04-13-2021, 03:51 PM
(04-13-2021, 02:31 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(04-13-2021, 02:06 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Is there a source for this?
I thought the goal with extending to 3 months was to get everyone a first shot first. In June and certainly in May many will still be waiting for a first shot. I wouldn't expect them to be bringing those shots up until there was excess supply.
I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd be extatic if there was excess supply in May...but I'm not putting any money on that bet.
I mean, we're almost half way through April and we aren't even broadly vaccinating 50+ at this point.
A source for the odds? No, the government doesn't publish odds.
But, let's do a bit of math. As of yesterday, about 17.7% of Ontario residents have had a single dose, and 2.5% have had two, for a total of 20.2%. The latter number is going up slowly enough that we can ignore it for the purposes of the back-of-the-envelope calculation here.
Now, Ontario is averaging almost 100K people per day (98,331/day for the past week) so let's use that number -- the numbers might yet increase depending on vaccine supplies but let's use the current rate. At 100K/day, it's enough for 1.8M in April, 3.1M in May and 3.0M in June: that's an incremental 53.6% of the total population by the end of May, for a total of 73.8%. By the time we get to 60%+ of the population, I fully expect that first shots will slow down as you start dealing with getting people out, whether it's people without Internet, hesitant people, busy people, whatever. So, my personal assessment is that in June we would be doing a significant number of second doses.
But that's assuming a supply of 9.1M doses for Ontario in Q2. The feds' plan is for a delivery of 35M doses to Canada in the quarter, which should translate to about 14M for Ontario, about 65% more than the calculation above. Add 5M to the above numbers, and we are well above the point of 100% first doses -- and we are not vaccinating kids, and we won't get to 100% on adults, either.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...doses.html
That is an optimistic assessment and schedule (aside from the high hesitancy rate).
I do hope you are right.