The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-08-25

Waterloo Region reported 16 new cases for today (11.3% of the active cases) and zero additional for yesterday for 13; 126 new cases for the week (+3 from yesterday and +3 from last week), averaging 12.6% of active cases. 146 active cases, +8 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,417 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,541 (previous week was 1,833). 73.32% of the total regional population has been vaccinated (+0.08% from yesterday) and 66.99% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday).

Ontario reported 660 new cases today with a seven-day average of 625 (+25), compared to 496 a week ago. 572 recoveries and one death translated to an increase of 87 active cases and a new total of 5,140. +1,210 active cases for the week and 10 deaths. 26,406 tests with a positivity rate of 2.50%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.65% for the past seven days, compared to 2.39% for the preceding seven.

130 people in the ICU, +5 from yesterday and +30 over the last week. Total hospital population is 283, +107 over the past seven days.

40,254 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 38,708 (previous week was 42,396). 73.01% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.10% from yesterday, +0.60% from 7 days ago), 66.71% fully vaccinated (+0.18% from yesterday, +1.21% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 86 cases in Hamilton: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Windsor-Essex: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Chatham-Kent: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in York: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 151 cases in Toronto: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Sudbury: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Peel: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Halton: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Durham: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Brant: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Ottawa: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Waterloo: 2.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Niagara: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Eastern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[ijmorlan]

Might convince some, but I suspect a lot of them will go ahead and "move the goalpost" as that argument no longer has weight.

And yes, I am aware that the FDA has nothing to do with us up north as Health Canada handles it up here. Not sure if they are still under the interim approval up here or not.

I think the number of people for whom “it’s not fully approved” was a good-faith concern is miniscule. Certainly, in the US, the main reason to be opposed to the vaccine is to “own the libs”, so there will always be some BS justification.

That being said, if full approval means more mandates can go ahead, it may make a big difference that way. It may even allow people to climb down from their idiocy: “I didn’t want to get it, but I had to for work”. The important thing is that nobody ever has to admit they were wrong

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 85.7
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 78.7
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 43.3
• York Region Public Health 41.6
• Brant County Health Unit 37.4
• Peel Public Health 35.1
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 31.0
• Toronto Public Health 30.6
• Durham Region Health Department 26.1
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 24.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 21.0

• Algoma Public Health 10.5
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 9.1
• Porcupine Health Unit 7.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.2
• Northwestern Health Unit 4.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 3.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 3.1
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 1.3
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 29.4

I think I had mentioned much earlier that Middlesex-London and Hamilton would have poor Covid-19 numbers due to poor rollout by their PHU's. It's really starting to show.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 93.9
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 79.0
• York Region Public Health 44.5
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 43.0
• Peel Public Health 37.5
• Brant County Health Unit 33.5
• Toronto Public Health 31.5
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 31.0
• Durham Region Health Department 29.2
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 25.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 20.7

• Algoma Public Health 10.5
• Northwestern Health Unit 9.1
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 7.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 6.2
• Porcupine Health Unit 6.0
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.2
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 5.2
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 2.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 30.4

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-08-26

Waterloo Region reported 25 new cases for today (17.1% of the active cases) and zero additional for yesterday for 16; 131 new cases for the week (+5 from yesterday and +3 from last week), averaging 13.0% of active cases. 154 active cases, +15 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,420 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,489 (previous week was 1,772). 73.41% of the total regional population has been vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday) and 67.15% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday).

Ontario reported 678 new cases today with a seven-day average of 646 (+21), compared to 497 a week ago. 513 recoveries and no deaths translated to an increase of 165 active cases and a new total of 5,305. +1,062 active cases and eight deaths for the week. 27,815 tests with a positivity rate of 2.44%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.71% for the past seven days, compared to 2.36% for the preceding seven.

134 people in the ICU, +4 from yesterday and +32 over the past week. Total hospital population is 302, +126 over the past seven days.

38,932 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 37,763 (previous week was 41,879). 73.10% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday, +0.59% from 7 days ago), 66.88% fully vaccinated (+0.17% from yesterday, +1.18% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 78 cases in Windsor-Essex: 20.1 per 100K
  
• 97 cases in York: 8.7 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Hamilton: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Durham: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 102 cases in Peel: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 144 cases in Toronto: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Niagara: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Waterloo: 2.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Halton: 1.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Sudbury: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Lambton: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Ottawa: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Grey Bruce: 1.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

I know a few pages back we were discussing mandatory vaccinations for federal employees, etc. I was able to find this buried in a different area of the Canada dot ca website.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-nati...ation.html

It's under the department of national defence, though it does mention "all federal employees".

COVID-19: The Government of Canada has announced intent to require vaccination for federal public servants as well as CAF members

In light of the announcement made Friday, August 13, 2021, the Government of Canada intends to require COVID-19 vaccinations  for federal public service employees and Canadian Armed Forces members. For those few who are unable to be vaccinated, accommodation or alternative measures may be determined in each situation, to protect broader public health by reducing the risk of COVID-19.  As further details unfold, they will be communicated.

All Defence Team members are to continue respecting local public health measures, including mask wearing, physical distancing, and frequent hand washing.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 96.0
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 80.9
• York Region Public Health 46.9
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 41.0
• Peel Public Health 36.5
• Brant County Health Unit 34.1
• Toronto Public Health 33.1
• Durham Region Health Department 31.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 29.2
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 27.2

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 20.9

• Algoma Public Health 8.7
• Northwestern Health Unit 8.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 7.2
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 6.9
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 6.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.2
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 4.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 2.0
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 31.3

[tomh009]

I know a few pages back we were discussing mandatory vaccinations for federal employees, etc. I was able to find this buried in a different area of the Canada dot ca website.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-nati...ation.html

It's under the department of national defence, though it does mention "all federal employees".

COVID-19: The Government of Canada has announced intent to require vaccination for federal public servants as well as CAF members

In light of the announcement made Friday, August 13, 2021, the Government of Canada intends to require COVID-19 vaccinations  for federal public service employees and Canadian Armed Forces members. For those few who are unable to be vaccinated, accommodation or alternative measures may be determined in each situation, to protect broader public health by reducing the risk of COVID-19.  As further details unfold, they will be communicated.

All Defence Team members are to continue respecting local public health measures, including mask wearing, physical distancing, and frequent hand washing.

It does say "unable", though, rather than "unwilling".

[tomh009]

Projecting that by September everyone that wants a shot will have one. Assuming that 75% will be vaccinated by September.
30% of Canada's population is currently vaccinated.

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

75% ... will have both shots?

Almost 1% of the population is being vaccinated per day, so the first-shot percentage will reach 75% long before September?

Revisiting an old post, from four months ago. It's looks like we'll hit about 73.5% by the end of August, which is not bad, but certainly not as good as I guessed back then. I clearly didn't anticipate the slowdown in the vaccine uptake as we got into July and August, Hopefully the combination of the outreach efforts and vaccine mandates will help pick the pace up a bit. And once we have a vaccine approved for the 5-11 age group, that will give us another significant bump.

[jeffster]

I know a few pages back we were discussing mandatory vaccinations for federal employees, etc. I was able to find this buried in a different area of the Canada dot ca website.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-nati...ation.html

It's under the department of national defence, though it does mention "all federal employees".

It does say "unable", though, rather than "unwilling".

unable = unwilling -- it simply means it's not absolutely mandatory. Anyone 'unwilling' will fall under 'unable', even as far as some bringing up informed consent.

More on informed consent is located here: https://www.cmpa-acpm.ca/en/covid19/vacc...#question6

To be clear, I am not anti-vax, and my entire family is vaccinated. What I am saying is that the federal government is being disingenuous when it comes to this mandatory vaccine for their workers.

No matter what we do, we're going to have a lot of unvaccinated people, even if their reason for not being vaccinated is not legit. I think it might also mean we need to come up with a more robust vaccine, one with a better efficacy. But I think those with 2 shots already might not want a 3rd shot.

[ijmorlan]

unable = unwilling -- it simply means it's not absolutely mandatory. Anyone 'unwilling' will fall under 'unable', even as far as some bringing up informed consent.

Not a lawyer here, but at plain language “unable” is very different from “unwilling”. “Unable” means medical counterindication, period, or unable to get to a vaccination location (which shouldn’t be an issue in this country). It’s also reasonable, in principle, to grant cultural objections (to a specific vaccine, not to vaccination in general), but I don’t think there are any (anybody know of a counter example?).

“Unwilling” means the mandate isn’t a mandate, the thing that is supposedly “required” isn’t, etc.

The informed consent discussion on the linked page sounds to me like it’s going way too far in the direction of “some people might be vaccinated, some not, whatever, you just have to deal with that”. It’s not really an individual choice in the first place. Doctors should be able to require their patients to be vaccinated (subject to the exemptions discussed above), or find another doctor. Don’t like it? Tough, it’s not the only rule we all have to follow.

I don’t want to go back to the more authoritarian governing style that used to be almost universal, but it did have some advantages: everybody understood that everybody just has to do certain things and that individuals don’t really get to have their complaints (or whining, as it might be, in the case of vaccinations) heard.

[tomh009]

unable = unwilling -- it simply means it's not absolutely mandatory. Anyone 'unwilling' will fall under 'unable', even as far as some bringing up informed consent.

Not a lawyer here, but at plain language “unable” is very different from “unwilling”. “Unable” means medical counterindication, period, or unable to get to a vaccination location (which shouldn’t be an issue in this country). It’s also reasonable, in principle, to grant cultural objections (to a specific vaccine, not to vaccination in general), but I don’t think there are any (anybody know of a counter example?).

“Unwilling” means the mandate isn’t a mandate, the thing that is supposedly “required” isn’t, etc.

Exactly. From that original DND page that jeffster linked to:

What will be the career ramifications for any CAF member who refuses the COVID-19 vaccine?
In light of the announcement made Friday, August 13, 2021, the Government of Canada intends to require COVID-19 vaccinations for federal public service employees and Canadian Armed Forces members. As further details unfold, they will be communicated to all Defence Team members.

I'd say it's pretty clear that you do not get an option to refuse, with no consequences.

[jeffster]

Not a lawyer here, but at plain language “unable” is very different from “unwilling”. “Unable” means medical counterindication, period, or unable to get to a vaccination location (which shouldn’t be an issue in this country). It’s also reasonable, in principle, to grant cultural objections (to a specific vaccine, not to vaccination in general), but I don’t think there are any (anybody know of a counter example?).

“Unwilling” means the mandate isn’t a mandate, the thing that is supposedly “required” isn’t, etc.

Exactly. From that original DND page that jeffster linked to:

What will be the career ramifications for any CAF member who refuses the COVID-19 vaccine?
In light of the announcement made Friday, August 13, 2021, the Government of Canada intends to require COVID-19 vaccinations for federal public service employees and Canadian Armed Forces members. As further details unfold, they will be communicated to all Defence Team members.

I'd say it's pretty clear that you do not get an option to refuse, with no consequences.

But you left out the second sentence: “For those few who are unable to be vaccinated, accommodation or alternative measures may be determined in each situation, to protect broader public health by reducing the risk of COVID-19.”

Mandatory but not mandatory. I am not sure of what valid reasons for being unable. Might be health. Unlikely it’s religious. Some might view this as a charter violation. And being that the current crop of vaccines aren’t all that effective at preventing getting covid, preventing illness, and just ‘good’ at preventing hospitalizations, you will likely have a large number of people claiming that the vaccine isn’t effective enough when measured against any risk, especially for the younger crowd.

Here’s an example: Ranitidine, also known as Zantac, was a heartburn medication discovered in 1976, approved for use in 1981, then pulled from shelves 39 years later, because it is carcinogenic. 39 years is a long time before a drug is pulled, but here we are.

Again, while I am not anti-vax, I do understand how some would be hesitant to take a relatively new style of vaccine (mRNA). And it is true we don’t know the long term effects of these types of vaccines, especially on the young (hence why it’s still not approve for 6m to 11yrs).

Now, if this vaccine was 90%+ effective we could achieve herd immunity, and it wasn’t long ago that this is what PHAC, governments and other agencies were claiming. Now we know this isn’t true. Were we lied to? I don’t know. I will say that I am disappointed with the ever changing goalposts of the PHAC, etc. But the fact that we might need boosters now, and even at that, we could still get sick and die? I am starting to understand why some won’t get vaccinated.

Even now, fully vaccinated people can get each other sick. That’s not what anyone signed up for when we got our first shot.

[tomh009]

The keyword is still “unable”, not “unwilling “.

[ac3r]

According to CBC News, the province will finally be mandating a vaccine passport system: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.6156343

Far too late, but this is par for the course with the Ontario Conservative Party: say no, test the waters, say no again, then finally do the right thing. This should hopefully help boost vaccine numbers (as do the recent announcements regarding semi-mandatory vaccination [or daily testing] for education workers, health care workers etc). I will also enjoy seeing the Covidiot tears as they become second class citizens. I am sick and tired of them holding the rest of us hostage. Time for them to stay home so the rest of us can live life. They can LARP and cry on Facebook about living in a tyrannical Communist dictatorship all they want, it's about time the majority of the country gets to return to normal life.