The COVID-19 pandemic

[KevinL]

I highly doubt martial law will be necessary. Perhaps broader suggested measures, but nothing should need to be enforced - the failure of the Ezra party to emerge on Tuesday shows that the broader populace will follow clear medical advice that's for the good of the community.

[danbrotherston]

Your not going to die from this......

Lots of people will, and how we deal with it could change how many die by an order of magnitude.

[Momo26]

I don't know what to think any more - I'm trying to stay positive. We are trying to get everyone set up to work from home. A critical few of us still going into work daily; practicing social distancing as best we can (people in grocery stores come into closer quarter of one another than we do) but with news that it's spreading from one to another within the region - that's unnerving.

How did they figure that out?

[panamaniac]

So all community centres, arena's, pools, etc., will be closed in Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo and the townships until further notice.

I expect that cinema's, restaurants, fast-food and cafes to be closed before the end of next week, along with a ban on gatherings of over 10 people perhaps.

This is really really bad folks. Unsure what else to say. I imagine the next month or 2 is going to be really tough though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment rate to spike to unseen levels -- like 20 or 30%.

I also believe the possibility of the US government collapsing completely, due to their financial health (its $22T debt).

We really need to look at what Italy is doing to figure out how we should do it. The have had a 3-week lock-down in a certain area, and only know is it stabilizing. I imagine for Canada, we should look at a 6 to 8 week lock-down. Nothing until May 1 or 14. I can't see any other way.

We played the last hockey of the year this afternoon, got in just before the arena shutdown. Oh well, first-world problems indeed.

There are unlikely to be major layoffs in manufacturing, resources or in white-collar work. The ones that will suffer the most will be service jobs, particularly in bars and restaurants. But those sectors aren't big enough to get us to a 20%+ unemployment rate. Retail and food/accommodation services in total count for about 15% of Canadian jobs, but even those will not go to zero. I do expect to see 10%+ in the short term, though.

The US financial situation is ridiculous but as long as people are willing to pay for US treasury bonds at very low interest rates (and they are indeed) there will be no collapse.

Italy, France, Spain are not really comparable, nor is New York City. In all four the virus spread out of control before the government took any serious action. Here we are taking concrete actions before the virus starts spreading like wildfire. How much that will help still remains to be seen. though.

I don't know what to think any more - I'm trying to stay positive. We are trying to get everyone set up to work from home. A critical few of us still going into work daily; practicing social distancing as best we can (people in grocery stores come into closer quarter of one another than we do) but with news that it's spreading from one to another within the region - that's unnerving.

How did they figure that out?

Every case is tracked.

[jeffster]

Your not going to die from this......

Maybe if you're under 60 you won't -- can't be said of older folks, not like I want my 79 year old mother dying.

[jeffster]

I highly doubt martial law will be necessary. Perhaps broader suggested measures, but nothing should need to be enforced - the failure of the Ezra party to emerge on Tuesday shows that the broader populace will follow clear medical advice that's for the good of the community.

I am sure the signs that they had posted, regarding local, provincial and federal laws, lots of police officers, and security, everything fenced in, and crappy weather had a large impact. Authorities actually got their shit together this year and Mother Nature co-operated.

[ac3r]

Two cases of community transmission in Waterloo Region.

I don't know what power the region has, but why are we allowing malls to be open? Or any store that is not essential (food, banking, laundry and pharmaceutical stores). The USA had 4000 cases in one day. California has ordered a shelter in place directive state wide, meaning nobody can leave their home. This thing spreads like a raging fire. I've contacted malls, but obviously none are/will reply.

Edit: It's not yet reported in the news, but Grand River Hospital is building a 75 bed unit in Pioneer Terrace at the Grand River Hospital Freeport Site strictly to treat COVID-19. They're currently having a hard time sourcing respirators and other essentials. They're preparing for things to get worse.

[Momo26]

My question is...are things going to get worse before they get better?
If so 75 beds ain't gonna do it...

[Momo26]

Someone put a good breakdown of total beds Canada wide someplace....was it this thread?

[tomh009]

Locally we are now up to 12 confirmed cases, including the first two community transmissions (two females in their 20s).

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

Two more local cases today, for a total of 14. One of the two is a community transmission, and is the first hospitalized case in the region (a male in his 70s); the other patient caught the virus on a cruise.

[rickhd]

I would think as we get into spring and the temperatures warm more people will be outdoors.    I would expect this to slowly calm down only to come back again in the fall.   Worst would be if it mutates and comes back re-infecting people all over again.      Hopefully by fall they can include it with the flu shot or have a vaccine ready with the flu shot.     

They say there where also people sick back in January who may have had Covid-19 and not realized what it was at the time.   

As for Italy it was a sad mistake by what I understand.   Patient 0 was turned away more than once from a hospital.   Only to finally be tested.   Italian authorities are looking at legal action.   Italians are wonderful people, I hope for the best.   Sadly Italy has a rather fragmented government that is unstable at the best of times.     

Iran is self explanatory with the regime they currently have in place.

[rickhd]

Your not going to die from this......

Maybe if you're under 60 you won't -- can't be said of older folks, not like I want my 79 year old mother.

That's one big issue in Italy.   The second oldest population after Japan.    It is one reason for the high death toll.

[rickhd]

I had what they think was the H1N1 flu in January 2019.  I had the flu shot.    I was sick for a month.   I never felt that bad in my life.   Took about 3 weeks for the fever to break.   I was literally sweating buckets.    I don't want to go through something like that again.   Any flu type virus is no fun.

[tomh009]

As for Italy it was a sad mistake by what I understand.   Patient 0 was turned away more than once from a hospital.   Only to finally be tested.       

This. Patient 0 ended up going to multiple hospitals and transmitting the virus at each one to staff, who in turn spread it to (already-weakened) patients. Something close to 99% of the deaths in Italy had significant pre-existing health issues, most of them already hospitalized for those. The pre-existing conditions, in turn, precipitated the need for more ventilators, and the shortage of those increased the mortality rate.

It's a sequence of problems, but initiated by the mistaken (and repeated) dismissal of Patient 0 from the hospitals.

[danbrotherston]

I had what they think was the H1N1 flu in January 2019.  I had the flu shot.    I was sick for a month.   I never felt that bad in my life.   Took about 3 weeks for the fever to break.   I was literally sweating buckets.    I don't want to go through something like that again.   Any flu type virus is no fun.

Just to clarify, this is not a "flu type virus"...it's a corona virus, which is similar to the flu in a few ways...but it is not an influenza virus and it is extremely unlikely there will be a vaccine for it in the fall, best case won't see a vaccine until January 2021, and likely not till summer 2021.

Your description of the situations in Italy and Iran seem to imply you don't think we would see a similar situation here, I don't think that is true either, even if patient zero spread the virus, Italy, as we have had, also had many many other patients introduce the virus, it would have spread out of control regardless as it has in almost all other western countries. It might be a little worse in Italy because of the circumstances, but we will have the same result unless we respond differently, as we do appear to be doing...whether it is enough, I don't think anyone knows.