The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Yes, this is clearly a reversal of the previous trend.

When does the government go back to stage 2 (or stage 1)?

[panamaniac]

Waterloo Region  reported six new cases today, the highest this month; the new case increase was 0.4% of the total cases to date and 11.3% of the current active caseload. New cases averaging 5.8% of actives over the past seven days. Active cases in the region were up by four to 53, and also up four in the past seven days.

2,105 tests over the last four days for a 0.7% positivity rate and 0.5% over the past seven days.

Ontario reported 203 new cases today, the highest this month, with a seven-day average of 142 new cases. 92 recoveries and one death translated to a increase of 110 active cases, so up to 1,584, after a weekly total change of +142. 22,974 tests for a 0.9% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.56% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 12.8% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 9.8% of actives over the past seven days.

• 57 cases in Peel: 4.5 per 100K population
  
• 43 cases in Ottawa: 4.3 per 100K population
  
• 30 cases in Toronto: 1.0 per 100K population
  
• 24 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.3 per 100K population
  
• 6 cases in Waterloo: 1.8 per 100K population
  

The ship is clearly sailing in the wrong direction. Toronto, Peel and Windsor have not opened up yet, but are struggling to get the numbers down. And now it looks like Ottawa is turning into another hotspot. @Panamaniac, any insight into what's happening there?

The ICU population is at 36 (-1) now.

Ottawa’s uptick is attributed by public health to people socializing indoors outside their social bubble/without proper distancing and to people going to work when they have symptoms(!).

[tomh009]

I don't think they'll do it on a few days' data. But if we have another week of increasing caseload (and, note, also increasing ICU beds) they might take action next week. Maybe not back to square one, but tightening things back up.

[tomh009]

The ship is clearly sailing in the wrong direction. Toronto, Peel and Windsor have not opened up yet, but are struggling to get the numbers down. And now it looks like Ottawa is turning into another hotspot. @Panamaniac, any insight into what's happening there?

Ottawa’s uptick is attributed by public health to people socializing indoors outside their social bubble/without proper distancing and to people going to work when they have symptoms(!).

All right ... that's a lot of people having indoor parties. They didn't do that for the past four months. Are people somehow thinking that this is all over?

[taylortbb]

Ottawa’s uptick is attributed by public health to people socializing indoors outside their social bubble/without proper distancing and to people going to work when they have symptoms(!).

All right ... that's a lot of people having indoor parties. They didn't do that for the past four months. Are people somehow thinking that this is all over?

I think people don't understand what the restrictions are. Now that restaurants are open lots of people are getting together for lunch/dinner with friends they haven't seen in person for months, and who aren't inside their bubble. I don't think the message that physical distancing still applies outside one's bubble has gotten through to the public at all. Even the more careful people I know have gotten the message "it's fine if outdoors", so they'll get several friends from several bubbles together to visit a patio.

[jamincan]

I don't think they'll do it on a few days' data. But if we have another week of increasing caseload (and, note, also increasing ICU beds) they might take action next week. Maybe not back to square one, but tightening things back up.

I have zero confidence that Doug Ford would shut things down again. I'd love to be proved wrong.

[tomh009]

I don't think they'll do it on a few days' data. But if we have another week of increasing caseload (and, note, also increasing ICU beds) they might take action next week. Maybe not back to square one, but tightening things back up.

I have zero confidence that Doug Ford would shut things down again. I'd love to be proved wrong.

I had zero confidence that he would be able to handle COVID in Ontario. So far he has proven me (mostly) wrong. We'll see where we go from here.

[panamaniac]

I don't think they'll do it on a few days' data. But if we have another week of increasing caseload (and, note, also increasing ICU beds) they might take action next week. Maybe not back to square one, but tightening things back up.

I have zero confidence that Doug Ford would shut things down again. I'd love to be proved wrong.

To be fair, he’s been getting it more right than wrong up to now.  I agree, however, that shutting things down again in the face of the inevitable increase in new cases is going to be difficult.  I imagine that when it becomes necessary, they’ll try to be as narrowly targeted as possible.

[plam]

Quebec stats over time by a friend of mine from university:

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1016...7080620691

[ac3r]

The ICU population is at 36 (-1) now.

Question...is this the ICU population for the Region of Waterloo, or all of Ontario?

[ZEBuilder]

The ICU population is at 36 (-1) now.

Question...is this the ICU population for the Region of Waterloo, or all of Ontario?

All of Ontario since 36 cases is more than half of the regions active.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region  reported two new cases today, back to previous levels at least for today; the new case increase was 0.1% of the total cases to date and 3.8% of the current active caseload. New cases averaging 6.0% of actives over the past seven days. Active cases in the region were flat at 53, and up by three in the past seven days.

Next testing update on Friday.

Ontario reported 165 new cases today, down from yesterday's peak, with a seven-day average of 151 new cases. 207 recoveries and two deaths translated to a decrease of 44 active cases, so down to 1,540, after a weekly total change of +14. 22,974 tests for a 0.9% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.59% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.4% of the total and 10.7% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.3% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is at 37 (+1) now.

• 39 cases in Windsor-Essex: 21.7 per 100K population
  
• 33 cases in Ottawa: 3.3 per 100K population
  
• 28 cases in Toronto: 1.0 per 100K population
  
• 25 cases in Peel: 2.2 per 100K population
  
• 2 cases in Waterloo: 0.3 per 100K population
  

GTA is starting look in fairly good shape now, but Windsor and Ottawa still have work to do.

[jeffster]

Windsor isn’t getting any breaks, are they?!

[tomh009]

Windsor isn’t getting any breaks, are they?!

Not so much. But how can so many health care workers still be getting infected? No PPE available in Windsor?

The Windsor Essex County Health Unit has confirmed 35 new cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday, bringing the local total to 2,017. They say 1,311 people locally have recovered.

The Health Unit says 8 of the 35 cases are agri-farm workers, 3 are health care workers, 9 cases are from the community, and 15 cases are still under investigation.

[neonjoe]

Could be cross border health care workers that live in Windsor but work in Michigan?