The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 77.1
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 40.4
• Porcupine Health Unit 20.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 15.4
• Peterborough Public Health 12.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 11.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 11.6
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 10.4
• Peel Public Health 7.9
• Southwestern Public Health 7.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 7.7

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-07-14

Waterloo Region reported 20 new cases for today (6.9% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 28; 227 new cases for the week (+29 from yesterday and -39 from last week), averaging 10.5% of active cases. 268 active cases, -48 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

7,582 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 9,301 (previous week was 8,494). 65.51% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.15% from yesterday, +1.14% from 7 days ago), 44.01% fully vaccinated (+1.11% from yesterday, +9.40% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 153 new cases today with a seven-day average of 164 (-6). 216 recoveries and seven deaths translated to a decrease of 70 active cases and a new total of 1,488. -363 active cases for the week and 41 deaths (six per day). 29,085 tests with a positivity rate of just 0.53%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.74% for the past seven days, compared to 1.04% for the preceding seven. 133 patients in ICU (-12 today, -30 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 10
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 16
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 305 (44% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 74
  

179,197 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 192,782 (previous week was 197,863). 69.24% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.92% from 7 days ago), 49.48% fully vaccinated (+1.08% from yesterday, +8.25% from 7 days ago).

• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Peel: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Toronto: 1.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 81.8
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 35.8
• Porcupine Health Unit 22.8
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 14.1
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 10.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 10.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 9.8
• Southwestern Public Health 9.0
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 8.5
• Lambton Public Health 7.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 7.3

Region of Waterloo is finally into the old "Orange" zone. Grey Bruce continues to struggle though.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-07-15

Waterloo Region reported 24 new cases for today (9.0% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 20; 196 new cases for the week (-31 from yesterday and -81 from last week), averaging 9.3% of active cases. 249 active cases, -79 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

6,539 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,921 (previous week was 8,441). 65.64% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +1.11% from 7 days ago), 44.95% fully vaccinated (+0.94% from yesterday, +9.01% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 143 new cases today with a seven-day average of 155 (-9). 168 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a decrease of 35 active cases and a new total of 1,453. -373 active cases for the week and 47 deaths (seven per day). 31,329 tests with a positivity rate of just 0.46%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.69% for the past seven days, compared to 1.00% for the preceding seven. 130 patients in ICU (-3 today, -28 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 7
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 1
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 79 (46% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 16
  

166,201 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 178,113 (previous week was 198,034). 69.37% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.88% from 7 days ago), 50.48% fully vaccinated (+1.00% from yesterday, +7.59% from 7 days ago).

• 25 cases in Waterloo: 4.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 7 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.6 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Chatham-Kent: 1.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Hamilton: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Halton: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[Bjays93]

I'll be honest initially I was frustrated with how long ontario was waiting to lift restrictions given our high vaccine uptake. I'm becoming increasingly glad about our slow approach as our cases continue to decline as elsewhere covid seems to be surging again. 

Increase in cases in every single state, country's in asia that have done well all along, Vietnam, korea, Japan are surging as are places like Indonesia and Malaysia. Even Australia is starting to crack. Surges throughout europe. Beginning to be much less critical of their slow approach. However seeing surges in places like the UK and even case count growth in isreal, where there are a significant number of vaccinated people, I find that worrying

[ac3r]

Cases are going up, but the key metric to keep an eye on is hospitalizations (acute care and ICU) and deaths. With so many people vaccinated, rising cases should not be that big of a concern as it once was so long as people are not overwhelming hospitals. We can only keep doing this close, reopen, close, reopen thing going for so long before we start to do even greater disastrous damage to things like economics, education, trust in governance and healthcare as well as our own sanity.

[plam]

Cases are going up, but the key metric to keep an eye on is hospitalizations (acute care and ICU) and deaths. With so many people vaccinated, rising cases should not be that big of a concern as it once was so long as people are not overwhelming hospitals.

Feels to me like people say this every time and then the hospitalization rates invariably climb 4 weeks later as people get sicker, recalling that it's mostly unvaccinated people getting it and they still follow the same natural laws as every other time before.

[danbrotherston]

Cases are going up, but the key metric to keep an eye on is hospitalizations (acute care and ICU) and deaths. With so many people vaccinated, rising cases should not be that big of a concern as it once was so long as people are not overwhelming hospitals.

Feels to me like people say this every time and then the hospitalization rates invariably climb 4 weeks later as people get sicker, recalling that it's mostly unvaccinated people getting it and they still follow the same natural laws as every other time before.

This!

[tomh009]

I'll be honest initially I was frustrated with how long ontario was waiting to lift restrictions given our high vaccine uptake. I'm becoming increasingly glad about our slow approach as our cases continue to decline as elsewhere covid seems to be surging again. 

Increase in cases in every single state, country's in asia that have done well all along, Vietnam, korea, Japan are surging as are places like Indonesia and Malaysia. Even Australia is starting to crack. Surges throughout europe. Beginning to be much less critical of their slow approach. However seeing surges in places like the UK and even case count growth in isreal, where there are a significant number of vaccinated people, I find that worrying

Yes ... look at UK or Netherlands (or the US!) where the vaccination rates aren't all that much different from ours. The case rates are surging (and, yes, hospitalizations will follow, even if at a lower rate than before) as they have thrown the doors wide open, and people have going back to "normal life". There were over 1,000 cases in the Netherlands from a single outdoor festival ...

Here we have a fairly organized Step 1/2/3 (I think Doug Ford finally let the healthcare professionals plan this out) and mask usage is quite high. Vaccination rates are still going up, and our case rates are still steadily dropping. I'm feeling pretty good about how we are doing things here at the moment (not to say that there couldn't be improvements, though).

My main concern is what will come after Step 3. I really, really hope we will not be back to a total unrestricted situation. I would prefer that we stay at Step 3 until maybe the end of August, and then do a Step 4, with some further loosening of restrictions, but still with capacity limits, distancing and masks.

We have the pandemic pinned down on the mat now, let's not let go too quickly.

[Bjays93]

Cases are going up, but the key metric to keep an eye on is hospitalizations (acute care and ICU) and deaths. With so many people vaccinated, rising cases should not be that big of a concern as it once was so long as people are not overwhelming hospitals. We can only keep doing this close, reopen, close, reopen thing going for so long before we start to do even greater disastrous damage to things like economics, education, trust in governance and healthcare as well as our own sanity.

I did say this pretty much a week ago when tom was mentioning the cases in Britain. Unfortunately it appears hospitalizations and ICU admissions are continuing to rise significantly. I also agree wholeheartedly that this open close open close cycle cant go on forever. There has to be some other plan but I dont know what the answer is at this point.

[tomh009]

Cases are going up, but the key metric to keep an eye on is hospitalizations (acute care and ICU) and deaths. With so many people vaccinated, rising cases should not be that big of a concern as it once was so long as people are not overwhelming hospitals. We can only keep doing this close, reopen, close, reopen thing going for so long before we start to do even greater disastrous damage to things like economics, education, trust in governance and healthcare as well as our own sanity.

I did say this pretty much a week ago when tom was mentioning the cases in Britain. Unfortunately it appears hospitalizations and ICU admissions are continuing to rise significantly. I also agree wholeheartedly that this open close open close cycle cant go on forever. There has to be some other plan but I dont know what the answer is at this point.

I think the question is, what measures are we, as a society, willing to accept for the long term, in order to keep this under control? (And, yes, that answer is likely very different for us and for our neighbours to the south.)

[jeffster]

Yes ... look at UK or Netherlands (or the US!) where the vaccination rates aren't all that much different from ours. The case rates are surging (and, yes, hospitalizations will follow, even if at a lower rate than before) as they have thrown the doors wide open, and people have going back to "normal life". There were over 1,000 cases in the Netherlands from a single outdoor festival ...

My main concern is what will come after Step 3. I really, really hope we will not be back to a total unrestricted situation. I would prefer that we stay at Step 3 until maybe the end of August, and then do a Step 4, with some further loosening of restrictions, but still with capacity limits, distancing and masks.

We have the pandemic pinned down on the mat now, let's not let go too quickly.

I actually read up on the Netherland festival, but you left out a lot of context: 1) Attendees must have shown proof of 1 of 3 things, linked to a QR code: vaccination, negative test, or prior covid infection. I can't find any comments regarding a previous infection, but: attendees could have had a single vaccination within hours before going to festival. Everyone knows you can get sick if you're not fully vaccinated. Further, a negative covid test was permissible even if it was 40 hours out (as was the case here).

The other thing is that they don't know that all, or even the majority, of cases came from the outdoor festival itself.

“We cannot say that all these people were infected at the festival itself; it could also be possible that they’ve been infected while travelling to the festival or in the evening before going to the festival or having an after-party. So they’re (the cases) all linked to the festival but we can’t 100% say they were infected at the festival,” Lennart van Trigt, a spokesman for the Utrecht health board, or GGD, said.

Bold is mine, but I bet they were all partying like it was 1999.

There is not step 4, but you're right that we can't be totally back to normal anytime soon.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 87.7
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 31.5
• Porcupine Health Unit 20.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 14.7
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 11.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 11.6
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 10.8
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 9.5
• Southwestern Public Health 8.0
• Huron Perth Public Health 7.9

• TOTAL ONTARIO 7.1

[ac3r]

I'd be reluctant to blame the festival itself. Earlier this year the UK did a fairly big experiment by holding fairly large events (indoors no less). Something like 50'000 people attended a series sports and entertainment events. At one event, which was an electronic music festival, you didn't even need masks or distancing (!). All people required was a negative test before and then a few after, since they wanted to collect data on how well vaccines were working. In the end they only found 15 cases linked to all of this.

Edit: It was actually 60'000, so to only confirm 15 cases is impressive: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-19-just-...00086.html

At this point, I'm ready to live normally again. I want to be able to attend stuff like this. I miss music, art shows, theatre, conventions etc. If people don't want to get vaccinated, that's on them (obviously I don't mean children and people who, for medical reasons, cannot be vaccinated).

[danbrotherston]

I did say this pretty much a week ago when tom was mentioning the cases in Britain. Unfortunately it appears hospitalizations and ICU admissions are continuing to rise significantly. I also agree wholeheartedly that this open close open close cycle cant go on forever. There has to be some other plan but I dont know what the answer is at this point.

I think the question is, what measures are we, as a society, willing to accept for the long term, in order to keep this under control? (And, yes, that answer is likely very different for us and for our neighbours to the south.)

I think the only things that are needed to control it will be masking and mass vaccination.

This is easy, trivial to achieve, yet there is a significant segment of the population throwing an absolute on the floor screaming like a toddler tantrum about it.

So possibly we cannot achieve it. Ultimately, I'm not sure what the answer will be, but at a certain point, we have to get somewhere, and the biggest threat is the hospital system. Perhaps, people who refuse to vaccinate shouldn't get a bed when they get sick.