The COVID-19 pandemic

[plam]

Ontario moves school online, closes indoor dining and gyms as part of sweeping new COVID-19 measures: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/f...-1.6302531

I don't quite know how we will measure the success (or the lack thereof) of these measures, given that testing is now very restricted. Based on hospital and ICU population only?

Too slow. Positivity rate might still give some information if reported?

[tomh009]

I do think they will still report that, yes.

[danbrotherston]

I don't quite know how we will measure the success (or the lack thereof) of these measures, given that testing is now very restricted. Based on hospital and ICU population only?

Too slow. Positivity rate might still give some information if reported?

Potentially, but I doubt it, the testing centre in DTK was empty this morning, and I do mean empty, not a single car in line at 10 AM.

I'd be curious to hear actual testing numbers....given what I've seen today, I'd think at 10x decrease would be in the ballpark.

When you have a decrease that large, spurious factors, biases, etc, are going to dominate the data.

[tomh009]

When you have a decrease that large, spurious factors, biases, etc, are going to dominate the data.

Absolutely a risk. We should see by the end of this week where the new testing volumes settle.

[jeffster]

Ontario moves school online, closes indoor dining and gyms as part of sweeping new COVID-19 measures: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/f...-1.6302531

I don't quite know how we will measure the success (or the lack thereof) of these measures, given that testing is now very restricted. Based on hospital and ICU population only?

Well, what I do know is that this lack of testing is throwing off my estimates for covid-19 cases.

What I do know is that 100% of people will be infected. The vaccine, if you have your 3rd or 4th dose, should prevent serious illness.

I have my third already, and my 4th is booked in 4 months. (according to Rexall)

Hopefully we can get this vaccine in spray or pill form, so that it can be self-administered. This virus will never go away, and mostly likely, from my understanding, we'll need boosters quite often.

[plam]

What I do know is that 100% of people will be infected. The vaccine, if you have your 3rd or 4th dose, should prevent serious illness.

I don't believe that 100% of people will be infected, and likely not with omicron; people are saying numbers like 50% to 80%. 50% is a lot of people, and if it happened all at once it would crash our health system, but it's not everyone.

It's also worthwhile to delay as much as possible, because treatments improve.

Hopefully we can get this vaccine in spray or pill form, so that it can be self-administered. This virus will never go away, and mostly likely, from my understanding, we'll need boosters quite often.

McMaster is working on a spray vaccine, which one would think could work better (because it's near the sites where one picks up the virus). More boosters is still possible, but again, it's people like the Pfizer CEO who are most enthusiastic about that.

[danbrotherston]

What I do know is that 100% of people will be infected. The vaccine, if you have your 3rd or 4th dose, should prevent serious illness.

I don't believe that 100% of people will be infected, and likely not with omicron; people are saying numbers like 50% to 80%. 50% is a lot of people, and if it happened all at once it would crash our health system, but it's not everyone.

It's also worthwhile to delay as much as possible, because treatments improve.

Hopefully we can get this vaccine in spray or pill form, so that it can be self-administered. This virus will never go away, and mostly likely, from my understanding, we'll need boosters quite often.

McMaster is working on a spray vaccine, which one would think could work better (because it's near the sites where one picks up the virus). More boosters is still possible, but again, it's people like the Pfizer CEO who are most enthusiastic about that.

This doesn't make sense with my understanding of how the immune system works. AFAIK vaccines are not a localized response, but a systemic one, it shouldn't matter where the vaccine is administered.  My understanding of the "spray vaccine" was for chicken shit folks like me who don't like getting needles (you know, mostly children).

It's also not the case that vaccinated folks have "nothing" to worry about. Young, healthy people probably will be fine (but some won't), vulnerable people will again die. So this "lets just let everyone get it" is just a way of saying you don't really care if my grandma dies. I was sick of this attitude in March 2020, my opinion of it has not improved.

[plam]

I don't believe that 100% of people will be infected, and likely not with omicron; people are saying numbers like 50% to 80%. 50% is a lot of people, and if it happened all at once it would crash our health system, but it's not everyone.

It's also worthwhile to delay as much as possible, because treatments improve.


McMaster is working on a spray vaccine, which one would think could work better (because it's near the sites where one picks up the virus). More boosters is still possible, but again, it's people like the Pfizer CEO who are most enthusiastic about that.

This doesn't make sense with my understanding of how the immune system works. AFAIK vaccines are not a localized response, but a systemic one, it shouldn't matter where the vaccine is administered.  My understanding of the "spray vaccine" was for chicken shit folks like me who don't like getting needles (you know, mostly children).

It's also not the case that vaccinated folks have "nothing" to worry about. Young, healthy people probably will be fine (but some won't), vulnerable people will again die. So this "lets just let everyone get it" is just a way of saying you don't really care if my grandma dies. I was sick of this attitude in March 2020, my opinion of it has not improved.

Immunology is super complicated and nothing is binary in that world---dangerous for software people to think about. Lots of people are working on nasal sprays though. Something about local responses and killing the virus before it gets a chance to multiply. I think the antibodies would be faster to form in the nose and throat. See for instance https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...han-a-shot (old, but has the most detail I could find).

Your grandma is better off than in March 2020 having received the vaccine, but yes, still at substantially higher risk than you are.

[tomh009]

If the early Omicron severity data proves to be correct (and that's still definitely an "if") the (Omicron) risk to a vaccinated person will likely start to approach the risk from the seasonal flu. Maybe not yet at that level, but going in that direction.

People do die from the flu, it is certainly not risk-free if you have some pre-existing conditions. And if COVID-19 turns into an endemic disease, some people will still die, for sure, but hopefully it will be fewer than die from the flu (which is a reasonable comparison point). Until now, COVID-19 has been considerably more dangerous, but the vaccines and Omicron are starting to change that picture.

But I don't have the public health or medical background to determine "when", let alone "how" we should get to that point in a (hopefully) controlled fashion.

[ac3r]

I wonder if it's just easier to mandate vaccines at this point? We had a national campaign to get vaccinated and most of us did. We were told we could return to normal once that happened. Just pull out your QR code first, of course. Now the vaccinated have been locked down again from living life. So what was the point? Force the anti-vaxxers to get it or let it burn through them like wildfire. I don't get why the rest of us get to have our very own lives restricted yet again. This is nonsense.

[danbrotherston]

If the early Omicron severity data proves to be correct (and that's still definitely an "if") the (Omicron) risk to a vaccinated person will likely start to approach the risk from the seasonal flu. Maybe not yet at that level, but going in that direction.

People do die from the flu, it is certainly not risk-free if you have some pre-existing conditions. And if COVID-19 turns into an endemic disease, some people will still die, for sure, but hopefully it will be fewer than die from the flu (which is a reasonable comparison point). Until now, COVID-19 has been considerably more dangerous, but the vaccines and Omicron are starting to change that picture.

But I don't have the public health or medical background to determine "when", let alone "how" we should get to that point in a (hopefully) controlled fashion.

I mean, yes, with omicron now looking to be less severe than other variants we are "heading" in that direction, but we're nowhere near it yet. I'm not sure of exact numbers, but in typical years the flu does not hospitalize even close to 1% those who get the flu, which is where Omicron is right now.

I see little evidence that COVID will be less dangerous than the flu any time soon, except for the availability of vaccines, which is again is negated by the availability of flu vaccines as well.

FWIW...as a result of this pandemic, I'm much more aware of the harm caused by the flu. It kills (in the US, where the numbers I saw are from) tens of thousands of people including hundreds of children every year. I'm no longer satisfied with our public health response to the flu. Our flu vaccination programs should be much more widespread, and it's shocking to me that the flu vaccine isn't free everywhere in Canada.

[Rainrider22]

I cant say how many people get the flu yearly, however, pre-covid, approximately 55 000 people reportedly had Influenza, of which 6893 died in 2019. In 2018, 8511 people died from it in Canada.

[jeffster]

I wonder if it's just easier to mandate vaccines at this point? We had a national campaign to get vaccinated and most of us did. We were told we could return to normal once that happened. Just pull out your QR code first, of course. Now the vaccinated have been locked down again from living life. So what was the point? Force the anti-vaxxers to get it or let it burn through them like wildfire. I don't get why the rest of us get to have our very own lives restricted yet again. This is nonsense.

I really don’t think it matters if everyone was vaccinated — as this virus is spreading through vaccinated people.

We did all that was required, and we got 90% of the eligible population vaccinated. There are some anti-vax holdouts, but there are other groups not vaccinated, for example, First Nations population for one and for good reasons, they don’t trust government. Same applies to minorities and marginalized people.

But as I said, even if everyone was vaccinated, we’d still have high numbers as cases appear to be the same (per 100k) regardless of vaccination status. There is a difference with hospitalizations, but that’s it.

[danbrotherston]

I cant say how many people get the flu yearly, however, pre-covid,  approximately 55 000 people reportedly had Influenza, of which 6893 died in 2019.  In 2018, 8511 people died from it in Canada.

I believe 55,000 is the number of people who are actually diagnosed with the flu via a PCR test. While it is the same number we have been reporting for COVID, testing is obviously very different, the vast vast majority of people who get the flu do not get tested. I'm not certain we even have good numbers on the number of people who actually get the flu in a given year.

[Rainrider22]

I cant say how many people get the flu yearly, however, pre-covid,  approximately 55 000 people reportedly had Influenza, of which 6893 died in 2019.  In 2018, 8511 people died from it in Canada.

I believe 55,000 is the number of people who are actually diagnosed with the flu via a PCR test. While it is the same number we have been reporting for COVID, testing is obviously very different, the vast vast majority of people who get the flu do not get tested. I'm not certain we even have good numbers on the number of people who actually get the flu in a given year.

Yes,  the recorded number likely from tests... That is all I was advising. I agree the number is likely much higher.  Interesting though that as off March 2020, Stats Can stopped registering any numbers in relation to Influenza.