The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Ontario daily averages in the last seven days:

• 12.0% increase in deaths
  
• 9.4% increase in recovered patients
  
• 7.0% increase in total cases
  
• 4.6% increase in active cases
  
• 4.0% increase in hospitalized cases
  
• 0.5% increase in ICU cases
  

The death rate increase appears to be largely driven by the infections at long-term homes. The stability in the number of hospital beds and (especially) ICU beds is a very positive indicator.

[panamaniac]

Ontario daily averages in the last seven days:

• 12.0% increase in deaths
  
• 9.4% increase in recovered patients
  
• 7.0% increase in total cases
  
• 4.6% increase in active cases
  
• 4.0% increase in hospitalized cases
  
• 0.5% increase in ICU cases
  

The death rate increase appears to be largely driven by the infections at long-term homes. The stability in the number of hospital beds and (especially) ICU beds is a very positive indicator.

Any indications of deaths/recoveries in ICU?  To the extent that is is about saving the healthcare system, particularly ICUs, from being overwhelmed, this seems to represent considerably success, so far.

[tomh009]

If nothing else comes out of all this, our society MUST improve living conditions for our non-indepent seniors, and working conditions for those who care for them.  What is happening, what has been allowed to happen, in seniors facilities is beyond horrid.

Having visited a number of long-term care homes in the past few years, they are generally not very uplifting environments, and the subsidized ones particularly so. The Quebec disaster case aside, however, I don't know that this is a major factor in the long-term care infections, but the lack of PPE for the staff has surely had an impact.

That said, I would very much like to see in increase in the subsidy amount, accompanied by some tightened standards on the level of care to be provided. I don't think you can just throw money at this problem indiscriminately, though, and hope that it'll solve itself. It's not an easy problem.

[tomh009]

Any indications of deaths/recoveries in ICU?  To the extent that is is about saving the healthcare system, particularly ICUs, from being overwhelmed, this seems to represent considerably success, so far.

Alas, I have not seen any data on that.

[ac3r]

If nothing else comes out of all this, our society MUST improve living conditions for our non-indepent seniors, and working conditions for those who care for them.  What is happening, what has been allowed to happen, in seniors facilities is beyond horrid.

One big issue about non-independent seniors is not so much the living conditions they are in, but the low wages that the staff make - including PSWs, RN/RPNs, kitchen and housekeeping.

Pretty much every home that is currently hit with an outbreak in the province is privately owned, and PSWs who work at these places are lucky to make above minimum wage. This forces a lot of them to work two jobs - usually at two homes as that is what they are trained in. In comparison, the Region of Waterloo owned and operated Sunnyside Home pays PSWs over 20 an hour to start and RN/RPNs make much more - even the kitchen and housekeeping staff make above 20. So far, Sunnyside has no outbreak in the resident population and it's limited to 4 staff members the last I checked. They took steps to prohibit staff from working in more than one home weeks before the province issued the order to prevent that this week, and because of their good pay and diligence, they've so far avoided any problems.

If these privately operated paid their staff more money, they wouldn't be forced to be working multiple jobs. They easily could, too, because these places rake in money as it costs a lot to be able to live in one. Unfortunately, low wages have resulted in workers juggling two or more jobs to pay the bills and that has resulted in so much death from Covid-19.

[ijmorlan]

If these privately operated paid their staff more money, they wouldn't be forced to be working multiple jobs. They easily could, too, because these places rake in money as it costs a lot to be able to live in one. Unfortunately, low wages have resulted in workers juggling two or more jobs to pay the bills and that has resulted in so much death from Covid-19.

Do you happen to know what are typical hours? I mean are they working 2 or 3 jobs at 15 hours each to get something like full time, or are they basically working multiple full-time jobs?

If they are stringing together multiple part-time jobs then allowing each to hold only a single job is an obvious way of improving the situation and probably should have been the rule all along. Each employee will have to pick where they want to stay, then wherever they stop working pretty much needs to increase the hours of another employee to make it up. Roughly speaking, they should each end up with a single full-time job.

[embe]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

Other than make a scene, should this guy even be out in public?

[jgsz]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

Other than make a scene, should this guy even be out in public?

 Sure.  Why not?  Eccentrics can make a neighborhood very interesting.

[tomh009]

514 new cases in Ontario today for a 6.1% increase; only 5.7% of the tests were positive (although more testing will always tend to reduce the percentage of positives). 290 recovered and 38 dead for a net addition of 186 active cases.

128,093 people tested to date, 9,001 more than yesterday; I think this may be a new daily high for the number of tests. 807 cases currently hospitalized (+12) and 248 in the ICU (-6). The projected mid-April ICU peak is clearly not here. Have we avoided or just delayed it?

Infections now reported at 104 long-term care homes (+6). How many homes remain to be checked?

Quebec added 997 cases today, up to 7% again, for the first time in six days. 148,571 tests done to date -- about 5,000 for the past day, less than Ontario. 1018 currently hospitalized (+24) and 209 in ICU (-9). Quebec has about 20% of its hospitalized cases in the ICU, whereas Ontario is at 31% (which is down significantly from a week ago).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%)

[tomh009]

564 new cases in Ontario today for a 6.3% increase; 6.3% of the tests were positive. 364 recovered and 55 dead (new highs for both categories) for a net addition of 145 active cases.

136,992 people tested to date, 8,899 more than yesterday. 829 cases currently hospitalized (+22) and 245 in the ICU (-3); now only 30% of the hospitalized cases are in the ICU.

Infections now reported at 106 long-term care homes (+2).

Quebec added 941 cases today, up 6%. 153,722 tests done to date -- about 5,000 for the past day, 1076 currently hospitalized (+58) and 207 in ICU (-2).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%)

   

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region cases in this chart. The growth in total cases has really broken since last weekend, and the number of active cases is actually declining now.

   

About 40% of the region's cases -- and 12 of the 19 deaths -- are in long-term care homes. 92 cases at Forest Heights Revera and 24 at Highview.

[ijmorlan]

Waterloo Region cases in this chart. The growth in total cases has really broken since last weekend, and the number of active cases is actually declining now.



About 40% of the region's cases -- and 12 of the 19 deaths -- are in long-term care homes. 92 cases at Forest Heights Revera and 24 at Highview.

Why don’t the numbers add up? Shouldn’t total cases equal deaths plus active cases plus resolved cases? Or alternately, if deaths are one sub-division of resolved cases, shouldn’t total cases equal active cases plus resolved cases?

[neonjoe]

the endpoints in the graphs aren’t on the same dates. Looks like deaths and resolved are reported more quickly.

[jgsz]

According to the Waterloo Region Health Department there were 399 cases of Covid19.  Today it is 474.  That's an increase by 75 cases.

[tomh009]

According to the Waterloo Region Health Department there were 399 cases of Covid19.  Today it is 474.  That's an increase by 75 cases.

Yes. Not clear yet why the big jump. But LTC case count is now up to 195 so I suspect they have been doing more testing at LTC facilities. Based on the region's data, the infections are not new, the symptoms already set in some time ago, so it's people who had symptoms but did not get tested earlier. My guess (and it's just a guess) is that they had not been doing enough testing in LTC facilities so they are now uncovering these cases. Revera Forest Heights is up to 118 cases ...