 548.3
• Lambton Public Health 530.7
• Ottawa Public Health 519.1
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 516.6
• Durham Region Health Department 515.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 512.0
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 499.7
• Peel Public Health 483.9

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 478.3

• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 467.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 465.3
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 448.1
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 430.4
• Niagara Region Public Health 417.8
• Peterborough Public Health 375.7
• Southwestern Public Health 352.7
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 340.2
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 330.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 318.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 313.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 312.3
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 311.9
• Huron Perth Public Health 297.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 294.8
• Northwestern Health Unit 287.4
• Algoma Public Health 277.9
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 268.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 211.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 534.4

The "real" numbers are likely 2x or more higher than this. I fully most everyone to be infected probably by February. Right now, the omicron appears to be the disease of little children and vaccinated adults.

[tomh009]

Right now, the omicron appears to be the disease of little children and vaccinated adults.

Not just kids. And not just vaccinated adults, though the unvaccinated are more likely to get Delta.

The early study shows significantly reduced likelihood of death or hospitalization as compared to Delta. I like this study as it accounts for the differences in age, vaccination etc to ensure the cases are comparable.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/med...sc_lang=en

I hope they'll be updating the study frequently.

[danbrotherston]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 739.8
• Toronto Public Health 683.2
• York Region Public Health 648.9
• Halton Region Public Health 628.3
• Porcupine Health Unit 576.5
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 565.9
• Brant County Health Unit 548.3
• Lambton Public Health 530.7
• Ottawa Public Health 519.1
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 516.6
• Durham Region Health Department 515.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 512.0
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 499.7
• Peel Public Health 483.9

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 478.3

• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 467.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 465.3
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 448.1
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 430.4
• Niagara Region Public Health 417.8
• Peterborough Public Health 375.7
• Southwestern Public Health 352.7
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 340.2
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 330.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 318.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 313.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 312.3
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 311.9
• Huron Perth Public Health 297.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 294.8
• Northwestern Health Unit 287.4
• Algoma Public Health 277.9
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 268.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 211.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 534.4

The "real" numbers are likely 2x or more higher than this.  I fully most everyone to be infected probably by February. Right now, the omicron appears to be the disease of little children and vaccinated adults.

If everyone is infected by February, we'll have tens of thousands die from preventable deaths because ERs and ORs will literally be empty of staff and doctors. It would be the single greatest self inflicted disaster of my lifetime.

And for bonus points, a solid 30% of the entire population would have long term chronic disabilities. This kind of thing could literally be a downfall event in some places on earth.

And for extra bonus points, with spread that extensive, there's a good chance new mutations would arise which would start the whole damn thing over again in March.

So yeah, I hope you're wrong...although frankly, we're not doing a damn thing to avert it.

[jeffster]

So much for those rapid tests:

https://www.therecord.com/ts/news/gta/20...sults.html

Paywalled most likely, but those tests that you can do by yourself aren't very accurate, with too many false negatives.