The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

A few points here. First, healthcare is a provincial responsibility so while the federal government has procured vaccines, the provinces are responsible for planning and executing the actual vaccinations. This is how our healthcare system works (Israel, for example, does not have a federal government). The provinces, of course, are still able to buy additional vaccines should they not be satisfied with what the federal government is supplying.

Second, the vaccine deliveries are scheduled by the manufacturers. Multiple media sources have confirmed that the federal government shares the committed dates with the provinces but the manufacturers may not always (be able) to provide specific dates well into the future.

Third, there has been no waiting "to see how the vaccine worked in other countries first": Health Canada has done its own certification process, as should be done, and it's based on data from the trials, not from any vaccination activity. The BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine was approved before any country had started vaccinations with it, and the Moderna was roughly at the same time. And the executives from both those companies have confirmed that Canadian orders were very close to the front of the line.

The AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is not approved yet as the manufacturer has not provided all the requested data yet. Neither EU or the US have approved it, either (the phase 3 trial was a bit of a dog's breakfast): it has only been approved by the UK, Argentina, El Salvador, India, Mexico, Bangladesh and the Dominican Republic.

Finally, building a plant to manufacture the mRNA-based vaccines (which are the only ones approved to date) is no quick task. The conventional vaccines are easier, and there are vaccine manufacturing facilities in Canada. In fact, Medicago (based in Quebec City) has a COVID-19 vaccine in the works, but it only started phase 2 trials in November so it will still be months away from approval.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-09 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	184	47.3	198	50.9	-0%
Peel	691	50.0	539	39.0	+23%
Lambton	56	42.7	45	34.3	-8%
York	427	38.5	366	33.0	+3%
Toronto	932	31.8	864	29.5	+18%
Niagara	213	47.6	128	28.5	+36%
Hamilton	176	30.4	140	24.2	+25%
Durham	170	26.3	152	23.5	+15%
Middlesex-London	53	13.1	95	23.4	+18%
Southwestern Ontario	40	20.0	47	23.3	-92%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	85	31.3	58	21.3	+42%
Eastern Ontario	45	22.2	43	21.0	+18%
Waterloo	147	23.8	125	20.1	+47%
Halton	134	24.4	105	19.1	+11%
Huron Perth	31	31.6	19	18.9	+12%
Brant	41	30.1	25	18.5	+15%
Chatham-Kent	10	9.4	19	17.8	+2%
Ottawa	154	15.5	121	12.1	+22%
Simcoe-Muskoka	75	13.9	65	12.1	+7%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	7	4.1	7	4.3	-46%
Kingston Frontenac	12	5.9	8	3.8	+26%
Thunder Bay	8	5.3	6	3.7	+53%

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-01-09

Waterloo Region reported 131 new cases today (13.8% of the active cases); 966 new cases for the week (-14), averaging 17.6% of active cases. 991 active cases, +313 in the last seven days.

Ontario reported 3,443 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,406 (+52). 2,915 recoveries and 40 deaths translated to an increase of 488 active cases and a new total of 28,691. +5,844 active cases for the week and 297 deaths (42 per day). 72,900 tests for a positivity rate of 4.72%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.54% for the past seven days, compared to 5.55% for the preceding seven.

382 patients in ICU (+13), and a total of 1457 hospital beds in use (+186 for the week).

• 691 cases in Peel: 50.0 per 100K
  
• 213 cases in Niagara: 47.6 per 100K
  
• 184 cases in Windsor-Essex: 47.3 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Lambton: 42.7 per 100K
  
• 427 cases in York: 38.5 per 100K
  
• 932 cases in Toronto: 31.8 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Huron Perth: 31.6 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 31.3 per 100K
  
• 176 cases in Hamilton: 30.4 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Brant: 30.1 per 100K
  
• 170 cases in Durham: 26.3 per 100K
  
• 134 cases in Halton: 24.4 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in Waterloo: 23.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 45 cases in Eastern Ontario: 22.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 20.0 per 100K
  
• 154 cases in Ottawa: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 75 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 13.9 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Middlesex-London: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Chatham-Kent: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Thunder Bay: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.1 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-01-10

Waterloo Region reported 152 new cases today (14.6% of the active cases) plus 46 additional ones for yesterday; 1,069 new cases for the week (+103), averaging 18.3% of active cases. 1,092 active cases, +410 in the last seven days.

Ontario reported 3,945 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,546 (+140). 2,496 recoveries and 61 deaths translated to an increase of 1,388 active cases and a new total of 30,079. +6,468 active cases for the week and 333 deaths (48 per day). 62,308 tests for a positivity rate of 6.33%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.59% for the past seven days, compared to 5.71% for the preceding seven.

388 patients in ICU (+6), and a total of 1,483 hospital beds in use (+485 for the week).

• 223 cases in Windsor-Essex: 57.4 per 100K
  
• 641 cases in Peel: 46.4 per 100K
  
• 173 cases in Middlesex-London: 42.7 per 100K
  
• 1,160 cases in Toronto: 39.6 per 100K
  
• 220 cases in Waterloo: 35.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 72 cases in Eastern Ontario: 35.5 per 100K
  
• 151 cases in Niagara: 33.7 per 100K
  
• 357 cases in York: 32.2 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Brant: 30.9 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Lambton: 29.8 per 100K
  
• 190 cases in Durham: 29.4 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 25.4 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 24.5 per 100K
  
• 118 cases in Halton: 21.5 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 15.7 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Chatham-Kent: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Huron Perth: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Thunder Bay: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Ottawa: 13.0 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Hamilton: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.9 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-11 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	118	30.4	195	50.2	+4%
Peel	531	38.4	588	42.5	-1%
Lambton	90	68.7	46	34.8	+63%
Toronto	931	31.8	1,002	34.2	+16%
Niagara	168	37.5	153	34.2	+21%
York	241	21.7	335	30.2	-4%
Middlesex-London	141	34.8	120	29.7	+5%
Waterloo	165	26.7	165	26.8	+11%
Durham	143	22.1	166	25.7	-1%
Eastern Ontario	69	34.0	51	25.1	+50%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	56	20.6	66	24.4	+2%
Southwestern Ontario	81	40.5	46	22.8	+67%
Hamilton	146	25.2	129	22.3	-68%
Huron Perth	27	27.6	19	19.4	+46%
Halton	81	14.8	105	19.1	-33%
Brant	14	10.3	25	18.5	+10%
Chatham-Kent	21	19.8	19	17.5	-117%
Ottawa	159	16.0	144	14.4	+28%
Simcoe-Muskoka	84	15.5	75	13.8	+25%
Thunder Bay	4	2.7	8	5.6	+37%
Kingston Frontenac	5	2.4	8	3.9	-97%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	4	2.4	5	3.0	-153%

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-01-11

Waterloo Region reported 154 new cases today (14.0% of the active cases) plus 14 additional ones for yesterday; 1,096 new cases for the week (+27), averaging 17.6% of active cases. 1,056 active cases, +336 in the last seven days.

Ontario reported 3,338 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,555 (+9). 2,756 recoveries and 29 deaths translated to an increase of 553 active cases and a new total of 30,632. +5,854 active cases for the week and 333 deaths (48 per day). 46,403 tests for a positivity rate of 7.19%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.43% for the past seven days, compared to 6.21% for the preceding seven.

387 patients in ICU (-1), and a total of at least 1,563 hospital beds in use (+373 for the week).

• 90 cases in Lambton: 68.7 per 100K
  
• 81 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 40.5 per 100K
  
• 531 cases in Peel: 38.4 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in Niagara: 37.5 per 100K
  
• 141 cases in Middlesex-London: 34.8 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Eastern Ontario: 34.0 per 100K
  
• 931 cases in Toronto: 31.8 per 100K
  
• 118 cases in Windsor-Essex: 30.4 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Huron Perth: 27.6 per 100K
  
• 165 cases in Waterloo: 26.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 146 cases in Hamilton: 25.2 per 100K
  
• 143 cases in Durham: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 241 cases in York: 21.7 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 20.6 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Chatham-Kent: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 159 cases in Ottawa: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 84 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 81 cases in Halton: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Brant: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  

SWO is now in worse shape than the GTA.

[ac3r]

While we do have a lot of cases locally, our hospitalization rates are pretty low which is great. We only have 23 hospitalized (9 of them being in the ICU) for this disease. I don't know whether or not this number includes the people hospitalized at GRH Freeport Site (since their Covid-19 unit was only holding people who weren't severely ill) or just GRH Downtown Site, St Mary's and Cambridge Memorial.

[plam]

While we do have a lot of cases locally, our hospitalization rates are pretty low which is great. We only have 23 hospitalized (9 of them being in the ICU) for this disease. I don't know whether or not this number includes the people hospitalized at GRH Freeport Site (since their Covid-19 unit was only holding people who weren't severely ill) or just GRH Downtown Site, St Mary's and Cambridge Memorial.

For now. Unfortunately hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

[danbrotherston]

While we do have a lot of cases locally, our hospitalization rates are pretty low which is great. We only have 23 hospitalized (9 of them being in the ICU) for this disease. I don't know whether or not this number includes the people hospitalized at GRH Freeport Site (since their Covid-19 unit was only holding people who weren't severely ill) or just GRH Downtown Site, St Mary's and Cambridge Memorial.

For now. Unfortunately hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

Indeed, and as far as I am aware, the numbers are only spiking hard in the past week...it often takes that long for people to get to the point that they need to be hospitalized. I have no doubt that medical staff are bracing for the next few weeks...

[ac3r]

The federal government has granted the Region of Waterloo 4.1 million dollars to contribute to our 54 bed isolation site for those who may not have anywhere to safely isolate. They seem to be putting emphasis on BIPOC and lower income individuals: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...te-3251020

They haven't mentioned where this site is for privacy reasons, which is sensible, but it does have me wondering where they are.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-01-12

Waterloo Region reported 140 new cases today (13.1% of the active cases) plus 11 additional ones for yesterday; 1,111 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 16.9% of active cases. 1,066 active cases, +284 in the last seven days.

Ontario reported 2,903 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,523 (-32). 3,553 recoveries and 41 deaths translated to a drop of 491 active cases and a new total of 30,141. +4,301 active cases for the week and 323 deaths (46 per day). 44,802 tests for a positivity rate of 6.48%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.08% for the past seven days, compared to 6.41% for the preceding seven -- it looks like we may have reached the peak of the holiday spike

385 patients in ICU (-2), and a total of 1,701 hospital beds in use (+354 for the week).

• 246 cases in Niagara: 54.9 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Lambton: 48.1 per 100K
  
• 158 cases in Windsor-Essex: 40.6 per 100K
  
• 545 cases in Peel: 39.4 per 100K
  
• 837 cases in Toronto: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 166 cases in Waterloo: 26.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 51 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 25.5 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Chatham-Kent: 24.5 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Huron Perth: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 249 cases in York: 22.4 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Middlesex-London: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 86 cases in Hamilton: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 75 cases in Durham: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 8.6 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Ottawa: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

More news just announced today: Ontario will now implement a province wide stay-at-home order this Thursday: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5868797

The restrictions are pretty severe. Also, they are projecting that LTC homes are likely going to see more cases and deaths during this second wave when compared to the first. Things are getting bad...

[tomh009]

Well, yes, they seem kind of severe.

The province says it is issuing the stay-at-home order effective Thursday at 12:01 a.m., which will require everyone to remain at home with exceptions for essential purposes, like going to the grocery store or pharmacy, accessing health care services, for exercise or for essential work.

... and yet ...

• Outdoor organized public gatherings and social gatherings are further restricted to a limit of five people with limited exceptions.
  
• All non-essential retail stores, including hardware stores, alcohol retailers, and those offering curbside pickup or delivery, must open no earlier than 7 a.m. and close no later than 8 p.m.

So, what is it? You can't leave your home for non-essential visits, but there will still be social gatherings and non-essential retail stores? What's the real answer?

[jamincan]

I've been complaining about the confused messaging from this government from the very beginning. Ford is completely out of his depth.

[ijmorlan]

So, what is it? You can't leave your home for non-essential visits, but there will still be social gatherings and non-essential retail stores? What's the real answer?

Also there is nothing wrong with going for a walk or a run. Just don’t form a crowd. Requiring short hours for retail likewise makes no sense — what is needed is to encourage long hours. In the extreme, imagine every store was open 7/24 (very expensive, of course, but just hypothetically): you could go shopping at 03:00 and have the store to yourself. One can’t reduce crowding by reducing the size in time and space of the volume in which the crowd exists.