The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

No indication Omicron causes more severe disease than Delta: WHO https://t.co/ujgAfuFclt

Even if it was less severe, it's probably still bad, because bigger number (of infections) times smaller percentage of effects is often still worse than smaller number times bigger number, at the ranges we're looking at here.

Vaccine efficacy against infection probably takes a noticeable hit, against hospitalization still pretty good, and boosters are likely to help, according to the experts.

Pfizer is indeed recommending at least 3 doses of their vaccine to protect against this variant: https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/statu...4892643328

[danbrotherston]

No indication Omicron causes more severe disease than Delta: WHO https://t.co/ujgAfuFclt

Even if it was less severe, it's probably still bad, because bigger number (of infections) times smaller percentage of effects is often still worse than smaller number times bigger number, at the ranges we're looking at here.

Vaccine efficacy against infection probably takes a noticeable hit, against hospitalization still pretty good, and boosters are likely to help, according to the experts.

I mean, this isn't true, it depends entirely on the magnitude of numbers here. The flu is way less common than a cold, but way bigger of a problem.

Still COVID is orders of magnitude worse than a flu, if this variant made it orders of magnitude better, it would still be as bad as the flu, which is bad, and with increased transmissibility, it will be bad.

FWIW...there's also early indications it may hit children much harder. Which is not at all what I wanted to hear.

[plam]

Even if it was less severe, it's probably still bad, because bigger number (of infections) times smaller percentage of effects is often still worse than smaller number times bigger number, at the ranges we're looking at here.

Vaccine efficacy against infection probably takes a noticeable hit, against hospitalization still pretty good, and boosters are likely to help, according to the experts.

Pfizer is indeed recommending at least 3 doses of their vaccine to protect against this variant: https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/statu...4892643328

I mean, they're just a little self interested too, so I always take their word with a large grain of salt. Others who I believe more are also saying it though.

Even if it was less severe, it's probably still bad, because bigger number (of infections) times smaller percentage of effects is often still worse than smaller number times bigger number, at the ranges we're looking at here.

Vaccine efficacy against infection probably takes a noticeable hit, against hospitalization still pretty good, and boosters are likely to help, according to the experts.

I mean, this isn't true, it depends entirely on the magnitude of numbers here. The flu is way less common than a cold, but way bigger of a problem.

Still COVID is orders of magnitude worse than a flu, if this variant made it orders of magnitude better, it would still be as bad as the flu, which is bad, and with increased transmissibility, it will be bad.

FWIW...there's also early indications it may hit children much harder. Which is not at all what I wanted to hear.

That's why I said "at the ranges we're looking at". Yes, the cold is mild enough that it doesn't cause wide societal problems. But the range of badness we're likely to see with any variant of COVID is going to be such that wider spread is going to be a big problem.

The data on children I may also not completely believe; there are indications that parents are being super cautious.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Algoma Public Health 180.0
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 148.2
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 136.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 109.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 109.1
• Timiskaming Health Unit 101.0
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 100.2
• Southwestern Public Health 91.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 87.4
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 84.2

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 43.0

• Toronto Public Health 31.0
• Durham Region Health Department 30.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 30.0
• Peterborough Public Health 29.1
• Peel Public Health 26.8
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 26.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 22.2
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 20.8
• Northwestern Health Unit 18.2
• Porcupine Health Unit 6.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 47.4

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 196.5
• Algoma Public Health 153.8
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 147.2
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 132.6
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 120.0
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 99.4
• Timiskaming Health Unit 97.9
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 95.6
• Brant County Health Unit 93.4
• Southwestern Public Health 91.7

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 47.7

• York Region Public Health 40.2
• Durham Region Health Department 40.0
• Toronto Public Health 35.8
• Peterborough Public Health 32.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 29.3
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 28.8
• Peel Public Health 28.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 20.6
• Northwestern Health Unit 17.1
• Porcupine Health Unit 12.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 52.5

[jeffster]

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 238.3
• Algoma Public Health 138.1
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 137.2
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 130.6
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 127.0
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 99.1
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 99.1
• Timiskaming Health Unit 97.9
• Brant County Health Unit 96.6
• Southwestern Public Health 93.1

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 50.1

• Durham Region Health Department 43.8
• York Region Public Health 43.6
• Toronto Public Health 39.3
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 31.8
• Peel Public Health 31.1
• Peterborough Public Health 30.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 28.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 27.7
• Porcupine Health Unit 24.0
• Northwestern Health Unit 18.2

• TOTAL ONTARIO 56.2

[jeffster]

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 276.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 148.7
• Algoma Public Health 142.4
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 129.5
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 114.8
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 96.7
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 96.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 94.8
• Brant County Health Unit 91.5
• Southwestern Public Health 84.6

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 56.1

• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 46.9
• York Region Public Health 42.4
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 42.2
• Toronto Public Health 41.7
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 35.3
• Peel Public Health 32.1
• Peterborough Public Health 28.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 27.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 27.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 26.4
• Northwestern Health Unit 18.2

• TOTAL ONTARIO 58.2

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 323.9
• Algoma Public Health 145.9
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 140.7
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 139.1
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 131.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 114.5
• Timiskaming Health Unit 104.0
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 96.6
• Brant County Health Unit 94.1
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 90.7

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 59.6

• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 45.5
• Toronto Public Health 45.4
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 42.4
• Porcupine Health Unit 34.8
• Peel Public Health 33.9
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 30.8
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 30.2
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 27.6
• Peterborough Public Health 26.4
• Northwestern Health Unit 22.8

• TOTAL ONTARIO 62.6

[jeffster]

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 347.4
• Algoma Public Health 146.8
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 140.1
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 139.3
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 123.4
• Timiskaming Health Unit 119.3
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 116.6
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 104.5
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 96.6
• Brant County Health Unit 95.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 60.4

• Peel Public Health 37.3
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 37.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 36.0
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 31.6
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 29.5
• Peterborough Public Health 27.7
• Northwestern Health Unit 25.1

• TOTAL ONTARIO 65.9

[Bjays93]

Omicron bout to better us

[jeffster]

Omicron bout to better us

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one. Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 378.0
• Algoma Public Health 150.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 145.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 138.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 137.7
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 122.6
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 119.3
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 107.4
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 101.9
• Brant County Health Unit 94.1

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 67.3

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 48.3
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 45.5
• Porcupine Health Unit 44.3
• Peel Public Health 42.5
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 41.3
• Northwestern Health Unit 39.9
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 38.1
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 33.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 32.4
• Peterborough Public Health 25.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 71.3

[danbrotherston]

Omicron bout to better us

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

[Bjays93]

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Vaccines are ineffective though. Look no farther than the Calgary flames where literally everyone on their team is currently sick and was either double or triple vaxxed. 

I'm not sold on how mild it is yet, but one thing that we don't need studies to confirm is that the vaccines are not super effect again this variant at least when it comes to preventing illness. Hospitalization remains largely unknown and South Africa is not a good case study due to their vaccination rate. 

Pfizer did however come out and say 2 shots are only 30% effective against preventing omicron infection, which anecdotally still seems high.

[plam]

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

Not yet known that it's mild. It's still too early to tell. Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations. Because we're in a situation where most people are vaccinated or previously-infected, we don't know how nasty it would be without that protection.

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

+1

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Vaccines are ineffective though. Look no farther than the Calgary flames where literally everyone on their team is currently sick and was either double or triple vaxxed. 

Ineffective vs infection, effective vs hospitalization. But you still don't want it.