The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-03-14

Waterloo Region reported 32 new cases for today (8.9% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for a total of 39; 278 new cases for the week (+2), averaging 11.0% of active cases. 347 active cases, -37 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.
Next vaccine report on Monday.

Ontario reported 1,747 new cases today (possibly including a catch-up of several hundred earlier cases from the GTA) with a seven-day average of 1,401 (+64). 1,167 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 565 active cases and a new total of 12,383. +1,994 active cases for the week and 86 deaths (12 per day). 47,618 tests for a positivity rate of 3.67%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.91% for the past seven days, compared to 2.26% for the preceding seven.

282 patients in ICU (+7 today, +9 for the week).

41,859 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 38,250. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-11-02 (-10 days).

• 38 cases in Lambton: 29.0 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Thunder Bay: 26.7 per 100K
  
• 352 cases in Peel: 25.5 per 100K
  
• 545 cases in Toronto: 18.6 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Brant: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Hamilton: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 163 cases in York: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Sudbury: 12.6 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Niagara: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.3 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Durham: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Ottawa: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Waterloo: 7.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 28 cases in Windsor-Essex: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Halton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Northwestern: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.2 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[plam]

41,859 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 38,250. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-11-02 (-10 days).

Yes I think the -10 is key here. And then we can model with that first derivative what the actual completion date would be (but what's the second derivative?)

It would be really good to find accurate B117 numbers as that's what we really need to worry about. Too bad they're hard to find.

[tomh009]

41,859 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 38,250. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-11-02 (-10 days).

Yes I think the -10 is key here. And then we can model with that first derivative what the actual completion date would be (but what's the second derivative?)

It would be really good to find accurate B117 numbers as that's what we really need to worry about. Too bad they're hard to find.

I think there is a lot of B.1.1.7 out there, and that is keeping the provincial case numbers at 1,000+.

The province's daily epidemiologic summary has the number of variant cases detected, but given the variable number of tests, that is really not a useful metric to determine these variants' penetration in Ontario. Publishing N501Y positivity rates would be much better -- and then positivity rates for each of the variants (as a percentage of N501Y positives).

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-03-15

Waterloo Region reported 24 new cases for today (6.9% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for a total of 31; 247 new cases for the week (-31), averaging 9.9% of active cases. 328 active cases, -66 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

A slow weekend, with an average of 1,074 doses of vaccine administered over the past three days, with a seven-day average of 1,224. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2022-01-23 (+4 days).

Ontario reported 1,268 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,350 (-51). 1,114 recoveries and nine deaths translated to an increase of 145 active cases and a new total of 12,528. +1,512 active cases for the week and 85 deaths (12 per day). 33,975 tests for a positivity rate of 3.73%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.83% for the past seven days, compared to 2.46% for the preceding seven.

298 patients in ICU (+17 today, +16 for the week).

33,198 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 39,867. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-10-24 (-9 days).

• 61 cases in Thunder Bay: 40.7 per 100K
  
• 220 cases in Peel: 15.9 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in York: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Brant: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 366 cases in Toronto: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Hamilton: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Lambton: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Northwestern: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 8.6 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Sudbury: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 53 cases in Durham: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Ottawa: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Chatham-Kent: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Waterloo: 2.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.6 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-16 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	29	19.3	55	36.4	-29%
Peel	199	14.4	241	17.5	-2%
Lambton	31	23.7	22	16.8	+53%
Toronto	313	10.7	394	13.4	-6%
Hamilton	66	11.4	66	11.5	+13%
Brant	21	15.4	16	11.4	+59%
York	101	9.1	126	11.3	+16%
Northwestern	3	3.4	8	9.2	-12%
Windsor-Essex	35	9.0	32	8.3	-22%
Chatham-Kent	9	8.5	9	8.0	+12%
Halton	27	4.9	41	7.5	-18%
Sudbury	9	2.3	28	7.3	+10%
Simcoe-Muskoka	15	2.8	37	6.9	-17%
Durham	27	4.2	44	6.9	-23%
Waterloo	31	5.0	40	6.5	-36%
Ottawa	66	6.6	64	6.5	+32%
Niagara	21	4.7	28	6.3	+4%
Eastern Ontario	10	4.9	12	6.0	+1%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	7	4.1	9	5.2	+71%
Middlesex-London	16	4.0	20	4.9	-23%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	7	2.6	13	4.8	-63%
Southwestern Ontario	12	6.0	8	4.1	+136%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	3	3.5	-44%
Ontario total					-3%

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-03-16

Waterloo Region reported 33 new cases for today (9.9% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 25; 251 new cases for the week (+4), averaging 10.2% of active cases. 322 active cases, -43 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,697 tests over the past week for a positivity rate of 2.11%.

1,698 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average of 1,260. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2022-01-14 (-9 days).

Ontario reported 1,074 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,334 (-16). 1,085 recoveries and 11 deaths translated to a drop of 22 active cases and a new total of 12,506. +1,283 active cases for the week and 90 deaths (13 per day). 28,526 tests for a positivity rate of 3.76%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.86% for the past seven days, compared to 2.52% for the preceding seven.

292 patients in ICU (-6 today, +2 for the week) and a total hospital bed count of 761 (+72 for the week).

51,579 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 42,800. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-10-10 (-14 days).

• 31 cases in Lambton: 23.7 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Thunder Bay: 19.3 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Brant: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 199 cases in Peel: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Hamilton: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 313 cases in Toronto: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in York: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Chatham-Kent: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Ottawa: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Waterloo: 5.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Halton: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Niagara: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Durham: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Northwestern: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Sudbury: 2.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-03-18 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Thunder Bay	30	20.0	53	35.5	-33%
Peel	294	21.3	252	18.2	-1%
Lambton	48	36.6	23	17.6	+58%
Toronto	404	13.8	414	14.1	-1%
York	176	15.9	130	11.7	+17%
Brant	11	8.1	15	11.0	+11%
Hamilton	80	13.8	63	10.8	+19%
Northwestern	11	12.5	8	9.4	-23%
Chatham-Kent	15	14.2	9	8.7	+9%
Windsor-Essex	33	8.5	31	8.1	-24%
Halton	38	6.9	40	7.3	-24%
Durham	85	13.2	47	7.2	+21%
Simcoe-Muskoka	15	2.8	39	7.2	-8%
Niagara	28	6.3	31	6.9	+45%
Ottawa	82	8.2	68	6.8	+23%
Sudbury	24	6.2	26	6.8	+1%
Eastern Ontario	33	16.3	14	6.7	+27%
Waterloo	43	7.0	39	6.3	-8%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	12	7.1	11	6.2	+105%
Middlesex-London	24	5.9	20	4.9	+9%
Southwestern Ontario	5	2.5	8	4.0	+28%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	18	6.6	11	4.0	+27%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	3	2.9	-25%
Kingston Frontenac	12	5.9	4	2.2	+233%
Ontario total					+15%

[ac3r]

I'm happy to see the cases dropping in our region. Unfortunately, the Ontario science table is suggesting yet another 3 week lockdown across the province as things are going up. I don't know how long they expect to keep relying on ineffective "lockdowns" because they barely do anything to limit the spread of the virus at this point and are just shuttering businesses and pushing people further and further into poverty: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/strict-three-...-1.5351152

[ac3r]

Trudeau's begging paid off. Canada to receive 1.5 million doses of the AstraZenica vaccine from the United States: https://www.cp24.com/news/u-s-plans-to-r...-1.5352509

Additionally, Waterloo Region expects to have enough vaccines for anyone who wants one by the end of June: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-new...ne-3553851

[tomh009]

Additionally, Waterloo Region expects to have enough vaccines for anyone who wants one by the end of June: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-new...ne-3553851

The region says they can deliver 13,000+ shots per day, but they have a long way to go from the current 1,600+ (weekly average only about 1,300).

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-03-17

Waterloo Region reported 41 new cases for today (12.6% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 32; 255 new cases for the week (+4), averaging 10.5% of active cases. 326 active cases, -19 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,632 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average of 1,318. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-12-31 (-14 days).

Ontario reported 1,508 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,361 (+27). 1,488 recoveries and 14 deaths translated to an increase of six active cases and a new total of 12,512. +1,201 active cases for the week and 88 deaths (13 per day). 49,128 tests for a positivity rate of 3.07%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.95% for the past seven days, compared to 2.60% for the preceding seven.

300 patients in ICU (+8 today, +19 for the week) and a total hospital bed count of 741 (+63 for the week).

58,202 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 46,077. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-09-26 (-14 days).

• 63 cases in Thunder Bay: 42.0 per 100K
  
• 542 cases in Toronto: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 253 cases in Peel: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Niagara: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 74 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 13.7 per 100K
  
• 107 cases in York: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Brant: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Waterloo: 7.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 69 cases in Ottawa: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Durham: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Hamilton: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Halton: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Lambton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Sudbury: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Northwestern: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[megabytephreak]

1,632 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average of 1,318. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-12-31 (-14 days).
58,202 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 46,077. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-09-26 (-14 days).

Is the first line here supposed to say 70% of the regional population?

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-03-18

Waterloo Region reported 31 new cases for today (9.4% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for a total of 43; 260 new cases for the week (+5), averaging 10.7% of active cases. 329 active cases, -20 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,632 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average of 1,407. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-12-12 (-12 days).

Ontario reported 1,553 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,427 (+66). 1,236 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 302 active cases and a new total of 12,814. +1,531 active cases for the week and 93 deaths (13 per day). 58,560 tests for a positivity rate of 2.65%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.07% -- back up over 3% again, unfortunately -- for the past seven days, compared to 2.64% for the preceding seven.

304 patients in ICU (+4 today, +27 for the week) and a total hospital bed count of 730 (+50 for the week). The ICU bed count is also back to the early-February levels.

58,119 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 48,578. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-09-17 (-9 days).

• 48 cases in Lambton: 36.6 per 100K
  
• 294 cases in Peel: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Thunder Bay: 20.0 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Eastern Ontario: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 176 cases in York: 15.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Chatham-Kent: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 80 cases in Hamilton: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 404 cases in Toronto: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in Durham: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Northwestern: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Windsor-Essex: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Ottawa: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Waterloo: 7.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 38 cases in Halton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Niagara: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Sudbury: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

1,632 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average of 1,318. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-12-31 (-14 days).
58,202 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 46,077. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-09-26 (-14 days).

Is the first line here supposed to say 70% of the regional population?

Sorry, will fix that!

[danbrotherston]

Additionally, Waterloo Region expects to have enough vaccines for anyone who wants one by the end of June: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-new...ne-3553851

The region says they can deliver 13,000+ shots per day, but they have a long way to go from the current 1,600+ (weekly average only about 1,300).

This is good news, June is a decent timeframe for this...it would be nice to go a little bit faster but ultimately this is no longer in the unacceptably bad territory.