(08-18-2015, 09:17 AM)chutten Wrote: Is it an understood maxim that economic growth #measured by GDP, I presume?# is tied to population growth? It would seem to me that rising wages, or rising efficiency #increased automation#, or lower cost of debt #spurring an increase in expenditures# would also move that number up#
That being said, I'm not sure economic growth should be the only goal# I would be okay with stagnant GDP #in #url=https://en#wikipedia#org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_%28economics%29#real#/url# terms, to keep this statement slightly less controversial# if it meant an increase in the social safety net, better ecological protection, and all those other hard-to-measure non-monetary factors in standard of living# With those at acceptable levels, we can then reach out and help other nations#
Yes, GDP is GENERALLY (not always) associated with population growth. Why?
A) More people = more people with jobs or at least looking for work. More workers = more wages = more GDP, usually
B) Demographics. This one has bitten Japan in the arse. As one's population declines and ages, the amount of workers supporting non-workers decreases. If one has a young population, one doesn't have as many health and retiree costs (say 7 workers to support 1 retiree). With an older population, you get less workers paying for more health and retiree costs (say 3 workers to support 1 retiree)
Canada has been horrible for efficiency, one of the alternate growth avenues you mention. Mexico and the US are killing us in terms of relative efficiency. Look at automotive plant investment over the past 5 years and it makes you wonder if Canada will become like Australia (no cars manufactured there at all).
Our cost of debt (interest rates) is at historic lows. That leaves that out as an avenue for growth. To finance a larger social safety net, where does the additional revenue come from as our population ages?
For the intermodal hub, the question remains: where will the money come from? A private developer? If so, what is in it for them? How do we attract such a partner without being gouged a la the 407 (as an extreme example)