The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but there's a pretty large study making the news rounds right now.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/...1m-people/

Having COVID, even without hospitalization (what everyone is calling "mild" and "just like the flu"), represented a significant and large increase in risk for a multitude of cardiovascular diseases in the year after infection.

[plam]

Hi,  I hope your son is feeling better and doing ok.  Physzer  isn't a lot better. My mom was in hospital for a week and almost died after her second vaccine  and after her booster, he whole neck sweelwd up..  She said she is done with it...  84, hard to tell her what to do.

Sorry about your mom! That's horrible. For myself, I wish AZ had still been available. I had minimal problems with it, but after my mRNA vaccines, I have bad tinnitus. I did research on it, and it is a side effect. No telling how long it will last, but it's been since June 2021. Now taking your kid to the hospital multiple times is an issue. Not sure if his life will get back to normal. Really, with low risk individuals, and with the government no longer able to peddle lies regarding spread of vaccinated people, I truly believe that people under 30 should not have been forced to take it. And yeah, my kid had to take it for his job, so in that way, it is forced.

The first hospital visit back in October was really bad though, as he almost died. Very scary.

Sorry to hear about your son.

I am going to point out that boosters absolutely reduce transmission, even of Omicron. Not to 0, but nothing is 100%. Booster VE vs infection is something like 61% in Ontario. If you reduce the number of cases, you reduce the number of transmissions as well.

Tinnitus: it also sucks, though there seem to be perhaps as many reports of it following AZ. There are potential causal mechanisms, but who knows. Maybe 1 in 8,000.

[jeffster]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but there's a pretty large study making the news rounds right now.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/...1m-people/

Having COVID, even without hospitalization (what everyone is calling "mild" and "just like the flu"), represented a significant and large increase in risk for a multitude of cardiovascular diseases in the year after infection.

Really seems like a damned if you do, or damned if you don't.

My co-workers kids have all gotten sick. Her oldest daughter who is in Kingston studying of nursing, got it the worst. Part of her requirement is to be boosted, otherwise they'll kick them out of the course. Anyway, in the dorm they have, 5 out of 6 of them are really sick, all vaccinated and boosted. The one girl, who's not in nursing, isn't vaccinated, and is the only one not sick. Didn't even test positive.

Now I know there are studies on why this is. Will be interesting to see what they find.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Northwestern Health Unit 404.9
• Algoma Public Health 292.7
• Porcupine Health Unit 254.1
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 229.4
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 216.7
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 205.5
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 174.2
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 138.3
• Timiskaming Health Unit 134.6
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 118.5
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 115.6
• Niagara Region Public Health 99.9
• Lambton Public Health 98.5
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 97.7
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 93.8
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 89.0
• Durham Region Health Department 86.6
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 84.7
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 84.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 79.4
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 78.0
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 75.7
• Ottawa Public Health 72.9
• Peterborough Public Health 71.0
• Southwestern Public Health 70.9
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 70.4
• Halton Region Public Health 65.9
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 65.2
• Huron Perth Public Health 65.1
• Toronto Public Health 62.9
• Brant County Health Unit 55.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 54.2

• York Region Public Health 47.3
• Peel Public Health 45.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 82.6

[danbrotherston]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but there's a pretty large study making the news rounds right now.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/...1m-people/

Having COVID, even without hospitalization (what everyone is calling "mild" and "just like the flu"), represented a significant and large increase in risk for a multitude of cardiovascular diseases in the year after infection.

Really seems like a damned if you do, or damned if you don't.

My co-workers kids have all gotten sick. Her oldest daughter who is in Kingston studying of nursing, got it the worst. Part of her requirement is to be boosted, otherwise they'll kick them out of the course. Anyway, in the dorm they have, 5 out of 6 of them are really sick, all vaccinated and boosted. The one girl, who's not in nursing, isn't vaccinated, and is the only one not sick. Didn't even test positive.

Now I know there are studies on why this is. Will be interesting to see what they find.

I mean, what you are suggesting is statistically improbable, but not impossible.

This isn't a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, this is a 99.99% safe, and 0.001% damned if you do, and 20% safe and 80% damned if you don't scenario. And my numbers aren't exaggerating here, they are approximately the right order of magnitude here.

[plam]

I mean, what you are suggesting is statistically improbable, but not impossible.

This isn't a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, this is a 99.99% safe, and 0.001% damned if you do, and 20% safe and 80% damned if you don't scenario.  And my numbers aren't exaggerating here, they are approximately the right order of magnitude here.

Agreed. I reject false equivalences and this is very much a false equivalence between things that are very different, on two scales: 1) vaccine side-effects versus COVID consequences; 2) risk of getting a severe case of COVID with and without vaccines. In both of these cases, the data shows that the vaccine is statistically, by far, your best bet.

[jeffster]

Really seems like a damned if you do, or damned if you don't.

My co-workers kids have all gotten sick. Her oldest daughter who is in Kingston studying of nursing, got it the worst. Part of her requirement is to be boosted, otherwise they'll kick them out of the course. Anyway, in the dorm they have, 5 out of 6 of them are really sick, all vaccinated and boosted. The one girl, who's not in nursing, isn't vaccinated, and is the only one not sick. Didn't even test positive.

Now I know there are studies on why this is. Will be interesting to see what they find.

I mean, what you are suggesting is statistically improbable, but not impossible.

This isn't a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, this is a 99.99% safe, and 0.001% damned if you do, and 20% safe and 80% damned if you don't scenario.  And my numbers aren't exaggerating here, they are approximately the right order of magnitude here.

It was never 80% damned if you don't. Literally millions of people got Covid before there was a vaccine and the majority were not sympathetic.

As for the vaccine itself, as we know if we follow medical news, it doesn't stop infection, nor does it stop spread.

As for Moderna -- it's not used for those 29 and under dues to high risk, especially in males. My son was one, and almost died from it. That is hardly 99.99% safe. They pulled AZ from usage due to risks.

Hopefully once your kids qualify, and IF, because I don't believe vaccine will every be approved for that age group, nothing happened to them. Healthy young children and healthy young adults should not be vaccinated either, IMHO. I have seen the results first hand. I wouldn't feel that way, even if my kid had gotten sick from it, if the vaccine stop the spread. It does not. Zilch.

As for everyone else, again, knowing what we know now, with the evolving science, people should make their own determination. I would not get it again because of the tinnitus. Not worth it. It's like going to a loud concert and you get the ringing for the next day or two. This time, it doesn't stop ever, and I feel like I am going out of my fucking mind. I probably would have been a moderate risk because I have asthma, but I played it safe by social distancing and masking, which likely is more effective than the vaccine itself.

But, Dan -- unless your kid is deathly ill, and has serious health issues, I would skip the vaccine if it became available. 90% of people are more than capable of fighting Covid without longterm health effects. That 90%, though, are at risk of the vaccine. It doesn't matter if it's a really small number, and it's more than .001, but even if it were, that would be 600 people in the region who potentially ruined their lives. Like mine. I have no idea what the future of my son is. He's 19 and should be having the best years of his life, not sick and freaking day.

EVERY FREAKING DAY -- I bolded that so you could see it.

And for transparency purposes -- he had no choice for the vaccine -- he was mandated to get it from his employer, or be fired. Same with me.

Lucky my daughter saw no difference. My mom did, she can't use her right arm like she used to (but it's only been 2 months, the booster). She wanted Pfizer for her 3rd shot, but it was reserved for those under 30. But whatever the case, her arm has been dead for 2 months. Hopefully it gets better. (It's called Moderna arm). I did get the same, but it only lasted 2 weeks.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k 🏥

• Northwestern Health Unit 422.0
• Algoma Public Health 297.1
• Porcupine Health Unit 264.9
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 220.9
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 217.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 201.0
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 164.2
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 139.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 137.7
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 120.0
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 116.6
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 105.2
• Niagara Region Public Health 100.3
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 98.9
• Lambton Public Health 95.4
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 86.7
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 85.3
• Durham Region Health Department 85.3
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 83.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 80.8
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 79.9
• Ottawa Public Health 74.8
• Southwestern Public Health 74.2
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 72.8
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 71.4
• Huron Perth Public Health 67.3
• Halton Region Public Health 65.3
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 64.2
• Toronto Public Health 63.5
• Peterborough Public Health 62.8

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 55.1

• Brant County Health Unit 50.3
• Peel Public Health 45.7
• York Region Public Health 45.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 82.8

[ac3r]

Mask mandates to be rescinded in Ontario on March 21st: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.6378045

About damn time.

[plam]

I mean, what you are suggesting is statistically improbable, but not impossible.

This isn't a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, this is a 99.99% safe, and 0.001% damned if you do, and 20% safe and 80% damned if you don't scenario.  And my numbers aren't exaggerating here, they are approximately the right order of magnitude here.

It was never 80% damned if you don't. Literally millions of people got Covid before there was a vaccine and the majority were not sympathetic.

As for the vaccine itself, as we know if we follow medical news, it doesn't stop infection, nor does it stop spread.

As for Moderna -- it's not used for those 29 and under dues to high risk, especially in males. My son was one, and almost died from it. That is hardly 99.99% safe. They pulled AZ from usage due to risks.

Hopefully once your kids qualify, and IF, because I don't believe vaccine will every be approved for that age group, nothing happened to them. Healthy young children and healthy young adults should not be vaccinated either, IMHO. I have seen the results first hand. I wouldn't feel that way, even if my kid had gotten sick from it, if the vaccine stop the spread. It does not. Zilch.

As for everyone else, again, knowing what we know now, with the evolving science, people should make their own determination. I would not get it again because of the tinnitus. Not worth it. It's like going to a loud concert and you get the ringing for the next day or two. This time, it doesn't stop ever, and I feel like I am going out of my fucking mind. I probably would have been a moderate risk because I have asthma, but I played it safe by social distancing and masking, which likely is more effective than the vaccine itself.

But, Dan --  unless your kid is deathly ill, and has serious health issues, I would skip the vaccine if it became available. 90% of people are more than capable of fighting Covid without longterm health effects. That 90%, though, are at risk of the vaccine. It doesn't matter if it's a really small number, and it's more than .001, but even if it were, that would be 600 people in the region who potentially ruined their lives. Like mine. I have no idea what the future of my son is. He's 19 and should be having the best years of his life, not sick and freaking day.

EVERY FREAKING DAY -- I bolded that so you could see it.

And for transparency purposes -- he had no choice for the vaccine -- he was mandated to get it from his employer, or be fired. Same with me.

Lucky my daughter saw no difference. My mom did, she can't use her right arm like she used to (but it's only been 2 months, the booster). She wanted Pfizer for her 3rd shot, but it was reserved for those under 30. But whatever the case, her arm has been dead for 2 months. Hopefully it gets better. (It's called Moderna arm). I did get the same, but it only lasted 2 weeks.

Look, there are a lot of non-facts here. I understand that people have vaccine side-effects and they can be a real issue; I'm sorry that anyone has to experience them. Long COVID is also a real issue and way more prevalent than vaccine side-effects, if you look at the numbers (1.7% of total population in the UK, and that's with not everyone having been infected).

I could point out the non-facts individually but that doesn't seem like a good use of my time. I'm going to reiterate, though, that even with Omicron, the booster does slow transmission. It doesn't stop it, but it slows it, and that helps society a lot. It is just not true that the vaccine does nothing to prevent transmission, and I wish people wouldn't state that non-fact.

[danbrotherston]

Mask mandates to be rescinded in Ontario on March 21st: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.6378045

About damn time.

No...it really isn't.

This is foolish and is likely to lead to...in addition to preventable deaths and illnesses, the possibility of harsher restrictions...

[ac3r]

That doesn't seem to be the case in countries which have removed restrictions and mandates, though.

In the US cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths have been continually trending downward even though all states have now removed mask mandates. In the last two weeks, they've seen (numbers referring to percentages) -51 cases, -43 hospitalizations, -44 for ICU beds and -26 in deaths.

In the UK, they have been seeing similar downward trends. There's a slight increase in cases recently, but one needs to remember they test a hell of a lot more than other countries...in the last two weeks they've gone up 7 percent. Deaths have nonetheless gone down a -25 percent decrease in the last 14 days.

Both countries have removed restrictions and mandates a while ago (with a few states lagging behind, such as Hawaii as well as Puerto Rico, though now I believe it's universal with the exception of certain school systems and private businesses) and yet even with omicron, things are looking good.

Things have gone up in Canada in comparison - +7 percent in cases and +33 percent in deaths - but I'm not sure how to explain that when we are still wearing masks here. Regardless, we can look at countries that have removed mask mandates to get a sense of what we are likely going to be in store for. Judging by US and UK data, it should be easily manageable. People will still die, but that's going to happen no matter what since we are past the point of eliminating this virus. Either we remove the mask mandates now (and reinstate them if necessary) or we never do.

And either we trust our public health officials - doctors, scientists, statisticians etc - when they say it will be okay to remove the mandates or we don't trust public health. Personally, I'm willing to trust them because they've presented their data and research to the PCPO and then they made the decision. And it isn't really a political decision as it's based on research. Some are suggesting it's to score political points, but I think that's nonsense since the election isn't for a while and it would make no sense to remove the mandates only for things to spike back up. That's shooting themselves in the foot, so I believe they have simply been looking at not only our own country but others to come to the conclusion that we can now take the chance to end them and reinstate if necessary.

Note: I'm pulling these numbers from the New York Times since they are a reliable source. Not sure if their Covid-19 info is available for free still, but the info can be found elsewhere.

[tomh009]

Cases are a very unreliable indicator because test volumes are so low now.

Deaths are a lagging indicator so looking at a two-week span will not tell you the real story.

Here are charts for the last 30 days for hospital population. This still lags, but less so than deaths.

   

[plam]

Data is really hard to come by, but IHME thinks that we have about 11k new cases/day in Ontario, which is well above 10/100K.

What is the harm in wearing masks, versus waiting until cases are actually lower? It is true that a case is now less likely to lead to hospitalization than before, but there are still going to be people who have bad consequences.

I'm not as optimistic about an Omicron-specific vaccine as I used to be, but I am still optimistic about more supplies of Paxlovid in the near term and a nasal spray vaccine in the long term. Both of these options mean that later is better than sooner for COVID spread.

[jeffster]

Cases are a very unreliable indicator because test volumes are so low now.

Deaths are a lagging indicator so looking at a two-week span will not tell you the real story.

Here are charts for the last 30 days for hospital population. This still lags, but less so than deaths.

Damn, the USA, though. Could that be because nearly everyone has gotten sick?