The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

There are roughly 4,500 non-hospitalized active cases in Ontario right now; that's just less than the last nine days' new case count. That's a bit less than the median confirmation-to-discharge period in Singapore (see below) but it may be that Singapore was testing people sooner after the infection.
https://towardsdatascience.com/visual-no...d7f2e1d0a0

But if we assume a typical 11 days in an active status, then we should be seeing about 400 cases coming off the active rolls per day (as recoveries), plus some deaths. (We had 415 yesterday.) If we can get the daily count of new cases down from the 500-600 range to somewhere around 400, the actual active caseload will start dropping.

Without detailed analysis (and missing a lot of data), it seems that a lot of the recent new cases have been in retirement homes and LTC facilities. If we are now starting to get a handle on those, maybe 400 new is a reasonable target.