The COVID-19 pandemic

[Bjays93]

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

Not yet known that it's mild. It's still too early to tell. Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations. Because we're in a situation where most people are vaccinated or previously-infected, we don't know how nasty it would be without that protection.

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

+1

Vaccines are ineffective though. Look no farther than the Calgary flames where literally everyone on their team is currently sick and was either double or triple vaxxed. 

Ineffective vs infection, effective vs hospitalization. But you still don't want it.

Firstly jeffster said exactly what you did. Ineffective at preventing illness,  effective against hospitalization. 

Secondly are you accusing me of being anti vax or against getting the covid vaccine? because that's how I interpreted that, and that would be a baseless accusation.

[plam]

Firstly jeffster said exactly what you did. Ineffective at preventing illness,  effective against hospitalization. 

Secondly are you accusing me of being anti vax or against getting the covid vaccine? because that's how I interpreted that, and that would be a baseless accusation.

That was not my intent. You don't want COVID, even if it were Omicron and even if Omicron was more mild (which I would not bet on).

[Bjays93]

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Also if we really want to get into this then I wanna highlight a few things. 

Firstly jeffster said this is a mild variant, by all accounts

He's not saying the variant is mild, he's saying based on the accounts so far they're saying it's mild. This is something you explicitly agreed with in your response. 

the preliminary data showing could be mild (aka you also agree the early data is suggesting it may be more mild)

He then says the vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations which plam has the numbers to back up in his post. 

Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations

I dont see how these two statements are any different. One is just citing the actual numbers the other is basing their statement on. 

Lastly jeffster highlights 

They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

The argument here, is quite clearly that omicron is so much more infectious and that so many more people will be getting sick (as jeffster also establishes in his post) that even if they are much more effective at preventing hospitalizations we could still undoubtedly have a problem due to the massive amounts of people getting sick, which is again the same sentiment you echo while rebutting him. 

but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

You are both essentially saying the same thing, and jeffster is encouraging people to get their boosters. 

---

Not yet known that it's mild. It's still too early to tell. Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations. Because we're in a situation where most people are vaccinated or previously-infected, we don't know how nasty it would be without that protection.

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

+1

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

Also what is this being based on? Boosters start monday but by all accounts they remain for people who are 6 months fully vaxxed not 3 which is currently the official recommendation by a multitude of people. 

Lastly if we really want to get into how I feel about all this rather than throwing around baseless accusations.

Edited: I misinterpreted and I am sorry for that

When it comes to omicron, there are a plethora of people saying it's mild, but I think all of us here know that:

A. Its likely too early to truly determine this

B. If the variant is as infectious as it appears to be, being more mild could very easily not be enough to offset the rapid rise in cases (again we all understand this so I don't think the rationale behind this needs to be explained)

C. It is very clear the existing two dose regime is largely ineffective at preventing breakthrough cases and spread. There is both ample anecdotal evidence and some empirical data to start backing this up. It is probably a little early to draw conclusions on just how effective vaccines are at preventing hospitalization with omicron, especially given how poor of a case study south Africa is due to their vax rate. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator meaning while the current data is promising it may be too early to tell. I am also skeptical of what Pfizer as a company is saying becasue of course they are going to be pushing for 3rd and even 4th doses. They're making money off vaccines of course they'll be pushing what's profitable from them. The overall effectiveness of a 3 dose regimen remains to be seen, especially since we have already seen breakthrough cases in people who have 3 doses. 

I am not optimistic, but I will wait before drawing any conclusions until we have more info to that end. 

Bottom line, omicron is serious, possibly more so than any other point in the pandemic so far. The rate of spread is unprecedented even if it is more mild and the effectiveness of vaccines is greatly reduced for preventing infection and largely remains to be seen in other areas. Masks and testing remain a critical tool to help slow covid spread and keep people safe, and funding to healthcare should be a priority as lockdowns (something I have been staunchly in favour of) are not a viable long term strategy. 

Feel free to tell me how I'm wrong about all of this.

[Bjays93]

Firstly jeffster said exactly what you did. Ineffective at preventing illness,  effective against hospitalization. 

Secondly are you accusing me of being anti vax or against getting the covid vaccine? because that's how I interpreted that, and that would be a baseless accusation.

That was not my intent. You don't want COVID, even if it were Omicron and even if Omicron was more mild (which I would not bet on).

Apologies for completely misinterpreting what you said. I completely agree that you still do not want to get omicron. Long term effects also remain very unknown.

[tomh009]

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

In theory, yes. But they just opened booster shot registration to the 50+ crowd on Monday, and most people seem to have appointments 2-3 weeks out.

So, if it's wide open now, that's great, but they are not going to suddenly have appointments for everyone within the next month. And I'm quite sure the issue here is not vaccine availability but the availability of jabbers to jab the jabbees.

[plam]

Bottom line, omicron is serious, possibly more so than any other point in the pandemic so far. The rate of spread is unprecedented even if it is more mild and the effectiveness of vaccines is greatly reduced for preventing infection and largely remains to be seen in other areas. Masks and testing remain a critical tool to help slow covid spread and keep people safe, and funding to healthcare should be a priority as lockdowns (something I have been staunchly in favour of) are not a viable long term strategy. 

Feel free to tell me how I'm wrong about all of this.

I think you're pretty right on.

I would disagree about the effectiveness of boosters. I have always been skeptical of what the Pfizer CEO says. As you point out, he is very invested in selling vaccines to the world. However, the estimate is that the booster is going to be, if I recall correctly, back to 70% effective vs infection. And there are lab results (eg antibody tests) that support good efficacy numbers.

How many boosters are we going to need? I don't know. No one knows. We'll see. Clearly if we need boosters every year that may be a problem. But non-mRNA nasal spray vaccines might help.

By the way it's 84 days now. So I can get my 3rd dose on January 24...

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

In theory, yes. But they just opened booster shot registration to the 50+ crowd on Monday, and most people seem to have appointments 2-3 weeks out.

So, if it's wide open now, that's great, but they are not going to suddenly have appointments for everyone within the next month. And I'm quite sure the issue here is not vaccine availability but the availability of jabbers to jab the jabbees.

Those of us who are good at working the system will get our vaccine quickly. Those of us who are less good, won't. Inequity, here we are.

Quebec has explicitly said "not enough vaccinators". I don't know if Ontario has said that. But it's clearly true.

[danbrotherston]

Bottom line, omicron is serious, possibly more so than any other point in the pandemic so far. The rate of spread is unprecedented even if it is more mild and the effectiveness of vaccines is greatly reduced for preventing infection and largely remains to be seen in other areas. Masks and testing remain a critical tool to help slow covid spread and keep people safe, and funding to healthcare should be a priority as lockdowns (something I have been staunchly in favour of) are not a viable long term strategy. 

Feel free to tell me how I'm wrong about all of this.

I think you're pretty right on.

I would disagree about the effectiveness of boosters. I have always been skeptical of what the Pfizer CEO says. As you point out, he is very invested in selling vaccines to the world. However, the estimate is that the booster is going to be, if I recall correctly, back to 70% effective vs infection. And there are lab results (eg antibody tests) that support good efficacy numbers.

How many boosters are we going to need? I don't know. No one knows. We'll see. Clearly if we need boosters every year that may be a problem. But non-mRNA nasal spray vaccines might help.

By the way it's 84 days now. So I can get my 3rd dose on January 24...

In theory, yes. But they just opened booster shot registration to the 50+ crowd on Monday, and most people seem to have appointments 2-3 weeks out.

So, if it's wide open now, that's great, but they are not going to suddenly have appointments for everyone within the next month. And I'm quite sure the issue here is not vaccine availability but the availability of jabbers to jab the jabbees.

Those of us who are good at working the system will get our vaccine quickly. Those of us who are less good, won't. Inequity, here we are.

Quebec has explicitly said "not enough vaccinators". I don't know if Ontario has said that. But it's clearly true.

I thought they changed the six months to three?

[Spokes]

I've always been curious, how are the boosters going to be effective against omicron if the boosters were rolled out before we knew about omicron.

Pfizer CEO said we'd need a 4th shot to combat omicron. That seems more realistic as it would be made specifically for omicron. Wouldn't it? Granted. Not a scientist over here.

[ac3r]

Anyone 18 an older will be eligible to get a booster starting Monday: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-expan...-1.5708047

[robdrimmie]

I thought they changed the six months to three?

The use of "months" in both cases is an approximation. The number of days is fewer than the number of months, and they are rounding up.

It wasn't exactly 6 months previously either:

https://news.ontario.ca/en/backgrounder/...r-progress

Appointments will be booked for approximately six months (168 days) after a second dose.

And it isn't exactly 3 months now:

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/10013...h-interval

Appointments will be booked three months (84 days) after a second dose

[plam]

I've always been curious, how are the boosters going to be effective against omicron if the boosters were rolled out before we knew about omicron.

Pfizer CEO said we'd need a 4th shot to combat omicron. That seems more realistic as it would be made specifically for omicron. Wouldn't it?  Granted. Not a scientist over here.

Omicron is still close enough to the original strain that if there are enough antibodies, they'll neutralize it. Boosters increase the number and breadth of antibodies.

Immunology is super complicated and antibodies aren't the whole story. Looks like B and T cells are still good vs hospitalization but don't help as much vs infection.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 421.2
• Algoma Public Health 156.4
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 142.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 140.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 140.1
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 123.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 119.6
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 115.5
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 102.6
• Southwestern Public Health 89.8

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 76.3

• Toronto Public Health 64.4
• Porcupine Health Unit 50.3
• Northwestern Health Unit 47.9
• Peel Public Health 47.6
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 47.4
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 40.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 39.2
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 30.1
• Peterborough Public Health 27.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 23.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 78.9

[jeffster]

I've always been curious, how are the boosters going to be effective against omicron if the boosters were rolled out before we knew about omicron.

Pfizer CEO said we'd need a 4th shot to combat omicron. That seems more realistic as it would be made specifically for omicron. Wouldn't it?  Granted. Not a scientist over here.

I'd be putting my money on boosters every 3-6 months indefinitely. At least until they come up with a proper vaccine. These vaccines we have don't prevent Covid-19 at all, they're 0% effective against it, they're 0% effective at preventing spread -- they simply reduce your risk of ill, whatever level that might be, and they help prevent hospitalizations. That's it, nothing more, nothing less.

In the meantime, in order to stop spread, people need to stop mingling with one another. No family functions, no gatherings at peoples houses (like friends), and perhaps closing down change rooms in places like arenas.

What I don't see is another lock-down. Just better measures in place for social distancing and hygiene practices.

[taylortbb]

These vaccines we have don't prevent Covid-19 at all, they're 0% effective against it, they're 0% effective at preventing spread -- they simply reduce your risk of ill, whatever level that might be, and they help prevent hospitalizations. That's it, nothing more, nothing less.

This is factually incorrect.

[ijmorlan]

These vaccines we have don't prevent Covid-19 at all, they're 0% effective against it, they're 0% effective at preventing spread -- they simply reduce your risk of ill, whatever level that might be, and they help prevent hospitalizations. That's it, nothing more, nothing less.

This is factually incorrect.

It’s weird to see somebody using numbers in a statement that is so vague in its connection to reality.

I mean it would be one thing for somebody to say that the vaccine doesn’t prevent Covid spread and isn’t effective; but I think there is a responsibility when using numbers to make sure the statement isn’t 100% inaccurate.