The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

This doesn't matter when looking at trends, as long as the testing methodology remains constant, we can still see whether cases are going up, down, or flat.

You're right about this: we can see that the rate of growth is slowing, at least. And the hospitalization and death numbers don't lie, anyway.

But if we can't conduct more than a few thousand tests a day, I don't understand how we can ever hope to reopen society. My understanding from everything I read is that, once things are reopened (and they have to be), only aggressive contact tracing gives us a hope of managing the resulting surge in infections. We can't even test to find out who is infected, forget about tracing the contacts of those who are.

You're not wrong, we do need substantial testing and contact tracing, but only in the future, it's why I'm not worried about the testing right now, I'm not saying it won't be important in the future, just that it is not the top priority today.

[tomh009]

But if we can't conduct more than a few thousand tests a day, I don't understand how we can ever hope to reopen society. My understanding from everything I read is that, once things are reopened (and they have to be), only aggressive contact tracing gives us a hope of managing the resulting surge in infections. We can't even test to find out who is infected, forget about tracing the contacts of those who are.

We've had capacity for 5000+ for quite a while. What they have done is set a policy for who can and should be testing, and that policy was based on ensuring that the selected people fit within the testing capacity.

Now that we are getting fewer people with symptoms the number of tests is down. And since the test capacity is also increasing, they can now change the criteria for qualifying for a test -- and thus do more tests per day.

[tomh009]

But 53 or 57 over the three days?

I think the correct number is 59.

I prefer to use the primary data from the region/province/feds as there is less chance that someone misrecorded or misunderstood a number.

[tomh009]

483 new cases in Ontario today for a 6.4% increase. 211 recovered and 43 dead for a net addition of 229 active cases.

113,082 people tested to date, 4852 more than yesterday. 769 cases currently hospitalized (+9) and 263 in the ICU (-8), so the ICU population has now been stable for about a week at around 260 patients. Infections now reported at 93 long-term care homes (+4); over half the dead to date or in long-term care homes.

Quebec added 691 cases today, about 5% again. 137,451 tests done to date (10,000+ for the past day). 936 currently hospitalized (+112) and 230 in ICU (+13).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%)

Ontario ICU capacity chart (done with Photoshop this time for higher precision) below.

   

[Coke6pk]

From your markers, it looks like we are flattening the curve (at least for ICU cases) …. are we doing the same overall, or is the ICU graph misleading?

Coke

[panamaniac]

The media are reporting 530 "new or probable" cases in Ontario in the past 24 hrs.

[jgsz]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

   

[tomh009]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

You don't need to keep a 2m distance to buildings or parked cars, though. I have not had much of an issue keeping a 2m distance (to other people) on city sidewalks.

(Did not read the article as I'm not a Star subscriber)

[tomh009]

From your markers, it looks like we are flattening the curve (at least for ICU cases) …. are we doing the same overall, or is the ICU graph misleading?

New cases are increasing at average of about 7.5% over the last week, much better than before but still needs to come down. Active caseload has been increasing at about 5.5% per day. Hospital caseload has increased at about 3% per day, ICU only about 1%.

Overall, I'd say the social distancing is doing what it should be. At this point I'm not expecting them to tighten the restrictions further. (It could happen later, of course.)

[jgsz]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

You don't need to keep a 2m distance to buildings or parked cars, though. I have not had much of an issue keeping a 2m distance (to other people) on city sidewalks.

(Did not read the article as I'm not a Star subscriber)

Our problem is with the elevators.  Outside the elevator there is a diagram showing only two people in the elevator.  Inside the elevator the diagram shows three people.   Our elevator is a standard size and there is no way two people can be 6 feet 6.74 inches apart on the inside.  If social distancing becomes the norm high rise buildings will need more elevators than today.  Or a total rethink...

[danbrotherston]

This photo and story from the Toronto Star shows why keeping the recommended distance is virtually impossible.

You don't need to keep a 2m distance to buildings or parked cars, though. I have not had much of an issue keeping a 2m distance (to other people) on city sidewalks.

(Did not read the article as I'm not a Star subscriber)

It depends on where, sidewalks in a neighborhood, with big boulevards, no problem.  Busy sidewalks with lots of people, and curbfaced, almost impossible.

[tomh009]

You don't need to keep a 2m distance to buildings or parked cars, though. I have not had much of an issue keeping a 2m distance (to other people) on city sidewalks.

It depends on where, sidewalks in a neighborhood, with big boulevards, no problem.  Busy sidewalks with lots of people, and curbfaced, almost impossible.

Downtown Kitchener sidewalks with minimal (or no) boulevards, on the occasions when it's necessary, I find it easy to either switch onto the street or cross to the other side. But that's because at the moment there is really very little traffic, both pedestrian and vehicle (at least anywhere DTK-ish that I have walked in the last month). Downtown Toronto might be much more challenging.

[tomh009]

Our problem is with the elevators.  Outside the elevator there is a diagram showing only two people in the elevator.  Inside the elevator the diagram shows three people.   Our elevator is a standard size and there is no way two people can be 6 feet 6.74 inches apart on the inside.  If social distancing becomes the norm high rise buildings will need more elevators than today.  Or a total rethink...

In our condo building we posted our own "COVID-19 Elevator Etiquette" signs rather than using the generic government ones. Ours ask people not to enter the elevator if there is already someone (from another unit) in the elevator.

The signs do seem to be working for us. Of course, the significantly lower amount of elevator traffic also works in our favour.

[tomh009]

494 new cases in Ontario today for a 6.2% increase; the rate of increase has been quite stable recently in spite of the increased testing (last four days have seen a 50% increase in the number of tests). 334 recovered and 51 dead for a net addition of 109 active cases, a new low.

119,092 people tested to date, 6,010 more than yesterday. 795 cases currently hospitalized (+26) and 254 in the ICU (-1). The ICU percentage (of total hospitalized cases) has been steadily dropping over the last week, from 42% to 32% today. Are there fewer severe cases? If so, why? Is it because of the mortality of the ICU cases, and fewer incoming ICU patients?

Infections now reported at 98 long-term care homes (+5), or about 15.5% of the total long-term care homes in Ontario.

Quebec added 612 cases today, about 5% again. 143,174 tests done to date (almost 6,000 for the past day). 984 currently hospitalized (+48) and 218 in ICU (-12). First ICU decrease in a long time.

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)

[panamaniac]

If nothing else comes out of all this, our society MUST improve living conditions for our non-indepent seniors, and working conditions for those who care for them. What is happening, what has been allowed to happen, in seniors facilities is beyond horrid.