03-23-2020, 08:34 PM
(03-23-2020, 04:14 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(03-23-2020, 03:28 PM)MidTowner Wrote: Based on computer modelling, Ottawa's chief medical officer of help estimates the real number of cases in Ottawa at around 4000.
That's not quite correct. She did not estimate it at 4000.
"What's more, Etches said computer modelling suggests as many as 4,000 people could be infected across the city."
That indicates a considerably lower confidence level. In the end, no one can say how many people are infected until we actually start doing some random testing. And that's unlikely to happen until things calm down.
That's exactly right: No one can say how many people are infected at the moment. But it is certainly higher than the confirmed numbers, and might not even bear much relationship to our confirmed numbers across time. And comparing our numbers to other jurisdictions' is pointless when no one is conducting mass testing, and testing protocols vary widely.