The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

The Economist pulled together a whole lot of data and did some good analysis. I believe this article is free to read with just a registration:
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/...gures-show

One conclusion? The new case numbers may now be hitting or even exceeding those in the first wave. But there is a strong likelihood that actual case numbers in the first wave were far higher, but the testing was much more limited than it is now. (They estimate that at the peak, in April/May, there may have been as many as 5M new cases per day.)

Worthwhile reading, to be sure.

[danbrotherston]

Ontario continuing to trend upwards again today. 

Another thing I dont like is when they release their predictive models like they did today. Anyone with half a brain knows that we'll hit 1000 cases a day soon, if nothing changes. Its like they're trying to scare people into staying home instead of implementing any measures theirselves. Then if the numbers dont come true, like the first time they released them back in march, trust in the government, and their transparency around covid only goes down. People will think its overblown etc.

There's lots of people without half a brain it seems.

That being said, releasing the models does not help those folks.

The province is expecting 1000 cases per day throughout October. Data is also showing that most new cases are in people under 40 (which are now starting to spill out to other demographics) and Tor Star ran a story today that suggests one issue may be that the province/health officials are doing a poor job at informing younger demographics in the right way. The solution? TikTok. Okay, obviously it will take more than some 10 second TikTok video memes to drill this into the heads of youth, but it does illustrate a point: young people are not likely to be tuning into daily press briefings about this stuff and that there are other ways to reiterate health advice to everyone, which is absolutely a necessity since this isn't going anywhere for a few more months.

I do think it is important to engage people through the channels they participate in. That being said, I don't think the briefs are affecting anyone's behaviour. Frankly, the spikes among young people clearly show that young people are not acting safely. But Octoberfest is in full swing, and our Regional Chair is out doing shotskiis with people and posting on social media. Old folks are also acting poorly.

Frankly, I fear this thanksgiving may be frankly...a bloodbath...there are probably thousands of asymptomatic or low symptomatic people out there, who have been infected because they are not treating this seriously...who will go visit their family, including elderly family for Thanksgiving, because they are not taking it seriously...

[Coke6pk]

Karen Redman was caught Tweeting photos of herself at Oktoberfest, giving no fucks about Covid-19: https://twitter.com/Redman4Region/status...7295612929

Indeed. I have always thought of her as a milquetoast centrist politician, but this gave me a strong negative impression of her, she's not a leader. 

In other news, while Octoberfesters are welcome to come into our city and to shotskiis till they're stumbling, students are again told to stay home for any student event.

As someone who was present for the keg tapping where two of those pictures were taken, this is being blown out of proportion.

Everyone was at a table (where they are allowed to remove masks... like every other restaurant in the region).  The visiting keg tapping group, as well as all the servers and staff were fully masked.  (Even Onkle Hans).  The band were behind a plastic barrier.  There was do dancing and there were young children... the Schwaben Club looked like any other restaurant.  This was not a typical Oktoberfest event.

Does a picture of a shot-ski look bad in context.... maybe.  If all members were part of the same family/bubble, there was no greater harm than those drinking at the same time at The Keg.

Coke

[Coke6pk]

Yes, we aren't done yet, this is why we should lock down again now that we are seeing surging case numbers. But the end is in sight.

If you want to save as many lives as possible than we must have a lockdown now, and we must continue to lock down every time cases increase until we have a vaccine broadly available mid next year.

I agree with this absolutely. I dont consider this lockdown at all, but I dont think our lockdown before was strict enough either. 
 
I think the most effective option is total lockdown, till there is no community transmission, like some countries have done. Continue with that method during a resurgence of infections, until there is viable and consistent treatment

I agree, a total lockdown for 3 weeks is what we need.. however, we still need doctors, nurses to care for the sick.  We need emergency services personnel.  We need the utilities to keep our hydro / gas running.  And how do these people get around.  Are taxis/Uber, transit and/or gas stations now essential.  As the true essential groups need to be exempt from a lockdown, the other occupations they depend on will keep growing essential worker lists and we can't eradicate like a true lockdown would do.

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Coke

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-09-30

Waterloo Region reported nine new cases for today (5.9% of the active cases) -- with no additional cases for yesterday.  65 new cases for the week (-11), averaging 5.9% of active cases. 153 active cases (-1 in the last seven days).

The region's testing figures now include LTC facilities which (for some reason) were previously included. Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 625 new cases today with a seven-day average of 518, going up quickly. 457 recoveries and another four deaths translated to an increase of 164 active cases and a current total of 4,955. A weekly total change of +1,303 active cases. 35,753 tests for a 1.75% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.34% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 12.6% of the number of active cases, averaging 11.9% over the past seven days.

ICU patient count is at 35 (+5). Total hospital population is up to 150. The hospital population has now tripled and the ICU population doubled in the last 30 days (increases in the ICU numbers are likely to lag those in the overall hospital population, though).

• 288 cases in Toronto: 8.5 per 100K population
  
• 97 cases in Peel: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Ottawa: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in York: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Halton: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Durham: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Waterloo: 1.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

Note: threshold for list inclusion changed from 10 to 20 effective today

[tomh009]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

[ijmorlan]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

As part of preparation for next time, we should make sure we are able to do a true lockdown. Just off the cuff, this means that we should have stockpiles in place to get food to everybody and logistics organized to get the few people who need to be out (hydro workers, food delivery, medical, and precious little else) to where they need to be. Also there should be provision for places like care homes to lockdown — which means nobody goes in or out, just like every other residential unit. This implies staff stay there for the lockdown, which is what is needed to protect the residents.

The only reason this is impossible is because we have not prepared. It’s just one aspect of disaster preparedness. The same preparations would also help with hurricanes, pipeline explosions, terrorist attacks, and just about any sort of other adversity one can imagine.

[Coke6pk]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

Thats unfortunate.  I thought the only grocery products there were junk food.  I'm not a frequent Dollarama patron.  However, a true shutdown should include all grocery stores... we would need to plan ahead... but if we can't keep toilet paper in stock when thats not even something we need to stockpile, the panic-buying for true essentials would be ridiculous.  

Coke

[Coke6pk]

I agree casinos, Dollarama, bars, etc. are not anywhere close to being essential, so we could be shutting down better than we are, but a true lockdown would be impossible.

As part of preparation for next time, we should make sure we are able to do a true lockdown. Just off the cuff, this means that we should have stockpiles in place to get food to everybody and logistics organized to get the few people who need to be out (hydro workers, food delivery, medical, and precious little else) to where they need to be. Also there should be provision for places like care homes to lockdown — which means nobody goes in or out, just like every other residential unit. This implies staff stay there for the lockdown, which is what is needed to protect the residents.

The only reason this is impossible is because we have not prepared. It’s just one aspect of disaster preparedness. The same preparations would also help with hurricanes, pipeline explosions, terrorist attacks, and just about any sort of other adversity one can imagine.

Those other events aren't contagious... so there is less risk having others out and about.

You state food delivery... where are they getting the food.  Those places need to be staffed.

Who is enforcing the lockdown?  Those people need to be out.

The delivery drivers need gas... so gas station employees need to be out.

I think we all agree a real lockdown is the best course of action, I just don't think it can be attained.

Coke

[panamaniac]

A bit late for “in preparation for next time”. Next time is here ...

[danbrotherston]

Indeed. I have always thought of her as a milquetoast centrist politician, but this gave me a strong negative impression of her, she's not a leader. 

In other news, while Octoberfesters are welcome to come into our city and to shotskiis till they're stumbling, students are again told to stay home for any student event.

As someone who was present for the keg tapping where two of those pictures were taken, this is being blown out of proportion.

Everyone was at a table (where they are allowed to remove masks... like every other restaurant in the region).  The visiting keg tapping group, as well as all the servers and staff were fully masked.  (Even Onkle Hans).  The band were behind a plastic barrier.  There was do dancing and there were young children... the Schwaben Club looked like any other restaurant.  This was not a typical Oktoberfest event.

Does a picture of a shot-ski look bad in context.... maybe.  If all members were part of the same family/bubble, there was no greater harm than those drinking at the same time at The Keg.

Coke

I really don't agree. I am not saying anything illegal is going on, but our leaders should be held to a higher standard, they should be demonstrating safe behaviour, and going out to Oktoberfest and doing shotskiis is not that.

More, I don't even think there should be Oktoberfest in this form at all. I am not visiting my family during Thanksgiving in order to be safe, because the public health recommends you avoid close contact with people outside your bubble. Public health and city council have attempted to stop any homecoming celebrations. But Octoberfestors are out drinking and carrying on--I find that in very bad form, and bad taste, but for a key elected official, terrible.

[panamaniac]

I thought Oktoberfest was “virtual” this year.

[jamincan]

Regardless of the details, it was unquestionably in poor taste. At least it felt that way to me. Here everyone is facing down a situation that is starting to look very similar to earlier this spring and wondering what that will all entail, and then the regional chair shows up on twitter doing shotskis?

[plam]

As part of preparation for next time, we should make sure we are able to do a true lockdown. Just off the cuff, this means that we should have stockpiles in place to get food to everybody and logistics organized to get the few people who need to be out (hydro workers, food delivery, medical, and precious little else) to where they need to be. Also there should be provision for places like care homes to lockdown — which means nobody goes in or out, just like every other residential unit. This implies staff stay there for the lockdown, which is what is needed to protect the residents.

The only reason this is impossible is because we have not prepared. It’s just one aspect of disaster preparedness. The same preparations would also help with hurricanes, pipeline explosions, terrorist attacks, and just about any sort of other adversity one can imagine.

Lockdowns do work, and shielding vulnerable populations doesn't work. However, Zeynep Tufekci has been right about a lot of things, and is now suggesting that once the numbers are sufficiently low (which is probably not the case in Ontario now), better contact tracing and cluster busting are more likely to work. Contact tracing needs to figure out who people got COVID from, not who they may pass it on to. And cluster busting is about eliminating the superspreader events that have been such a problem.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...ic/616548/

[ijmorlan]

Those other events aren't contagious... so there is less risk having others out and about.

You state food delivery... where are they getting the food.  Those places need to be staffed.

Who is enforcing the lockdown?  Those people need to be out.

The delivery drivers need gas... so gas station employees need to be out.

I think we all agree a real lockdown is the best course of action, I just don't think it can be attained.

Coke

That’s why it has to be pre-planned. Everything that is to remain open has to have a plan to operate safely. There are lots of ways to do this; but in a severe enough situation, it could be entirely reasonable to have the roads closed except for explicitly permitted activity. So for example, a gas station employee might be authorized to drive from their home to the gas station, and nowhere else.

Unfortunately, I suspect we do not collectively have the skills to have a meaningful debate on how this should be done. I certainly don’t have the answers, but I know that somebody who immediately says, “but … my rights!” when they see this suggestion probably has little to contribute. On the flip side, anybody who immediately dismisses the needs of people to see friends during a situation like this also has little to contribute.

So as a practical rather than theoretical matter, you may well be right.