The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

FRIDAY 2020-10-16

Waterloo Region reported 10 new cases for today (9.8% of the active cases) -- and three additional cases for yesterday (now 10 cases total, 10.0% of actives).  94 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 11.3% of active cases. 102 active cases (-17 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,407 tests per day for the last week with an average positivity of 1.15%.

Ontario reported 712 new cases today with a seven-day average of 747 (-32). 713 recoveries and nine deaths translated to an drop of 10 active casea, and a current total of 5,873. A weekly total change of +221 active cases. 38,507 tests for a 1.85% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.99% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 67 (+5) and the total hospital population was up to 261 (+8).

• 213 cases in Toronto: 7.4 per 100K population
  
• 135 cases in Peel: 13.5 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in Ottawa: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in York: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Durham: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Halton: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Waterloo: 1.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

Test positivity rate is still climbing.

Out of curiosity though...why the log scale for test positivity rate...seems unnecessarily distorting.

[tomh009]

Excel only allows two vertical axes, and I have the number of cases on one and the two percentages on the other. If I user a linear scale for the percentages, it is quite difficult to see movement in the positivity rate as the % of actives is roughly 5x the positivity. Not ideal this way, but I decided it was better than the other way

Positivity is up in the last five days, but that's partly because the number of tests is down by 20-25%. The two are interlinked and it's hard to know how exactly much of the positivity to attribute to the lower number of tests.

[danbrotherston]

Excel only allows two vertical axes, and I have the number of cases on one and the two percentages on the other. If I user a linear scale for the percentages, it is quite difficult to see movement in the positivity rate as the % of actives is roughly 5x the positivity. Not ideal this way, but I decided it was better than the other way

Positivity is up in the last five days, but that's partly because the number of tests is down by 20-25%. The two are interlinked and it's hard to know how exactly much of the positivity to attribute to the lower number of tests.

Indeed, that is my question as well.

I wonder how much validity there is in simply scaling the cases by the positivity rate?

[tomh009]

Excel only allows two vertical axes, and I have the number of cases on one and the two percentages on the other. If I user a linear scale for the percentages, it is quite difficult to see movement in the positivity rate as the % of actives is roughly 5x the positivity. Not ideal this way, but I decided it was better than the other way

Positivity is up in the last five days, but that's partly because the number of tests is down by 20-25%. The two are interlinked and it's hard to know how exactly much of the positivity to attribute to the lower number of tests.

Indeed, that is my question as well.

I wonder how much validity there is in simply scaling the cases by the positivity rate?

I think that's too simplistic. Generally the high-risk people (with exposure risk or symptoms) are most likely to get tested, so the fewer people you test, the higher the positivity rate will be. As you test more and more members of the general public (without any specific risks) you will get closer to a positivity rate that matches the percentage of the population that is infected (and not yet confirmed).

But I can't predict what that curve looks like. Maybe someone on the Internet has done this work but I have not yet stumbled across it.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-10-16

Waterloo Region reported 14 new cases for today (13.2% of the active cases) -- and five additional cases for yesterday (now 15 cases total, 13.9% of actives).  95 new cases for the week (+1), averaging 11.5% of active cases. 106 active cases (-16 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 805 new cases today with a seven-day average of 746 (-1). 682 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to an increase of 113 active cases, and a current total of 5,986. A weekly total change of +232 active cases. 44,722 tests for a 1.80% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.99% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count was up to 72 (+5) and the total hospital population was up to 278 (+17). The ICU population has shot up from 14 to 72 in the past six weeks, in spite of a greater percentage of younger patients. Our hospitals can still deal with this (we hit 264 in April), but the longer this trend continues the more worrisome it gets.

• 374 cases in Toronto: 13.0 per 100K population
  
• 107 cases in Peel: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in York: 8.6 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Ottawa: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Halton: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Waterloo: 2.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

It seems to me by limiting testing to appointments only, the government is trying to obfuscate the actual backlog in testing. All centres in Waterloo Region, for example, only accept appointments for the same day and then stop accepting appointments once the limit is reached. How many people are trying to get tested, then? It's pretty much impossible to know with any certainty.

There are some datapoints, though. I checked Halton Region, and they are accepting appointments into the future, and right now the earliest available appointment is a week away (that may have become even greater since I last checked). That's pretty dire if true.

Replying to an old message ... my wife and I booked tests on Thursday afternoon, and got into the 10:30-11:30 drive-through slot at 137 the next dat, so less than 24h delay for getting a test. There were times available elsewhere, too. Actual testing site was calm and organized.

She got her result within 24h, mine was for some reason about 34h, but still the next day for results, too. So, roughly 48h from booking to test results.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-10-18

Waterloo Region reported 9 new cases for today (9.2% of the active cases) -- and one additional case for yesterday (now 15 cases total, 14.3% of actives).  95 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 98 active cases (-19 in the last seven days), the first time below 100 since one month ago.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 658 new cases today with a seven-day average of 747 (+1). 685 recoveries and five deaths translated to a drop of 32 active cases, and a current total of 5,954. A weekly total change of +257 active cases. 40,850 tests for a 1.61% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.01% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count ticked down to 71 (-1).

• 197 cases in Toronto: 6.8 per 100K population
  
• 155 cases in Peel: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in York: 8.6 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Ottawa: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Durham: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Halton: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Waterloo: 0.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[jamincan]

It seems to me by limiting testing to appointments only, the government is trying to obfuscate the actual backlog in testing. All centres in Waterloo Region, for example, only accept appointments for the same day and then stop accepting appointments once the limit is reached. How many people are trying to get tested, then? It's pretty much impossible to know with any certainty.

There are some datapoints, though. I checked Halton Region, and they are accepting appointments into the future, and right now the earliest available appointment is a week away (that may have become even greater since I last checked). That's pretty dire if true.

Replying to an old message ... my wife and I booked tests on Thursday afternoon, and got into the 10:30-11:30 drive-through slot at 137 the next dat, so less than 24h delay for getting a test. There were times available elsewhere, too. Actual testing site was calm and organized.

She got her result within 24h, mine was for some reason about 34h, but still the next day for results, too. So, roughly 48h from booking to test results.

Incidentally, I got tested as well, over the weekend. Booked it Saturday morning, got tested early Sunday morning, and had my result this morning. The testing site actually says that the result was reported yesterday, so it seems like they might actually have a faster turn around than even 24 hr now.

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2020-10-19

Waterloo Region reported six new cases for today (6.7% of the active cases) -- and four additional cases for yesterday (now 13 cases total, 13.0% of actives).  90 new cases for the week (-5), averaging 11.5% of active cases. 89 active cases (-27 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 704 new cases today with a seven-day average of 733 (-14). 607 recoveries and four deaths translated to an increase of 93 active cases, and a current total of 6,047, a new record. Still the weekly total change of +214 active cases is not as bad as recently. 31,864 tests for a 2.21% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.01% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count ticked down to 69 (-2).

• 244 cases in Toronto: 7.8 per 100K population
  
• 168 cases in Peel: 16.8 per 100K
  
• 103 cases in York: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Ottawa: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Halton: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Waterloo: 2.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[panamaniac]

Things beginning to stabilize in Ottawa, with any luck.

[tomh009]

Things beginning to stabilize in Ottawa, with any luck.

Three days of 60ish cases. A good start, but let's see whether that's real or just a false spring.

The same goes for the Ontario-wide numbers, it seems to have stabilized in 700 range for the last 10 days or so. Maybe.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-10-20

Waterloo Region reported nine new cases for today (9.6% of the active cases) -- and five additional cases for yesterday (now 11 cases total, 11.7% of actives).  80 new cases for the week (-10), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 94 active cases (-44 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,058 tests per day over the last seven days. Positivity rate averaged 1.23%.

Ontario reported 821 new cases today with a seven-day average of 743 (+10). 628 recoveries and three deaths translated to an increase of 190 active cases, and a current total of 6,237, another new record. +291 active cases for the week. Only 24,048 tests resulted in a high 3.41% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.15% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is up to 72 (+3).

• 327 cases in Toronto: 9.3 per 100K population
  
• 136 cases in Peel: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Ottawa: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in York: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Halton: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Hamilton: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Durham: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Waterloo: 2.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[ZEBuilder]

Only 24,048 tests resulted in a high 3.41% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.15% for the past seven days.

why have our tests per day been steadly decreasing its not like its a holiday or something?

[danbrotherston]

Only 24,048 tests resulted in a high 3.41% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.15% for the past seven days.

why have our tests per day been steadly decreasing its not like its a holiday or something?

AFAIK they have increased the restrictions on who can get tested.

[tomh009]

why have our tests per day been steadly decreasing its not like its a holiday or something?

AFAIK they have increased the restrictions on who can get tested.

Today's results are really based on Sunday testing activity, I think (tested Sunday, completed Monday, shows on Ontario report on Tuesday) so Monday/Tuesday test numbers tend to be lower. For the last three weeks, Mon/Tue tests average 33,900 while the rest of the week averages 41,500.

At least last week in our region there was no shortage of testing capacity. But they are looking for people that might have caught the virus somewhere, not just random people.