The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

New analysis by PHE shows for the first time that 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization from the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vacci...ta-variant

The analysis suggests:

• the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalization after 2 doses
  
• the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalization after 2 doses
  

[jeffster]

Quick take for Ontario today:

2021-06-15: TOTAL ONTARIO 296
2021-06-15: Peel Public Health 62
2021-06-15: Toronto Public Health 60
2021-06-15: Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 45
2021-06-15: York Region Public Health 15
2021-06-15: Halton Region Public Health 13

Keep in mind, Tuesdays numbers tend to be lower than then the rest (though occasionally Wednesday can even be lower). What's more concerning is that the RoW is now over 15% of Ontario cases. Look at us compared to Toronto!

I think what the region needs to do is offer for clinics locally (that is, at community centres) on a full-time basis until vaccination rates go up significantly. The region also needs to send out flyers to each household, making people aware where one can get their shot.

Something, somehow, has gone in this region where we have become one of the worst, not only for Covid, but also vaccination rates and uptake.

[tomh009]

Something, somehow, has gone in this region where we have become one of the worst, not only for Covid, but also vaccination rates and uptake.

The province directed vaccines to the hotspots and Waterloo Region (among others) got short-changed. Then we got the Delta variant here, and the combination resulted in an increase of cases. This is by far the most likely scenario.

The regional vaccination rates are already up, Sunday was 5.5% of provincial total, about 40% higher than average. And I do not see any major issues with hesitancy in the region at this point (yes, there will be some groups but that is the case everywhere).

Mailers have been sent out before. Rushing out a new batch of mailers right now would likely take a week or two to arrive at people's homes. Add vaccination reservation delay and then a few weeks for it to have an impact, and you're looking at a month, an eternity in COVID terms.

[Coke6pk]

So I took my mom in for her second vaccination. You wouldn't believe who I ran into though, guiding people. Ken Seiling! He's still at it, and nice to see. I only spoke to him for a couple minutes. It was nice to see him out there.

Ken has been a volunteer like myself at The Boardwalk since day 1.  And while they ask for one shift a week, he is there more frequently!  Truly, a class act!

Coke

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100K

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 72.6
• Peel Public Health 34.9
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 28.0
• Niagara Region Public Health 25.4
• Brant County Health Unit 24.5
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 22.4
• Durham Region Health Department 22.2
• Toronto Public Health 21.8
• Halton Region Public Health 18.4
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 18.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 22.5

The Region of Waterloo continues its upward trajectory as the rest of the province plunges.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-06-15

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases for today (7.9% of the active cases) and 13 more for yesterday (shifted from Thursday for some reason) for 54; 432 new cases for the week (-11 from yesterday, +139 from last week), averaging 15.1% of active cases. 496 active cases, +140 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

7,096 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average at 7,229 (previous week was 6,580). 57.88% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.42% from yesterday, +3.67% from 7 days ago), 9.18% fully vaccinated (+0.72% from yesterday, +4.38% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 296 new cases today with a seven-day average of 479 (-24). 645 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a decrease of 362 active cases and a new total of 5,012 -- this is now eight weeks of monotonically decreasing active case counts. -2,366 active cases for the week and 87 deaths (12 per day). 17,162 tests with a positivity rate of 1.72%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.12% for the past seven days, compared to 2.77% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 678
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Gamma (P.1): 2
  

382 patients in ICU (-27 today, -99 for the week) and a total hospital population of 433 (-188 for the week).

184,989 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 180,002 (previous week was 157,571). 64.47% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.28% from yesterday, +2.69% from 7 days ago), 13.84% fully vaccinated (+0.97% from yesterday, +5.87% from 7 days ago).

• 45 cases in Waterloo: 7.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 62 cases in Peel: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Brant: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Halton: 2.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 60 cases in Toronto: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

[neonjoe]

Today's report has us firmly in #1 position not only by per capita but #1 overall.

According to Wednesday’s report, 71 cases were recorded in Waterloo, 60 in Peel Region, 54 in Toronto, 23 in Middlesex-London and 21 in Ottawa. Waterloo Region surpassed Toronto and Peel for the majority of cases within the count.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7954155/ontar...tification

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100K

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 78.7
• Peel Public Health 34.2
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 28.5
• Brant County Health Unit 26.4
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 25.8
• Niagara Region Public Health 24.6
• Peterborough Public Health 23.0
• Durham Region Health Department 21.8
• Toronto Public Health 20.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 19.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 22.4

As mentioned already, RoW is #1 not only in cases per 100K, but cases overall. We might actually hit #1 in all of Canada for cases today (Winnipeg has been creeping downward the past few weeks).

I was not impressed with Dr. Wang's comments yesterday, as it seemed she's blaming the general public for our poor numbers:

"When you mix that with people gathering and not really practising public health precautions you can have spread and spread that moves very quickly because it's Delta and the most transmissible we've had to date," said Dr. Wang.

No...that's not the main reason. The reason is because our PHU has done a shitty job at getting jabs in arms. They haven't gotten to certain segments of population. Even to this day, I have not received any vaccine information to my house, with the exception of a single flyer in a utility bill. We knows who's getting sick. We know who they are. Concentrate your efforts in that area. Advertise and introduce longer term vaccine clinics. K-W and Cambridge all have several community centres, pools (with large meeting rooms), arenas, etc. Start using those. No one wants to drive or take transit to The Boardwalk or Pinebush if transportation is difficult for them. Not everyone has access to a decent computer to try to hook up with a pharmacy, not does everyone have a family doctor.

But don't blame the public for this. This is 100% the leadership of this task force.

Also, by looking at the graph, we may actually be entering our own "Made in Waterloo Region" 4th wave.

We're now over 3x worse that Ontario average. Take RoW out of the Ontario average, and the province is closer to 20.

[ac3r]

[ijmorlan]

No...that's not the main reason. The reason is because our PHU has done a shitty job at getting jabs in arms. They haven't gotten to certain segments of population. Even to this day, I have not received any vaccine information to my house, with the exception of a single flyer in a utility bill. We knows who's getting sick. We know who they are. Concentrate your efforts in that area. Advertise and introduce longer term vaccine clinics. K-W and Cambridge all have several community centres, pools (with large meeting rooms), arenas, etc. Start using those. No one wants to drive or take transit to The Boardwalk or Pinebush if transportation is difficult for them. Not everyone has access to a decent computer to try to hook up with a pharmacy, not does everyone have a family doctor.

Step 1, perhaps: Do both injections and testing at the old bus terminal. There should be enough space and the location seems likely to be good for many of the populations we need to concentrate on including.

[jeffster]

No...that's not the main reason. The reason is because our PHU has done a shitty job at getting jabs in arms. They haven't gotten to certain segments of population. Even to this day, I have not received any vaccine information to my house, with the exception of a single flyer in a utility bill. We knows who's getting sick. We know who they are. Concentrate your efforts in that area. Advertise and introduce longer term vaccine clinics. K-W and Cambridge all have several community centres, pools (with large meeting rooms), arenas, etc. Start using those. No one wants to drive or take transit to The Boardwalk or Pinebush if transportation is difficult for them. Not everyone has access to a decent computer to try to hook up with a pharmacy, not does everyone have a family doctor.

Step 1, perhaps: Do both injections and testing at the old bus terminal. There should be enough space and the location seems likely to be good for many of the populations we need to concentrate on including.

That's a great idea. It's good too if they could use part of the building so walk-ups (and appointments) can get vaccinated as well, as there is plenty of parking and transit option in DTK.

[tomh009]

Step 1, perhaps: Do both injections and testing at the old bus terminal. There should be enough space and the location seems likely to be good for many of the populations we need to concentrate on including.

The bus terminal is not much more than a five minutes' walk from the pharmacy building. Do we really need two downtown sites so close together? Over 8,300 vaccinations done today alone. The region has only about 19,000 doses in inventory so it's not as if we could double the pace, even if we had more sites -- and more people to staff those sites.

[jeffster]

Step 1, perhaps: Do both injections and testing at the old bus terminal. There should be enough space and the location seems likely to be good for many of the populations we need to concentrate on including.

The bus terminal is not much more than a five minutes' walk from the pharmacy building. Do we really need two downtown sites so close together? Over 8,300 vaccinations done today alone. The region has only about 19,000 doses in inventory so it's not as if we could double the pace, even if we had more sites -- and more people to staff those sites.

To be honest, how does one get an appointment at that pharmacy? I never heard of it before, not has anyone at work. Is this a RoW clinic? Or is it run by the university? Are these students who are injecting people? Perhaps the old terminal may have been a better option.

Still, I believe we need more sites. 1 in Kitchener doesn't seem to be enough for a city of 275,000.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-06-16

Waterloo Region reported 69 new cases for today (13.8% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 40; 447 new cases for the week (+15 from yesterday, +128 from last week), averaging 14.8% of active cases. 506 active cases, +150 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

8,308 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 7,354 (previous week was 6,731). 58.33% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.45% from yesterday, +3.41% from 7 days ago), 10.05% fully vaccinated (+0.87% from yesterday, +4.73% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 384 new cases today with a seven-day average of 475 (-4). 722 recoveries and 12 deaths translated to a decrease of 350 active cases and a new total of 4,662 -- below 5,000 for the first time since September last year. -2,162 active cases for the week and 66 deaths (nine per day).  28,076 tests with a positivity rate of 1.37%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.13% for the past seven days, compared to 2.64% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 488
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 4
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 54
  
• Gamma (P.1): 19
  

377 patients in ICU (-5 today, -89 for the week) and a total hospital population of 438 (-133 for the week).

202,984 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 183,642 (previous week was 157,571). 64.75% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.28% from yesterday, +2.51% from 7 days ago), 14.94% fully vaccinated (+1.10% from yesterday, +6.22% from 7 days ago).

• 71 cases in Waterloo: 11.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 23 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 60 cases in Peel: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Niagara: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Brant: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Durham: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Ottawa: 2.1 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Hamilton: 2.1 per 100K