The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

Waterloo Region reported seven new cases or 0.5% of the total and 17.5% of the active cases. New cases are now averaging 10.9% of active cases over the past seven days, and the active cases have gone up from 29 to 40 over the same time period. 27 new cases over that week, so the 40 active count will not drop quickly.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 76 new cases today with a seven-day average of 97. 76 recoveries and one death translated to a drop of a single active case and a current total of 964. A weekly total change of +73. 25,917 tests for a 0.29% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.37% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 7.9% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.5% of actives over the past seven days.

• 21 cases in Toronto: 0.7 per 100K population
  
• 19 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K population
  
• 11 cases in Ottawa: 1.1 per 100K population
  
• 7 cases in Waterloo: 1.1 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

Well, maybe Ontario has leveled off we will see, but I am still rather concerned...we are spiking something fierce.

 “We” being the Region?

[tomh009]

If it's the region, I don't think it's quite "fierce" yet. I am concerned about the number of active cases going back up, but the infection rates are still well below the earlier levels.

Daily averages:

• April: 22
  
• May: 11
  
• June: 7
  
• July: 2.6
  
• August to date: 2.6
  
• Last week: 3.9
  

At 2.5-3 new cases per day, the number of active cases will not drop. I would like to understand, though, why we are not getting the case numbers down further in spite of the mask usage.

[tomh009]

(Forgot to click "Post" on this one last night ...)

Waterloo Region reported no new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 8.1% of active cases over the past seven days, and the active cases have gone up from 29 to 38 over the same time period. 21 new cases over that week.

An average of 1,250 tests per day for the past three days for an average positivity rate of 0.2%, and 0.4% over the last seven days.

Ontario reported 131 new cases today with a seven-day average of 103. 106 recoveries and three deaths translated to an increase of 22 active cases and a current total of 986. A weekly total change of +87. 28,073 tests for a 0.47% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.40% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 13.3% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.9% of actives over the past seven days.

• 37 cases in Ottawa: 3.7 per 100K population
  
• 25 cases in Toronto: 0.8 per 100K population
  
• 21 cases in Peel: 2.1 per 100K population
  
• 0 cases in Waterloo: 0.0 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

The Ottawa-Toronto-Peel axis continues to drive the new infection counts.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported no new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 7.2% of active cases over the past seven days. 18 new cases over that week.

Testing data will be next reported on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 108 new cases today with a seven-day average of 103. 90 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 17 active cases and a current total of 1,003, back into four digits. A weekly total change of +99. 28,656 tests for a 0.38% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.40% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 10.8% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.8% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is steady at 13.

• 25 cases in Toronto: 0.8 per 100K population
  
• 25 cases in Peel: 2.5 per 100K population
  
• 1.4 cases in Ottawa: 1.4 per 100K population
  
• 0 cases in Waterloo: 0.0 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

The Ottawa-Toronto-Peel axis continues to drive the new infection counts. Still.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported four new cases today (0.3% of the total and 9.5% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 7.3% of active cases over the past seven days. 19 new cases over that week.

Testing data will be next reported on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 115 new cases today with a seven-day average of 108. 108 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of seven active cases and a current total of 1,010. A weekly total change of +106. 23,384 tests for a 0.49% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.42% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.4% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 11.1% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is down to 11 (-2).

• 32 cases in Peel: 3.2 per 100K population
  
• 20 cases in Toronto: 0.6 per 100K population
  
• 10 cases in York: 0.9 per 100K population
  
• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.5 per 100K population
  
• 4 cases in Waterloo: 0.6 per 100K population
  

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported zero new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 7.7% of active cases over the past seven days. 19 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 40, up from the low of 16 on 05 August.

Testing data will be next reported on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 105 new cases today with a seven-day average of 109. 78 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 26 active cases and a current total of 1,036. A weekly total change of +116. 18,790 tests for a 0.56% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.45% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 10.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 11.0% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 11 (+2).

• 30 cases in Toronto: 1.0 per 100K population
  
• 24 cases in Ottawa: 2.4 per 100K population
  
• 21 cases in Peel: 2.1 per 100K population
  
• 0 cases in Waterloo: 0.0 per 100K population
  

Why is Ottawa continuing to struggle with keeping the cases at 1.0/100K or below?

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported one new case today (0.1% of the total and 2.7% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.9% of active cases over the past seven days. 16 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 37 after the revision of past new case data in today's update.

An average of 647 tests per day for the past four days with a 0.27% positivity rate. 0.26% positivity over the past week.

Ontario reported 100 new cases today with a seven-day average of 100. 75 recoveries and two deaths translated to an increase of 23 active cases and a current total of 1,059. A weekly total change of +107. 20,013 tests for a 0.50% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.44% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 9.4% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.5% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 13 (+1) while the total hospital population appears .

• 26 cases in Toronto: 0.9 per 100K population
  
• 25 cases in Peel: 2.5 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Ottawa: 1.6 per 100K population
  
• 1 case in Waterloo: 0.2 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

That's two-thirds of all the Ontario cases in those three regions ... Toronto's infection rate is staying below 1.0/100K, but Ottawa and Peel are stubbornly higher.

[robdrimmie]

COVID-19 outbreak declared at Waterloo region summer camp after camper tests positive

The outbreak was announced in a press briefing on Tuesday by Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang, Acting Medical Officer of Health for the Region of Waterloo. The region's online COVID-19 dashboard also shows one case at the summer camp. No name or other details were given about the camp. Wang said the health unit is currently investigating whether the case was from travel or community spread.

[jeffster]

Waterloo Region reported one new case today (0.1% of the total and 2.7% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.9% of active cases over the past seven days. 16 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 37 after the revision of past new case data in today's update.

An average of 647 tests per day for the past four days with a 0.27% positivity rate. 0.26% positivity over the past week.

Ontario reported 100 new cases today with a seven-day average of 100. 75 recoveries and two deaths translated to an increase of 23 active cases and a current total of 1,059. A weekly total change of +107. 20,013 tests for a 0.50% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.44% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 9.4% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.5% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 13 (+1) while the total hospital population appears .

• 26 cases in Toronto: 0.9 per 100K population
  
• 25 cases in Peel: 2.5 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Ottawa: 1.6 per 100K population
  
• 1 case in Waterloo: 0.2 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

That's two-thirds of all the Ontario cases in those three regions ... Toronto's infection rate is staying below 1.0/100K, but Ottawa and Peel are stubbornly higher.

So it looks like Windsor is doing a little better.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported two new cases today (0.1% of the total and 5.7% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.5% of active cases over the past seven days. 16 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 35 (-3).

Next testing data report on Friday.

Ontario reported 88 new cases today, back below 100 for a change, with a seven-day average of 103. 115 recoveries and two deaths translated to an drop of 29 active cases and a current total of 1,030. A weekly total change of +65. 21,960 tests for a 0.40% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.44% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.2% of the total and 8.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.2% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 15 (+2).

• 23 cases in Toronto: 0.8 per 100K population
  
• 22 cases in Peel: 2.2 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Ottawa: 1.6 per 100K population
  
• 2 cases in Waterloo: 0.3 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

Two-thirds of all the Ontario cases in those three regions, again.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported four new cases today (0.3% of the total and 10.8% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 5.8% of active cases over the past seven days. 15 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 37 (+2).

Next testing data report on Friday.

Ontario reported 118 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 109. 77 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 40 active cases and a current total of 1,070 -- up 150 from 11 days ago. A weekly total change of +106. 28,625 tests for a 0.41% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.46% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.7% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 18 (+3).

• 36 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K population
  
• 22 cases in Ottawa: 2.2 per 100K population
  
• 19 cases in Peel: 1.9 per 100K population
  
• 12 cases in Windsor-Essex: 1.5 per 100K population
  
• 4 cases in Waterloo: 0.7 per 100K population (based on regional reporting)
  

[tomh009]

Catching up, sorry for the delay ...

FRIDAY 2020-08-27

Waterloo Region reported zero new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.1% of active cases over the past seven days. 16 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 38 (+0).

An average of 662 tests per day for the past three days for a 0.35% positivity rate.

Ontario reported 122 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 108. 83 recoveries and six deaths translated to an increase of 33 active cases and a current total of 1,103. A weekly total change of +117. 31,823 tests for a 0.38% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.45% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.3% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 18 (+0).

• 32 cases in Toronto: 1.1 per 100K population
  
• 27 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Ottawa: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in York: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 0 cases in Waterloo: 0.0 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

SATURDAY 2020-08-28

Waterloo Region reported zero new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.1% of active cases over the past seven days. 22 new cases over that week.

Next testing data on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 148 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 114. 103 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of 45 active cases and a current total of 1,148. A weekly total change of +171. 32,106 tests for a 0.46% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.46% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.4% of the total and 12.9% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.6% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+3).

• 41 cases in Toronto: 1.4 per 100K population
  
• 32 cases in Peel: 3.2 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Ottawa: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Waterloo: 1.1 per 100K (based on Ontario reporting)
  

SUNDAY 2020-08-29

Waterloo Region reported one new case today (0.2% of the total and 6.2% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.0% of active cases over the past seven days. 17 new cases over that week.

Next testing data on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 112 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 113. 78 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 33 active cases and a current total of 1,181. A weekly total change of +117. 31,823 tests for a 0.38% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.45% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 9.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.4% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+3).

• 35 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K population
  
• 27 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Ottawa: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 1 case in Waterloo: 0.2 per 100K (based on Ontario reporting)
  

[danbrotherston]

Catching up, sorry for the delay ...

FRIDAY 2020-08-27

Waterloo Region reported zero new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.1% of active cases over the past seven days. 16 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 38 (+0).

An average of 662 tests per day for the past three days for a 0.35% positivity rate.

Ontario reported 122 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 108. 83 recoveries and six deaths translated to an increase of 33 active cases and a current total of 1,103. A weekly total change of +117. 31,823 tests for a 0.38% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.45% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 11.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.3% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 18 (+0).

• 32 cases in Toronto: 1.1 per 100K population
  
• 27 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Ottawa: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in York: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 0 cases in Waterloo: 0.0 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

SATURDAY 2020-08-28

Waterloo Region reported zero new cases today (0.0% of the total and 0.0% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.1% of active cases over the past seven days. 22 new cases over that week.

Next testing data on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 148 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 114. 103 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of 45 active cases and a current total of 1,148. A weekly total change of +171. 32,106 tests for a 0.46% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.46% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.4% of the total and 12.9% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.6% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+3).

• 41 cases in Toronto: 1.4 per 100K population
  
• 32 cases in Peel: 3.2 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Ottawa: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Waterloo: 1.1 per 100K (based on Ontario reporting)
  

SUNDAY 2020-08-29

Waterloo Region reported one new case today (0.2% of the total and 6.2% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.0% of active cases over the past seven days. 17 new cases over that week.

Next testing data on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 112 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 113. 78 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 33 active cases and a current total of 1,181. A weekly total change of +117. 31,823 tests for a 0.38% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.45% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 9.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.4% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+3).

• 35 cases in Toronto: 1.2 per 100K population
  
• 27 cases in Peel: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Ottawa: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 1 case in Waterloo: 0.2 per 100K (based on Ontario reporting)
  

Any idea why Ontario has 7 cases for Waterloo but we say 0?

Also, Ontario seems to be trending up now, any sense on how that curve looks yet?

[tomh009]

Any idea why Ontario has 7 cases for Waterloo but we say 0?

Also, Ontario seems to be trending up now, any sense on how that curve looks yet?

The Ontario numbers are a bit misleading, I think, because essentially each day they show nor the number of new cases but the change in the total number of cases. So any adjustments to prior data are shown for the current day. So, I prefer to use the regional data that actually shows the number of reported cases for each day. (Occasionally I need to go back and adjust my historical data when they make corrections.)

In this morning's regional update the last new cases were on Friday, none reported on Saturday or Sunday.

Ontario active cases have been trending up for a while now (see below). It's not a spike (yet?), but it's definitely the wrong direction. Peel and Ottawa are the biggest factors here.

   

[tomh009]

Somehow I missed yesterday again!

MONDAY 2020-08-31

Waterloo Region reported three new cases today (0.2% of the total and 6.7% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.9% of active cases over the past seven days. 19 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 45 (+1).

Ontario reported 114 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 115. 78 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 40 active cases and a current total of 1,221. A weekly total change of +211. 25,098 tests for a 0.45% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.44% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 9.5% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.4% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 20 (+3).

• 41 cases in Toronto: 1.4 per 100K population
  
• 21 cases in Ottawa: 2.1per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Peel: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in York: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Waterloo: 0.5 per 100K (based on regional reporting)
  

TUESDAY 2020-09-01

Waterloo Region reported two new cases today (0.1% of the total and 4.8% of the active cases). New cases are now averaging 6.8% of active cases over the past seven days. 19 new cases over that week. Active cases are at 42 (-3).

Ontario reported 112 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 116. 92 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 19 active cases and a current total of 1,240. A weekly total change of +181. 23,545 tests for a 0.48% positivity rate . The positivity rate is averaging 0.43% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 9.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 10.2% of actives over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 17 (-3).

• 26 cases in Toronto: 0.9 per 100K population
  
• 16 cases in Peel: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in York: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Waterloo: 0.3 per 100K (based on regional reporting)