ION - Waterloo Region's Light Rail Transit

[numberguy]

My optimism for the LRT is being tempered these days by two factors:
Bombardier's failure to deliver on time for the (much larger) TTC contract
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bo...-1.3125560

And the fact that this will be a P3 project. A recent Infrastructure Ontario call said that the P3 project ongoing costs post-implementation have been sky high. As in, if you're expecting 1.5%-2% increased costs (excluding electricity, that's a whole can of other worms), they've been experiencing 8%-9% annual increases.

[Canard]

Err... yeah.  I resisted posting any links to the recent stories in Toronto with Byford going up to Thunder Bay, because I don't want to push or expose any more of the knee-jerk reactions that some of the Toronto councillors are pushing for (no future orders for Bombardier).

I wouldn't put any weight on it.  FLEXITY Outlook is a different beast from Freedom, and the design is still being finalized on Freedom (our trains).  All of the problems with the first few vehicles were resolved months ago, and now it's just a case of catching up with where they should be in the manufacturing queue.

I have no idea what you're saying about the P3 thing, I don't understand your sentence I'm afraid.

Columbia is coming along:

   

[timio]

June 30 is the tentative date for Park Street to close for up to 3 weeks.

I'm curious what the detours will be. Belmont or Strange seem to be the likely options at this point.

[Canard]

Park St? Why is park closing?

[Waterlooer]

Park St? Why is park closing?

I think they have to raise the railway that crosses park by a bit. Not sure though.

[Canard]

Oh wow, that makes sense looking at a map. I forgot how close that is to the King rework. I wonder how this will affect GO's layover facility?

[Drake]

Oh wow, that makes sense looking at a map. I forgot how close that is to the King rework. I wonder how this will affect GO's layover facility?

Hopefully this will also stop tractor trailers from getting stuck under that crossing.

[Canard]

The bridge is for the spur; I doubt the elevation of it is changing. I would imagine it's the crossing at the back end of the GO Layover facility that is having work done (near the Home Hardware).

Horrible Google URL

[timio]

If I had a guess, I would think that they're re-configuring the entrance to the GO layover to go in from the west rather than the east while working on the grade separation.

[numberguy]

I have no idea what you're saying about the P3 thing, I don't understand your sentence I'm afraid.

I'm afraid as well. P3 is 2-3 times more expensive than going it alone.

[mpd618]

I'm afraid as well.  P3 is 2-3 times more expensive than going it alone.

Citation needed. There is certainly a higher cost due to higher borrowing rates and the risk transfer, but, well, there is also the risk transfer. What aspect of this project could be 2-3 times cheaper?

[numberguy]

I'm afraid as well.  P3 is 2-3 times more expensive than going it alone.

Citation needed. There is certainly a higher cost due to higher borrowing rates and the risk transfer, but, well, there is also the risk transfer. What aspect of this project could be 2-3 times cheaper?

Can't cite due to NDA.

Built in escalation rates.   Infrastructure Ontario is looking at a number of P3 agreements.   A number of very large P3 projects are experiencing escalation rates 2-3 times more expensive than CPI.  

So the private partner running the say, maintenance, experiences a 2% increase in a year.   The escalation rate in the agreement turns that 2% increase into a 6% increase that is passed onto the public partner.    This is real and has happened and is costing taxpayers on multiple levels huge.

Basically, the cash strapped province of Ontario is backstopping risk free ventures and a number of private capital firms are profiting quite handsomely from poorly designed contracts. The escalation/inflation formulas are generating risk free alpha for the private partners. All alpha, no beta.

[timio]

At least 5-6 crews working along Caroline and the spur this morning.

Some work just north of Allen. They've finished burying the cables beneath the road and looked to be moving dirt around.

Still working at William/Caroline for services above the sewers. There were water pipes on a trailer near the work area that weren't there yesterday.

Duct bank is finished across Caroline at Alexandra and encased in concrete.

Concrete sewer/storm sewer pipes are going in at Fr. David Bauer.

Storm sewer connection to the Laurel Creek Culvert is connected to the rest of the infrastructure down the road.

Still working on the embankment at Laurel Creek in Waterloo Park.

As Markster said, there's still a large number of concrete things sitting on the surface waiting to be buried. Many of them seem to be access hatches - you can see the rungs for the built-in ladders.

[plam]

Citation needed. There is certainly a higher cost due to higher borrowing rates and the risk transfer, but, well, there is also the risk transfer. What aspect of this project could be 2-3 times cheaper?

Can't cite due to NDA.

Built in escalation rates.   Infrastructure Ontario is looking at a number of P3 agreements.   A number of very large P3 projects are experiencing escalation rates 2-3 times more expensive than CPI.  

So the private partner running the say, maintenance, experiences a 2% increase in a year.   The escalation rate in the agreement turns that 2% increase into a 6% increase that is passed onto the public partner.    This is real and has happened and is costing taxpayers on multiple levels huge.

Basically, the cash strapped province of Ontario is backstopping risk free ventures and a number of private capital firms are profiting quite handsomely from poorly designed contracts.    The escalation/inflation formulas are generating risk free alpha for the private partners.   All alpha, no beta.

Auditor General of Ontario's 2014 report talks about some of the shortfalls of Infrastructure Ontario, mostly related to inadequate risk transfer, but not anything about operating costs:

http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/reports_en/en14/305en14.pdf

The operating costs for our LRT are small in comparison to the capital costs, but 6% increases add up quickly. From the FAQ (http://rapidtransit.regionofwaterloo.ca/...stions.asp):

GrandLinq's annual operations and maintenance cost for 30 years includes: 

 

• Operations ($4 million, plus HST and inflation);
  
• Maintenance ($4.5 million, plus HST and inflation);
  
• Lifecycle (average $8.7 million, plus HST and inflation);
  
• Financing ($11 million, plus HST);
  
• Insurance ($1.7 million, plus applicable taxes).
  

[tomh009]

I'm afraid as well.  P3 is 2-3 times more expensive than going it alone.

This seems to say the costs of P3 are 2-3x those of non-P3.

Built in escalation rates.   Infrastructure Ontario is looking at a number of P3 agreements.   A number of very large P3 projects are experiencing escalation rates 2-3 times more expensive than CPI.  

So the private partner running the say, maintenance, experiences a 2% increase in a year.   The escalation rate in the agreement turns that 2% increase into a 6% increase that is passed onto the public partner.    This is real and has happened and is costing taxpayers on multiple levels huge.

But in fact the claim seems to be that the annual cost increases could be 2-3x those of a non-P3 arrangement.  Total P3 costs will not be 2-3x total non-P3 costs, based on this.  But I should think that every P3 contract would be different -- and no one was forced to sign one of these agreements.

I don't pretend to have any idea as to whether P3 is a good thing or not.  But let's at least be precise when comparing costs.