The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

Eight recent flights to Pearson carried passengers with COVID-19

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported four new cases, or 0.3% of the total and 14.3% of the active cases. Active cases have popped back up to 28 (+3).

Next testing data on Friday.

Ontario reported 95 new cases today, back in the normal range. The seven-day average is 82. 134 recoveries and one death translated to a drop of 40 cases, taking us down to just 912 active cases and a weekly total change of -273. 24,572 tests for a 0.39% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.33% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 10.4% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.1% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is down to another new low of 20 (-1).

• 19 cases in Toronto: 0.6 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Peel: 1.6 per 100K population
  
• 13 cases in Ottawa: 1.3 per 100K population
  
• 4 cases in Waterloo: 0.7 per 100K population
  

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported one new case, or 0.2% of the total and 3.4% of the active cases. New cases averaging 10.8% of active cases over the past seven days. Active cases crept up to 29 (+1) today, and up 10 over the past seven days.

Next testing data on Friday.

Ontario reported 78 new cases today with a seven-day average of 79 -- but Toronto did not have data available for yesterday, so the actual number is likely somewhere around 90. 99 recoveries and no deaths translated to a drop of 21 cases, taking us below 900 for the first time, to 891 active cases and a weekly total change of -229. 29,626 tests for a 0.26% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 8.8% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.1% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is steady at 20 (+0).

• 19 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K population
  
• 10 cases in Ottawa: 1.0 per 100K population
  
• 1 cases in Waterloo: 0.2 per 100K population
  

[panamaniac]

Just to note that those 10 new Ottawa cases were all people under 30 y.o..

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported six new cases, or 0.4% of the total and 17.1% of the active cases. New cases averaging 10.4% of active cases over the past seven days. Active cases crept up to 35 (+6) today, and up 15 over the past seven days.

A full update will not come until Tuesday due to a system switchover.

Ontario reported 92 new cases today with a seven-day average of 80, which includes yesterday's cases from Toronto but not today's six cases from Waterloo. 83 recoveries and a single death translated to an increase of eight cases, taking us back up to 899 active cases and a weekly total change of -191. 30,137 tests for a 0.31% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.31% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 10.2% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.4% of actives over the past seven days.

The ICU population is down to 17 (-3).

• 30 cases in Toronto: 1.0 per 100K population
  
• 17 cases in Peel: 1.7 per 100K population
  
• 6 cases in Waterloo: 1.0 per 100K population
  

The Toronto new case count covers both today and yesterday, so averaging about 15/day.

[robdrimmie]

I was curious about the change in positivity rate over time. I grabbed the past week or so's from Tom's posts, and a couple of random ones from July and June. How reporting is done has changed at least once since mid-June according to posts in this thread, so comparing them probably isn't entirely fair but it helped me understand our current state a little bit, I think.

08-06
The positivity rate is averaging 0.42% for the past seven days.
08-07
The positivity rate is averaging 0.40% for the past seven days.
08-08
The positivity rate is averaging 0.39% for the past seven days.
08-09
The positivity rate is averaging 0.37% for the past seven days.
08-10
The positivity rate is averaging 0.39% for the past seven days.
08-11
The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.
08-12
The positivity rate is averaging 0.33% for the past seven days.
08-13
The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.
08-14
The positivity rate is averaging 0.31% for the past seven days.

Random grabs of earlier data:
06-26
The positivity rate is averaging just 0.75% for the past seven days.
07-11
The positivity rate is averaging 0.6% for the past seven days.

[ac3r]

Regardless of the positivity rate, the fact it has more or less consistently been <1% in a region of 617,870 people is really good. Hopefully the school reopenings don't cause a big increase, because with such a low positivity rate means the R nought is incredibly low and so community transmission is low. It'll really be up to how well kids behave, how well teachers can control things in regards to masks/social distancing/cleaning/not allowing friends to get close, how fast we can get improved HVAC systems in the schools (if we are even doing that? I know it was trending on Twitter the other day and people were wondering how the hell we can upgrade HVAC in thousands of schools across the country) and so on. I think the true test will be in...maybe November, when it's cold enough outside that people aren't socializing/working outdoors and we're pushed indoors and any impact from schools has spread to other demographics. Dr. Tam is already expressing some concern about another increase come autumn.

Edit: Looks like the data they have is suggesting that fall could result in us finally overwhelming our hospitals...I sure hope not. We've done so well: https://canoe.com/news/national/covid-19...heresa-tam

[plam]

Edit: Looks like the data they have is suggesting that fall could result in us finally overwhelming our hospitals...I sure hope not. We've done so well: https://canoe.com/news/national/covid-19...heresa-tam

I kind of feel like the title is click-baity. The actual body seems to say that they are doing planning for a possible fall peak including numbers of cases that exceed hospital capacity, which would be prudent.

I mean, I'm also discounting the reference to the modelling tere, because modelling just gives you potential scenarios (which you should plan for) but doesn't really say what is going to happen especially when people change their behaviour in response to the situation.

[tomh009]

Apologies: this is the update from yesterday.

Waterloo Region reported three new cases, or 0.2% of the total and 9.4% of the active cases. New cases averaging 9.3% of active cases over the past seven days.

A full update will not come until Tuesday due to a system switchover.

Ontario reported 106 new cases today with a seven-day average of 85. 101 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of five cases, taking us back up to 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -148. 30,436 tests for a 0.35% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.7% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.4% of actives over the past seven days.

• 23 cases in Peel: 2.3 per 100K population
  
• 20 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Toronto: 0.5 per 100K population
  
• 12 cases in Ottawa: 1.1 per 100K population
  
• 3 cases in Waterloo: 0.5 per 100K population
  

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported five new cases, or 0.4% of the total and 13.5% of the active cases. New cases averaging 8.8% of active cases over the past seven days.

A full update will not come until Tuesday due to a system switchover.

Ontario reported 81 new cases today with a seven-day average of 86. 80 recoveries and one death translated to a steady total of 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -77. 23,813 tests for a 0.34% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.33% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 9.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 9.3% of actives over the past seven days.

• 27 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K population
  
• 10 cases in Toronto: 0.3 per 100K population
  
• 5 cases in Waterloo: 0.8 per 100K population
  

[danbrotherston]

...

Ontario reported 106 new cases today with a seven-day average of 85. 106 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of five cases, taking us back up to 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -148. 30,436 tests for a 0.35% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.
...

I'm confused, if we had 106 new cases and 106 recoveries and no deaths, how do we get net increase of 5 cases?

Also, is it just me, or is WR starting to spiral here, we were doing well for a while, but now are firmly in increasing territory.

[ZEBuilder]

Ontario reported 81 new cases today with a seven-day average of 86. 806 recoveries and one death translated to a steady total of 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -77. 23,813 tests for a 0.34% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.33% for the past seven days.

Is this a typo, because if we got 806 recoveries we'd have about 100 active cases

[tomh009]

Ontario reported 81 new cases today with a seven-day average of 86. 806 recoveries and one death translated to a steady total of 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -77. 23,813 tests for a 0.34% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.33% for the past seven days.

Is this a typo, because if we got 806 recoveries we'd have about 100 active cases

I can only hope! Actually it should have been 80. Will fix now.

[tomh009]

...

Ontario reported 106 new cases today with a seven-day average of 85. 106 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of five cases, taking us back up to 904 active cases and a weekly total change of -148. 30,436 tests for a 0.35% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.32% for the past seven days.
...

I'm confused, if we had 106 new cases and 106 recoveries and no deaths, how do we get net increase of 5 cases?

Also, is it just me, or is WR starting to spiral here, we were doing well for a while, but now are firmly in increasing territory.

Sloppy transcription by me. But, yes, the region's active case count has been creeping back up for the last week or so.

[robdrimmie]

how fast we can get improved HVAC systems in the schools (if we are even doing that? I know it was trending on Twitter the other day and people were wondering how the hell we can upgrade HVAC in thousands of schools across the country)

Last Thursday's announcements included $50 million (new money I think, not reserves, assuming I'm reading it correctly) provincially for HVAC.

https://news.ontario.ca/edu/en/2020/08/o...staff.html