The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

[1] It's worth noting that our economy has not significantly rebounded as a result of the lifting of the lockdown

It has not? Stats Canada begs to disagree:
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/employment-change

3M jobs lost in March and April, 1.7M recovered up to the end of August. Not out of the woods by any means, but to say there has been no rebound is disingenuous.

Jobs are up, I'll give you that, but CPI is near zero.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi

So, we can trade stats if we want too, but I perhaps understated the growth of the economy.

It's probably unfair to try to draw many conclusions at this point anyway, the lockdown was lifted as the case numbers was also dropping.

[tomh009]

It has not? Stats Canada begs to disagree:
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/employment-change

3M jobs lost in March and April, 1.7M recovered up to the end of August. Not out of the woods by any means, but to say there has been no rebound is disingenuous.

Jobs are up, I'll give you that, but CPI is near zero.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi

So, we can trade stats if we want too, but I perhaps understated the growth of the economy.

It's probably unfair to try to draw many conclusions at this point anyway, the lockdown was lifted as the case numbers was also dropping.

CPI is for prices, though, not growth. GDP would be the best indicator for growth, but it's reported only quarterly, not monthly. And it lags the calendar significantly, it will probably be two months before we see the third-quarter numbers.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...8a-eng.htm

But, yes, I agree, it's too early to know what the recovery will look like. Let's see what the numbers say three months from now.

[danbrotherston]

Jobs are up, I'll give you that, but CPI is near zero.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi

So, we can trade stats if we want too, but I perhaps understated the growth of the economy.

It's probably unfair to try to draw many conclusions at this point anyway, the lockdown was lifted as the case numbers was also dropping.

CPI is for prices, though, not growth. GDP would be the best indicator for growth, but it's reported only quarterly, not monthly. And it lags the calendar significantly, it will probably be two months before we see the third-quarter numbers.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...8a-eng.htm

But, yes, I agree, it's too early to know what the recovery will look like. Let's see what the numbers say three months from now.

CPI is a measurement of prices, but it functions as an indicator for the economy. Certainly not a perfect one, we've had stagflation, but generally, if inflation is low or negative, it isn't an indicator of a strong economy.

Yeah, GDP was the number I was looking for, but I could only find it quarterly.  Of course, I'd be the first to argue that GDP is not the best indicator for the "economy" either, it only measures "how big" nothing to do with, how healthy (although plenty argue they're the same, I don't agree). My biggest concern about the economy going forward is the situation with small businesses. I suspect this is why we see such strong stock performance which tends to reflect larger companies.

But yes, we will have to wait and see economic numbers over the longer term. Ironically, we have better data about the disease than we do about our economy...despite one being far more difficult to detect.

[jamincan]

I actually disagree with you Dan. I think people are far more likely to treat a stronger lockdown seriously. The problem we face right now is that the government is taking rather limp measures to control things, which does not drive the seriousness to the public. So they think that, yes, we should take things seriously, but this little exception here is okay, and this other little exception is okay. It doesn't help that we've seen countless examples of Doug Ford himself, along with other leaders (hello Karen Redman) making exactly the same decisions. If, on the other hand, the government message is to batten down the hatches and put on your life vests, we need to ride this one out - people are far more likely to pay attention and treat it with the seriousness it deserves. Doug Ford tutting from a podium doesn't cut it.

[danbrotherston]

I actually disagree with you Dan. I think people are far more likely to treat a stronger lockdown seriously. The problem we face right now is that the government is taking rather limp measures to control things, which does not drive the seriousness to the public. So they think that, yes, we should take things seriously, but this little exception here is okay, and this other little exception is okay. It doesn't help that we've seen countless examples of Doug Ford himself, along with other leaders (hello Karen Redman) making exactly the same decisions. If, on the other hand, the government message is to batten down the hatches and put on your life vests, we need to ride this one out - people are far more likely to pay attention and treat it with the seriousness it deserves. Doug Ford tutting from a podium doesn't cut it.

Right now yes, I agree, that's not what I'm talking about. I mean from before, in March, when everything shut down. What do you think they could have done that would have been stronger? And do you think those measures would have been respected, or people would be angry about them?

Right now, yes, they're doing almost nothing...it's complete bullshit now.

[jamincan]

I think that the problem with the lockdown at the end of March was that they ended it too quickly.

[tomh009]

The cases were really trending mostly in the right direction until mid-August, so I am hesitant to say that the relaxing of the restrictions in May, for example, was a key problem.

Stage 3 in August is what seems to have triggered it. Whether Stage 3 in itself, or the perception it gave to people that things are OK now. Reposting the chart from a few pages earlier:

[danbrotherston]

I think that the problem with the lockdown at the end of March was that they ended it too quickly.

I do agree with that, I think they should have kept it till we were near zero cases, instead of in the high tens, low hundred.

That being said, I don't think it would have changed the spike now, we really should have locked down two weeks ago...and in two weeks, I fear I will be saying the same thing.

[jeffster]

The cases were really trending mostly in the right direction until mid-August, so I am hesitant to say that the relaxing of the restrictions in May, for example, was a key problem.

Stage 3 in August is what seems to have triggered it. Whether Stage 3 in itself, or the perception it gave to people that things are OK now. Reposting the chart from a few pages earlier:

I think people are letting their guard down. I think people are getting more physical with each other too, like hugs and handshakes.

Another issue I see is more and more people not wearing masks while in public, including on GRT and Ion. I think, especially on transit, wearing a mask needs to be enforced 100%.

[danbrotherston]

The cases were really trending mostly in the right direction until mid-August, so I am hesitant to say that the relaxing of the restrictions in May, for example, was a key problem.

Stage 3 in August is what seems to have triggered it. Whether Stage 3 in itself, or the perception it gave to people that things are OK now. Reposting the chart from a few pages earlier:...

I mean, we cannot know, I suspect cases would have dropped faster. They were still too high when we started opening.

The real questions for me are what are the priorities. I think safe school, medical appointments and holidays should have been the priorities.

Instead we opened up indoor restaurants, clubs, strip joints, and now casinos, and did virtually nothing to ensure school would be safe.

[tomh009]

Yes, I agree the cases would likely have dropped faster. But if we had just held off on the stage 3, we might have 500 active cases now (quite manageable) rather than nearly 5,000.

But, here we are. I do hope our leaders learned something from this fiasco.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-09-29

Waterloo Region reported five new cases for today (3.2% of the active cases) -- with two more cases for yesterday (now 13 new cases, 8.0% of actives).  76 new cases for the week (-9), averaging 7.0% of active cases. 156 active cases (+13 in the last seven days).

For the time being at least, the region appears to be handling the second wave better than some other parts of Ontario. We'll have to wait and see whether Oktoberfest has an impact on that, though.

The region reported a total of 131,533 tests, up by 43,957 in the last four days. That surely cannot be correct so need to wait for either a correction or clarification.

Ontario reported 554 new cases today with a seven-day average of 476, still going up. 323 recoveries and four deaths translated to an increase of 227 active cases and a current total of 4,791. A weekly total change of +1,213 active cases. 38,375 tests for a 1.44% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.22% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 11.6% of the number of active cases, averaging 11.4% over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 30 (+1). Total hospital population is up to 137.

• 251 cases in Toronto: 7.6 per 100K population
  
• 79 cases in Peel: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 106 cases in Ottawa: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in York: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Hamilton: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Durham: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Waterloo: 2.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[ijmorlan]

The real questions for me are what are the priorities. I think safe school, medical appointments and holidays should have been the priorities.

Instead we opened up indoor restaurants, clubs, strip joints, and now casinos, and did virtually nothing to ensure school would be safe.

Right on. School and medical appointments can’t simply stop indefinitely. Casinos and clubs are clearly extra. Restaurants are in between but shouldn’t be open unless they can be open safely.

[Bjays93]

Ontario continuing to trend upwards again today. 

Another thing I dont like is when they release their predictive models like they did today. Anyone with half a brain knows that we'll hit 1000 cases a day soon, if nothing changes. Its like they're trying to scare people into staying home instead of implementing any measures theirselves. Then if the numbers dont come true, like the first time they released them back in march, trust in the government, and their transparency around covid only goes down. People will think its overblown etc.

[ac3r]

The province is expecting 1000 cases per day throughout October. Data is also showing that most new cases are in people under 40 (which are now starting to spill out to other demographics) and Tor Star ran a story today that suggests one issue may be that the province/health officials are doing a poor job at informing younger demographics in the right way. The solution? TikTok. Okay, obviously it will take more than some 10 second TikTok video memes to drill this into the heads of youth, but it does illustrate a point: young people are not likely to be tuning into daily press briefings about this stuff and that there are other ways to reiterate health advice to everyone, which is absolutely a necessity since this isn't going anywhere for a few more months.