The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-04-27

Waterloo Region reported 51 new cases for today (7.7% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for a total of 44; 567 new cases for the week (-87), averaging 12.8% of active cases. 662 active cases, -38 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,502 daily tests for the past week for a positivity rate of 5.39%, a strong drop from last week's 7.32%.

4,762 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 4,489. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-20 (-2 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by nine days (-2).

Ontario reported 3,265 new cases today (albeit again on a rather low test volume) with a seven-day average of 3,888 (-29). 3,908 recoveries and 29 deaths translated to a decrease of 672 active cases and a new total of 39,914. -3,027 active cases for the week and 207 deaths (30 per day). 34,000 tests for a positivity rate of 9.60%. The positivity rate is averaging 8.46% for the past seven days, compared to 8.12% for the preceding seven.

875 patients in ICU (-2 today, +102 for the week) and a total hospital population of 2,336 (-24 for the week).

94,819 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 113,692. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-11 (+0 days).

• 673 cases in Peel: 48.7 per 100K
  
• 452 cases in York: 40.7 per 100K
  
• 1,044 cases in Toronto: 35.6 per 100K
  
• 171 cases in Durham: 26.5 per 100K
  
• 138 cases in Halton: 25.2 per 100K
  
• 119 cases in Hamilton: 20.5 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Middlesex-London: 19.5 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 18.0 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Brant: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 73 cases in Niagara: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 150 cases in Ottawa: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Waterloo: 9.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 17 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Northwestern: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Lambton: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[ac3r]

CBC has announced that the military will be deploying across the province to help take some strain off health care workers and the hospitals: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.6002130

Edit: The province of Newfoundland will also be dispatching some assistance to the province: https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1...0189290497

Ontario is now appealing to both the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America for additional health care workers: https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1...6867868689

Honestly...what the is the OPC doing? The province is falling apart and they're just being silent - or when they do have something to say, it's basically a "suck it up, we don't care if you have Covid-19, no sick days". We'd be a national embarrassment if this was not a matter of life and death.

[ac3r]

Canada has released some models on how many vaccines we'll need until we can lift our restrictions around the country. According to their models, we'll need 75 percent of adults to have 1 shot and 20 percent to have 2 shots before we can return to what we would consider normal.

MacLeans has a story here: https://www.macleans.ca/news/what-new-co...trictions/
And the government has a PDF of the models here: https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-a...423-en.pdf

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-04-28

Waterloo Region reported 68 new cases for today (10.2% of the active cases) and no additional ones for yesterday for a total of 51; 568 new cases for the week (+1), averaging 12.9% of active cases. 623 active cases, +25 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

5,021 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 4,451. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-20 (+0 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by eight days (-1).

Ontario reported 3,380 new cases today (including roughly 300 earlier cases for Hamilton and Niagara) with a seven-day average of 3,783 (-105). 4,517 recoveries and 24 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,061 active cases and a new total of 38,853. -4,064 active cases for the week and 199 deaths (28 per day). 50,194 tests for a positivity rate of 6.93%. The positivity rate is averaging 8.29% for the past seven days, compared to 8.19% for the preceding seven.

877 patients in ICU (+2 today, +87 for the week) and a total hospital population of 2,281 (-54 for the week).

116,173 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 110,760. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-11 (+0 days).

• 341 cases in Niagara: 76.1 per 100K
  
• 255 cases in Hamilton: 44.0 per 100K
  
• 589 cases in Peel: 42.6 per 100K
  
• 221 cases in Durham: 34.2 per 100K
  
• 133 cases in Middlesex-London: 32.9 per 100K
  
• 961 cases in Toronto: 32.8 per 100K
  
• 290 cases in York: 26.1 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Brant: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 116 cases in Halton: 21.2 per 100K
  
• 180 cases in Ottawa: 18.1 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 65 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Waterloo: 10.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 38 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.8 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Eastern Ontario: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Northwestern: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Lambton: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Sudbury: 2.8 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[LesPio]

Canada has released some models on how many vaccines we'll need until we can lift our restrictions around the country. According to their models, we'll need 75 percent of adults to have 1 shot and 20 percent to have 2 shots before we can return to what we would consider normal.

MacLeans has a story here: https://www.macleans.ca/news/what-new-co...trictions/
And the government has a PDF of the models here: https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-a...423-en.pdf

Projecting that by September everyone that wants a shot will have one. Assuming that 75% will be vaccinated by September.
30% of Canada's population is currently vaccinated.

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

[tomh009]

Projecting that by September everyone that wants a shot will have one. Assuming that 75% will be vaccinated by September.
30% of Canada's population is currently vaccinated.

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

75% ... will have both shots?

Almost 1% of the population is being vaccinated per day, so the first-shot percentage will reach 75% long before September?

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-04-29 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	901	65.2	827	59.9	-2%
Toronto	1,172	40.0	1,123	38.3	-9%
York	392	35.3	398	35.8	-8%
Durham	292	45.2	223	34.5	+6%
Niagara	104	23.2	153	34.2	-2%
Halton	129	23.5	136	24.8	-9%
Middlesex-London	101	25.0	100	24.7	+5%
Brant	19	14.0	34	24.7	-41%
Hamilton	103	17.8	139	24.0	+1%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	46	16.9	55	20.1	-30%
Ottawa	147	14.8	195	19.6	-23%
Simcoe-Muskoka	117	21.7	89	16.4	-6%
Windsor-Essex	52	13.4	54	13.8	-14%
Waterloo	63	10.2	84	13.5	-35%
Eastern Ontario	16	7.9	23	11.4	-47%
Northwestern	19	21.7	10	11.2	+19%
Southwestern Ontario	14	7.0	19	9.7	-23%
Lambton	16	12.2	10	7.7	+10%
Thunder Bay	10	6.7	8	5.6	-27%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	10	5.9	10	5.6	-18%
Kingston Frontenac	13	6.4	11	5.2	+11%
Huron Perth	5	5.1	4	4.4	+42%
Chatham-Kent	8	7.5	4	4.1	+61%
Sudbury		.0	9	2.3	-21%
Ontario total					-7%

[ac3r]

Ontario will be making the vaccine available to all adults 18+ May 24th: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.6006880

• Week of April 26: All Ontario adults age 55 and up; those 45 years old and up in hot spot communities; and licensed childcare workers.
  
• Week of May 3: Ontario adults over the age of 50; adults age 18 and up in hot spot communities' those with health conditions deemed "high risk"; and some people who cannot work from home.
  
• Week of May 10: Ontario adults over the age of 40, those with health conditions deemed "at risk"; and more individuals who cannot work from home.
  
• Week of May 17: Ontario adults over the age of 30.
  
• Week of May 24: Ontario adults over the age of 18.
  

More details available here in a provincial report: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documen...ril-29.pdf

[danbrotherston]

Ontario will be making the vaccine available to all adults 18+ May 24th: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.6006880

• Week of April 26: All Ontario adults age 55 and up; those 45 years old and up in hot spot communities; and licensed childcare workers.
  
• Week of May 3: Ontario adults over the age of 50; adults age 18 and up in hot spot communities' those with health conditions deemed "high risk"; and some people who cannot work from home.
  
• Week of May 10: Ontario adults over the age of 40, those with health conditions deemed "at risk"; and more individuals who cannot work from home.
  
• Week of May 17: Ontario adults over the age of 30.
  
• Week of May 24: Ontario adults over the age of 18.
  

More details available here in a provincial report: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documen...ril-29.pdf

Wow, that is really fantastic news!

This is the kind of transparency they were boasting about 3 months ago.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-04-29

Waterloo Region reported 62 new cases for today (10.0% of the active cases) and no additional ones for yesterday for a total of 68; 551 new cases for the week (-17), averaging 12.4% of active cases. 605 active cases, +13 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

5,145 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 4,410. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-21 (+1 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by eight days (+0).

Ontario reported 3,871 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,810 (+27). 4,245 recoveries and 41 deaths translated to a decrease of 415 active cases and a new total of 38,438. -3,524 active cases for the week and 200 deaths (29 per day). 56,939 tests for a positivity rate of 6.80%. The positivity rate is averaging 8.29% for the past seven days, compared to 8.13% for the preceding seven.

884 patients in ICU (+7 today, +78 for the week) and a total hospital population of 2,428 (+78 for the week).

120,567 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 108,710. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-13 (+1 days).

• 901 cases in Peel: 65.2 per 100K
  
• 292 cases in Durham: 45.2 per 100K
  
• 1,172 cases in Toronto: 40.0 per 100K
  
• 392 cases in York: 35.3 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Middlesex-London: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Halton: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Niagara: 23.2 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Northwestern: 21.7 per 100K
  
• 117 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 21.7 per 100K
  
• 103 cases in Hamilton: 17.8 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in Ottawa: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Brant: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.4 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Lambton: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Waterloo: 10.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Chatham-Kent: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[LesPio]

 COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker
https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

   

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-04-30

Waterloo Region reported 65 new cases for today (10.7% of the active cases) and one additional one for yesterday for a total of 63; 527 new cases for the week (-24), averaging 11.8% of active cases. 606 active cases, +1 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,144 tests per day for the past week, for a positivity rate of 6.58%, the same as the prior week.

4,953 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 4,411. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-21 (+0 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by six days (-2).

Ontario reported 3,887 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,722 (-88). 4,242 recoveries and 21 deaths translated to a decrease of 376 active cases and a new total of 38,062. -3,673 active cases for the week and 187 deaths (27 per day). 53,074 tests for a positivity rate of 7.32%. The positivity rate is averaging 8.19% for the past seven days, compared to 8.20% for the preceding seven -- the first time it's below the previous week for quite some time.

883 patients in ICU (-1 today, +65 for the week) and a total hospital population of 2,201 (-86 for the week).

112,214 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 105,616. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-14 (+1 days).

• 871 cases in Peel: 63.0 per 100K
  
• 1,331 cases in Toronto: 45.4 per 100K
  
• 204 cases in Hamilton: 35.2 per 100K
  
• 156 cases in Niagara: 34.8 per 100K
  
• 208 cases in Durham: 32.2 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Brant: 27.2 per 100K
  
• 267 cases in York: 24.1 per 100K
  
• 123 cases in Halton: 22.4 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in Middlesex-London: 21.0 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 196 cases in Ottawa: 19.7 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Northwestern: 13.7 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Eastern Ontario: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Waterloo: 7.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Sudbury: 2.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[ac3r]

The US will start exporting Pfizer vaccines to Canada next week, which should really help ramp up vaccine efforts. This will be particularly useful as they have a goal to open up vaccinations to every adult Canadian 18+ who would like one by the end of this month: https://www.680news.com/2021/04/30/pfize...oses-news/

[tomh009]

The US will start exporting Pfizer vaccines to Canada next week, which should really help ramp up vaccine efforts. This will be particularly useful as they have a goal to open up vaccinations to every adult Canadian 18+ who would like one by the end of this month: https://www.680news.com/2021/04/30/pfize...oses-news/

Interesting that they are exporting the BioNTech-Pfizer and not the AstraZeneca, given that they have a stockpile of the latter and yet can't use it. Unless they are earmarking the AZ for India and sending us the BioNTech instead.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-01 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	819	59.3	842	60.9	-7%
Toronto	1,050	35.8	1,129	38.5	-3%
York	286	25.8	374	33.7	-28%
Durham	157	24.3	212	32.9	-1%
Niagara	89	19.9	147	32.8	-20%
Hamilton	132	22.8	141	24.3	+23%
Middlesex-London	107	26.4	100	24.6	-1%
Halton	127	23.2	131	23.9	-6%
Brant	11	8.1	31	22.6	-52%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	42	15.4	52	19.0	-28%
Ottawa	158	15.9	193	19.4	-32%
Simcoe-Muskoka	71	13.1	82	15.1	-11%
Windsor-Essex	41	10.5	50	12.9	-18%
Waterloo	90	14.6	78	12.6	-32%
Eastern Ontario	21	10.4	25	12.3	-65%
Northwestern	7	8.0	10	11.7	-15%
Southwestern Ontario	17	8.5	18	9.2	-20%
Lambton	12	9.2	11	8.6	-27%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	16	9.4	9	5.5	-2%
Thunder Bay	5	3.3	7	4.9	-51%
Kingston Frontenac	9	4.4	10	5.0	+10%
Huron Perth	6	6.1	5	5.0	+34%
Chatham-Kent	3	2.8	5	4.3	-42%
Sudbury	19	4.9	10	2.7	-6%
Ontario total					-11%