The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

Only 1,006 doses of vaccine administered, after 261 doses yesterday -- are the regional supplies really that low? A seven-day average of 3,113. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-14 (+3 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 36 days (+4).

The Ontario 7-day average is 126k, and Waterloo Region is 4.2% of the Ontario population (617k of 14.57M). Ontario is allocating 50% on a per-capita basis (the other 50% to provincial hot spots), so we should have a 7-day average of 126,000 * 4.2% * 50% = 2,646 assuming we have no hot spots.

The Northdale/Lakeshore area is a provincial hot spot though, so that explains why our 7-day average is actually a little higher at 3,113. Also, we might be better than average at getting doses from freezers to arms, which is a factor in the provincial average.

In any case, our 7-day average seems right in line with the province, and maybe even a little better than average. The real change will be next week, when the province ends its hot spot-focused allocation and goes strictly per-capita. Then we should expect the regional 7-day average to be 5,292/day if we're matching the province's current pace (but of course hopefully the region is better than average, and the province as a whole picks up the pace).

[tomh009]

Your math works. So, why did we only vaccinate 0.2% of Ontario total on Sunday and 0.9% yesterday? Did the region use up too many vaccines during the past week?

At the moment the regional vaccination timeline is far behind the provincial one. We'll have to wait and see how much of that gets caught up.

[taylortbb]

Your math works. So, why did we only vaccinate 0.2% of Ontario total on Sunday and 0.9% yesterday? Did the region use up too many vaccines during the past week?

At the moment the regional vaccination timeline is far behind the provincial one. We'll have to wait and see how much of that gets caught up.

I do remember the region stating about a week ago that they were shifting from a more spread out administration model to one where they administer vaccines ASAP after receiving them, even if it means running out before the next batch arrived. I assume it was to test their delivery capacity, and make the argument for more supply. The region has an excellent new vaccine dashboard, https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...force.aspx , which says we have very few vaccines in freezers.

Ontario as a whole though is definitely vaccinating slower than they arrive. The Ontario vaccine gap seems to be growing and I don't know why, our percent administered is behind all the other large Canadian provinces.

I do think we'll be behind the provincial average. Hot spot cities will be ahead, due to their head start, and everywhere else will be behind. Unless they run in to the vaccine hesitancy wall first, and supply gets diverted here.

[tomh009]

Ontario as a whole though is definitely vaccinating slower than they arrive. The Ontario vaccine gap seems to be growing and I don't know why, our percent administered is behind all the other large Canadian provinces.

The gap has grown in the past week: while vaccinations have continued to slowly pick up the pace, the deliveries increased more quickly. I think they could have provided vaccines to all regions and still been able to vaccinate everyone at the hot spots.

Right now, there are almost 1.5M doses in inventory.

   

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-05-12

Waterloo Region reported 86 new cases for today (18.4% of the active cases) and three more for yesterday for 50; 447 new cases for the week (+67), averaging 12.5% of active cases. 493 active cases, -64 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

3,778 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 3,003. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-16 (+2 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 39 days (+3).

Ontario reported 2,320 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,826 (-88). 3,477 recoveries and 32 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,189 active cases and a new total of 29,962. -5,014 active cases for the week and 187 deaths (27 per day). 45,681 tests for a positivity rate of just 5.08%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.04% for the past seven days, compared to 7.80% for the preceding seven.

776 patients in ICU (-26 today, -106 for the week) and a total hospital population of 1,673 (-402 for the week).

140,785 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 127,420. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-08 (+0 day).

• 452 cases in Peel: 32.7 per 100K
  
• 712 cases in Toronto: 24.3 per 100K
  
• 139 cases in Durham: 21.5 per 100K
  
• 113 cases in Hamilton: 19.5 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Niagara: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Brant: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Middlesex-London: 19.0 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Huron Perth: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Halton: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 157 cases in York: 14.1 per 100K
  
• 81 cases in Waterloo: 13.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 105 cases in Ottawa: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Northwestern: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Windsor-Essex: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 9.0 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Thunder Bay: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.9 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-05-13 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	602	43.6	664	48.0	-24%
Toronto	774	26.4	825	28.2	-20%
Durham	147	22.8	161	24.9	-11%
York	258	23.2	268	24.1	-16%
Hamilton	133	23.0	126	21.7	-21%
Niagara	81	18.1	92	20.6	-20%
Middlesex-London	78	19.3	80	19.7	-22%
Halton	104	19.0	106	19.4	-21%
Brant	30	22.1	23	17.1	-17%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	44	16.2	38	13.8	+10%
Huron Perth	19	19.4	11	11.1	b
Ottawa	110	11.1	110	11.1	-16%
Simcoe-Muskoka	65	12.0	60	11.0	-20%
Waterloo	72	11.7	64	10.4	+29%
Windsor-Essex	54	13.9	40	10.3	+5%
Northwestern	6	6.8	7	8.2	-29%
Southwestern Ontario	16	8.0	16	8.0	+5%
Lambton	28	21.4	10	7.9	+20%
Kingston Frontenac	7	3.4	15	7.3	-58%
Eastern Ontario	18	8.9	13	6.6	-29%
Chatham-Kent	6	5.7	4	3.3	-8%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	2	1.2	5	2.8	-96%
Thunder Bay	1	.7	4	2.8	-47%
Sudbury	12	3.1	8	2.0	-1%
Ontario total					-17%

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-05-13

Waterloo Region reported 50 new cases for today (10.2% of the active cases) and two fewer for yesterday for 84; 441 new cases for the week (-6), averaging 12.5% of active cases. 498 active cases, -48 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

3,654 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 2,938. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-17 (+1 day). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 40 days (+1). Incidentally, an average of some 300 Waterloo Region residents are getting vaccinated outside the region each day, far more than the number of non-residents vaccinated here.

Ontario reported 2,759 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,731 (-95). 3,455 recoveries and 31 deaths translated to a decrease of 547 active cases and a new total of 29,235. -5,142 active cases for the week and 192 deaths (27 per day). 47,638 tests for a positivity rate of 5.79%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.96% for the past seven days, compared to 7.73% for the preceding seven. A solid drop in the positivity rate even though reduced testing should increase the positivity rate, all else remaining equal.

776 patients in ICU (+0 today, -101 for the week) and a total hospital population of 1,632 (-332 for the week).

137,697 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 126,943. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-08 (+0 day).

• 602 cases in Peel: 43.6 per 100K
  
• 774 cases in Toronto: 26.4 per 100K
  
• 258 cases in York: 23.2 per 100K
  
• 133 cases in Hamilton: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in Durham: 22.8 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Brant: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Lambton: 21.4 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Huron Perth: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Middlesex-London: 19.3 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Halton: 19.0 per 100K
  
• 81 cases in Niagara: 18.1 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.2 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.9 per 100K
  
• 65 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Waterloo: 11.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 110 cases in Ottawa: 11.1 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 8.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Northwestern: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Sudbury: 3.1 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

Yesterday's vaccination stats, thanks to the CBC.

The particularly encouraging thing here is the high vaccination rate for 70+ people, and even 60-69. This indicates very low levels of vaccine hesitancy, and improves my confidence in us being able to vaccinate ourselves to (at least some level of) normalcy.

   

[taylortbb]

That Waterloo +29% looked concerning, but according to https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.6025490 it's from data cleaning. Public health says case counts are still headed in the right direction locally.

[tomh009]

That Waterloo +29% looked concerning, but according to https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.6025490 it's from data cleaning. Public health says case counts are still headed in the right direction locally.

That's what I had guessed, too -- they recorded a slew of cases for (many!) prior months. It's amazing how they continue to "find" new cases for even last summer ...

[danbrotherston]

That Waterloo +29% looked concerning, but according to https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.6025490 it's from data cleaning. Public health says case counts are still headed in the right direction locally.

That's what I had guessed, too -- they recorded a slew of cases for (many!) prior months. It's amazing how they continue to "find" new cases for even last summer ...

I simply do not understand what is going on with their data collection.

Were these things lost in the mail or something?!

[ZEBuilder]

THURSDAY 2021-05-13

Ontario reported 2,759 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,731 (-95). 3,275 recoveries and 31 deaths translated to a decrease of 547 active cases and a new total of 29,415. -4,962 active cases for the week and 192 deaths (27 per day). 47,638 tests for a positivity rate of 5.79%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.96% for the past seven days, compared to 7.73% for the preceding seven. A solid drop in the positivity rate even though reduced testing should increase the positivity rate, all else remaining equal.

When I was looking at the data I noticed these are different to what is on the provincal website, today they have 3455 new recoveries listed instead of the 3275 that you have which means the decrease would be 727 instead of the 547 you have.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-05-13

Ontario reported 2,759 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,731 (-95). 3,275 recoveries and 31 deaths translated to a decrease of 547 active cases and a new total of 29,415. -4,962 active cases for the week and 192 deaths (27 per day). 47,638 tests for a positivity rate of 5.79%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.96% for the past seven days, compared to 7.73% for the preceding seven. A solid drop in the positivity rate even though reduced testing should increase the positivity rate, all else remaining equal.

When I was looking at the data I noticed these are different to what is on the provincal website, today they have 3455 new recoveries listed instead of the 3275 that you have which means the decrease would be 727 instead of the 547 you have.

Indeed, the site says 3,455! I could have sworn that it was 3,275 this morning ... nevertheless, I'll fix that now.

Edit: 'twas a slip of the fingers typing in the total resolved to date: 464,531 is correct, 464,351 is not! 

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-05-14

Waterloo Region reported 84 new cases for today (16.9% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for 49; 476 new cases for the week (+35), averaging 13.7% of active cases. 524 active cases, -11 in the last seven days.

An average of only 1,037 tests for the past week for a positivity rate of 6.56%.

3,776 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 2,844. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-07-19 (+2 days). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 42 days (+2). Next week should see better vaccine availability in the region, hopefully that will pick up the pace significantly as currently we are averaging only 2.2% of the provincial total, barely over half of what an even distribution would look like.

Ontario reported 2,362 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,616 (-115). 3,502 recoveries and 26 deaths translated to a decrease of 1,166 active cases and a new total of 28,069. -5,576 active cases for the week and 195 deaths (28 per day). 44,040 tests for a positivity rate of 5.36%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.85% for the past seven days, compared to 7.57% for the preceding seven.

777 patients in ICU (+1 today, -81 for the week) and a total hospital population of 1,582 (-342 for the week).

137,697 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 126,943. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-08 (+0 day).

• 563 cases in Peel: 40.7 per 100K
  
• 691 cases in Toronto: 23.6 per 100K
  
• 148 cases in Durham: 22.9 per 100K
  
• 224 cases in York: 20.2 per 100K
  
• 113 cases in Hamilton: 19.5 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Brant: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Middlesex-London: 16.3 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Halton: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Niagara: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 99 cases in Ottawa: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 55 cases in Waterloo: 8.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 18 cases in Eastern Ontario: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Chatham-Kent: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Northwestern: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.0 per 100K
  

[plam]

Have they published any data about B117 in Waterloo or did they just give up? Canada might have gotten unlucky compared to the US with respect to B117 spread...