The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

According to CBC News, the province will finally be mandating a vaccine passport system: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.6156343

Far too late, but this is par for the course with the Ontario Conservative Party: say no, test the waters, say no again, then finally do the right thing. This should hopefully help boost vaccine numbers (as do the recent announcements regarding semi-mandatory vaccination [or daily testing] for education workers, health care workers etc). I will also enjoy seeing the Covidiot tears as they become second class citizens. I am sick and tired of them holding the rest of us hostage. Time for them to stay home so the rest of us can live life. They can LARP and cry on Facebook about living in a tyrannical Communist dictatorship all they want, it's about time the majority of the country gets to return to normal life.

I really hope that it does help. Maybe a wake up call for some who haven’t clued in. But you’re still going to get businesses that are a free to all, vaccine passports be damned. I also wish this was a nationwide system. How exactly does this work when travelling from one province to another (ones with passports) and how does this work from provinces without passports? A national system would have streamlined everything.

[plam]

Just a note on vaccine efficacy. This time last year we didn't even know that we would have vaccines and were hoping for a vaccine with 50% efficacy. Also, the early super-high numbers are probably not reflective of long-term performance even when boosted, because they include lots of antibodies that just won't stay around.

Still, the vaccines are extraordinarily effective at preventing death and the worst consequences from COVID. It remains that you don't want COVID, even when vaccinated, and it is still worse than the flu, but it's much less risky than before. But we will still need some non-pharmaceutical interventions, at least until we discover an actual cure.

Even with a 90% of population vaccinated we're likely to still have reasonably-large outbreaks. Not among the population as a whole, but starting with unvaccinated subpopulations.

Jacinda Ardern refuses to set a numerical target for vaccination: she wants all groups to have reasonable vaccine coverage before saying that NZ is safer. Also, I was talking to a physiotherapist from Alberta who made it to NZ, and he was unfamiliar with how hard the NZ lockdown actually is. We get takeaways on Wednesday, after two weeks, if all goes well...

[tomh009]

According to CBC News, the province will finally be mandating a vaccine passport system: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.6156343

There is no official announcement yet, so we're understandably lacking detail, but the news article talked about creating the vaccine passport system. The big question is what will require the passport (by provincial legislation), and where is it the decision of the individual business or other organization to require it for entry.

But even for the latter scenarios, having a clear passport will make it far easier for a business to set a vaccine-only rule and enforce it.

Let's see what we end up with. It's far later than it should be, as you say, but maybe not too late yet to avoid a massive fourth wave on the scale of Florida and Georgia.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-08-27

Waterloo Region reported 24 new cases for today (15.5% of the active cases) and one additional for yesterday for 26; 133 new cases for the week (+2 from yesterday and +8 from last week), averaging 13.0% of active cases. 164 active cases, +21 in the last seven days.

An average of only 649 tests/day for the past seven days, resulting in a positivity rate of 2.93%, up substantially from last week's 1.69%, given that the testing was down over 40%.

1,410 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 1,449 (previous week was 1,673). 73.48% of the total regional population has been vaccinated (+0.07% from yesterday) and 67.32% fully vaccinated (+0.17% from yesterday).

Ontario reported 781 new cases today with a seven-day average of 665 (+19), compared to 518 a week ago. 625 recoveries and three (new) deaths translated to an increase of 139 active cases and a new total of 5,444. +997 active cases and nine deaths for the week. 30,063 tests with a positivity rate of 2.60%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.76% for the past seven days, compared to 2.37% for the preceding seven.

128 people in the ICU, -6 from yesterday and +23 over the past week. Total hospital population is 306, +109 over the past seven days.

36,195 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 36,398 (previous week was 41,460). 73.19% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday, +0.59% from 7 days ago), 67.04% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.14% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 67 cases in Windsor-Essex: 17.2 per 100K
  
• 66 cases in Hamilton: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in York: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.2 per 100K
  
• 96 cases in Peel: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 185 cases in Toronto: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Durham: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Niagara: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Brant: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Waterloo: 4.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Ottawa: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Halton: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Thunder Bay: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.0 per 100K
  

[ijmorlan]

But you left out the second sentence: “For those few who are unable to be vaccinated, accommodation or alternative measures may be determined in each situation, to protect broader public health by reducing the risk of COVID-19.”

Mandatory but not mandatory.  I am not sure of what valid reasons for being unable. Might be health. Unlikely it’s religious. Some might view this as a charter violation. And being that the current crop of vaccines aren’t all that effective at preventing getting covid, preventing illness, and just ‘good’ at preventing hospitalizations, you will likely have a large number of people claiming that the vaccine isn’t effective enough when measured against any risk, especially for the younger crowd.

Yes, health! I’m a bit unclear on the frequency of people with counterindications in the population, but my understanding is it’s typically non-zero. Also in principle cultural (sometimes called religious), but in practice I don’t believe that applies to these vaccines.

If they really mean “unable” with health as the only exemption, then I think it’s fair to call it mandatory.

If “unable” includes any sort of personal choice (beyond the choice to have a doctor and listen to their recommendations), then I agree it’s not mandatory.

Speculation about long-term bad effects should not be entertained unless the medical community has reason to believe there is a problem. There are enough doctors and researchers out there that if there was a serious possibility of long-term side effects (e.g., cancer 30 years from now), then somebody would have raised the concern.

The analogy I draw is to baking: if I experiment with a cake recipe by changing the ingredients and proportions, I might make a bad cake, but I don’t have to worry about blowing up the house. Similarly, not based on my expertise but if I understand correctly this is what an expert would say, mRNA vaccines might be of varying efficacy and might have certain potential side effects, but cancer 30 years from now is not something we need to worry about.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 101.0
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 84.4
• York Region Public Health 48.2
• Brant County Health Unit 38.0
• Peel Public Health 37.7
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 37.0
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 34.8
• Toronto Public Health 34.3
• Durham Region Health Department 32.4
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 29.8

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 21.9

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 10.0
• Algoma Public Health 8.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 6.9
• Northwestern Health Unit 6.8
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 6.2
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 4.7
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 4.0
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 3.8
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 32.3

Unsure if jurisdictions might 'shut down' again, but Windsor isn't looking too good right now.

Now, I am hoping we can get our vaccine passport sooner, being that Ford *FINALLY* decided that this was OK, despite not wanting to upset the anti-vax crowd. And I am hoping most types of businesses start enforcing prohibited entry of unvaccinated individuals.

As for the Region of Waterloo PHU, and other PHU's, they really need to concentrate on areas that are under-vaccinated, but not anti-vax. I still run into people that have no idea how to get the vaccine. I still believe that community centres could be used for this, as they are usually in low vaccinated areas.

As for anti-vax, I'm convinced that these ones won't get vaccinated. But hopefully we can avoid another lockdown simply by not allowing these folks to go anywhere.

[tomh009]

As for the Region of Waterloo PHU, and other PHU's, they really need to concentrate on areas that are under-vaccinated, but not anti-vax. I still run into people that have no idea how to get the vaccine. I still believe that community centres could be used for this, as they are usually in low vaccinated areas.

This is indeed being done, with vaccinations at pop-ups, on buses etc. And the number of daily first shots has stabilized at a somewhat higher level.

Apart from community centres, we need to get the rest of the young people to take action: 18-29s, for example, are at only 74.5% first shot, when 50-59s are at 84.1%. 18-29s are generally Internet-savvy and generally mobile so there should be few excuses for having a 10% lower vaccination rate than their 30-years-older peer group. But a vaccine passport requirement for bars and restaurants might make a big difference with this group ...

[jeffster]

But a vaccine passport requirement for bars and restaurants might make a big difference with this group ...

For sure it would. Even for entry into retail establishments.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-08-28 (posting this every Saturday).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	62	15.9	57	14.7	+26%
Hamilton	90	15.5	67	11.6	+21%
Middlesex-London	32	7.9	30	7.4	-18%
York	102	9.2	80	7.2	+39%
Brant	21	15.4	9	6.7	+17%
Peel	114	8.2	88	6.3	+17%
Durham	44	6.8	32	5.0	+35%
Toronto	168	5.7	145	5.0	+26%
Chatham-Kent	8	7.5	5	4.6	+62%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	18	6.6	12	4.3	+89%
Simcoe-Muskoka	27	5.0	23	4.2	+25%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	3	3.5	-31%
Halton	12	2.2	19	3.4	-33%
Niagara	16	3.6	15	3.3	+5%
Waterloo	29	4.7	19	3.1	+12%
Eastern Ontario	11	5.4	5	2.6	+452%
Ottawa	35	3.5	23	2.4	+43%
Southwestern Ontario	11	5.5	5	2.3	+47%
Lambton	3	2.3	3	1.9	-5%
Grey Bruce	4	2.5	3	1.8	-49%
Sudbury	5	1.3	4	1.1	+59%
Northwestern		.0	1	1.0	+26%
Ontario total					+22%

22% weekly trend (at the provincial level) seems to be moderate enough (it has averaged 27% over the past two weeks) that maybe we can get the vaccine passports in place before things get completely out of hand.

[tomh009]

But a vaccine passport requirement for bars and restaurants might make a big difference with this group ...

For sure it would. Even for entry into retail establishments.

Maybe some retail. But stores selling essentials will surely not be able to require that, even anti-vaxers have to be able to eat.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-08-28

Waterloo Region reported 27 new cases for today (16.3% of the active cases) and zero additional for yesterday for 24; 143 new cases for the week (+10 from yesterday and +18 from last week), averaging 13.6% of active cases. 172 active cases, +25 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 835 new cases today with a seven-day average of 686 (+21), compared to 534 a week ago. 575 recoveries and one (new) death translated to an increase of 253 active cases and a new total of 5,697. +1,037 active cases and nine deaths for the week. 28,528 tests with a positivity rate of 2.93%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.80% for the past seven days, compared to 2.40% for the preceding seven.

132 people in the ICU, +4 from yesterday and +29 over the past week. Total hospital population is 343, +131 over the past seven days.

37,716 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 35,125 (previous week was 40,929). 73.28% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday, +0.58% from 7 days ago), 67.20% fully vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.09% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 62 cases in Windsor-Essex: 15.9 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Hamilton: 15.5 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Brant: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 102 cases in York: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in Peel: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Chatham-Kent: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Durham: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in Toronto: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Eastern Ontario: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Waterloo: 4.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Niagara: 3.6 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Ottawa: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Grey Bruce: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Sudbury: 1.3 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.0 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

For sure it would. Even for entry into retail establishments.

Maybe some retail. But stores selling essentials will surely not be able to require that, even anti-vaxers have to be able to eat.

Anti-vaxxers can do curbside pickup or delivery.

I'm very done with them.

[ijmorlan]

Maybe some retail. But stores selling essentials will surely not be able to require that, even anti-vaxers have to be able to eat.

Anti-vaxxers can do curbside pickup or delivery.

I'm very done with them.

Or open their own store where there is no vaccination requirement, or even a must-not-be-vaccinated requirement. The further they are from me, the better.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 101.5
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 85.3
• York Region Public Health 47.6
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 39.5
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 38.2
• Brant County Health Unit 38.0
• Peel Public Health 34.5
• Toronto Public Health 33.4
• Durham Region Health Department 31.6
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 31.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 22.9

• Porcupine Health Unit 9.6
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 7.9
• Algoma Public Health 7.9
• Northwestern Health Unit 6.8
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.8
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 4.7
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 4.6
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 4.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 1.8
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 32.4

[tomh009]

Maybe some retail. But stores selling essentials will surely not be able to require that, even anti-vaxers have to be able to eat.

Anti-vaxxers can do curbside pickup or delivery.

I'm very done with them.

Sorry, what I was thinking (and what I should have written) was that surely the government will not require vaccine passports from grocery store customers. Some stores, however, may indeed choose to do so.