Region of Waterloo International Airport - YKF

[ac3r]

Any anecdotal reports yet on how Flair flight(s?) out of YKF are doing?

I've come across a few threads on Reddit since they launched and it seems like the flights are usually fairly full (80-95%). It seems like it's doing well, which is surprising in the middle of a pandemic. Normally, airlines here struggle even in the best of times. Offer people cheap, reliable transportation and they'll use it...who could have guessed!

[danbrotherston]

First of all, the regional population is ~617,000 as of 2019. I don't think this is "nearly 700k".

Isn't it over 700k if you include Guelph?

I'm sure it is, but there is no geopolitical definition of "Waterloo Region" which includes Guelph.

[jamincan]

Yeah, but when discussing catchment for the airport, it is clearly relevant.

[danbrotherston]

Yeah, but when discussing catchment for the airport, it is clearly relevant.

Yes, but that did not appear to be what was being referred to.

The catchment area is significantly larger than 700k, so just adding Guelph to make the numbers line up doesn't make sense to me.

In any case, I'll admit that was really just a nitpick, not the most important point.

[Chris]

Isn't it over 700k if you include Guelph?

I'm sure it is, but there is no geopolitical definition of "Waterloo Region" which includes Guelph.

The airport used to be called the Waterloo-Wellington Airport.

[Coke6pk]

Normally, airlines here struggle even in the best of times.

Source?

Sunwing and WestJet (obviously for WG pre-pandemic) both do well. American Airlines was overbooked on almost every flight.

The only airlines that don't succeed are the ones who aren't really serious (Northwest/Delta to Detroit had an agreement with Toyota who subsidized the flight, and additional passengers were just gravy, and FlyGTA didn't even have an aircraft coming here except for PhotoOps and Press Junkets)

I no longer work at YKF, but when I've gone to visit my colleagues there, there is a lot of activity in the hall that wasn't there before.

Coke

[danbrotherston]

Normally, airlines here struggle even in the best of times.

Source?

Sunwing and WestJet (obviously for WG pre-pandemic) both do well.  American Airlines was overbooked on almost every flight.

The only airlines that don't succeed are the ones who aren't really serious (Northwest/Delta to Detroit had an agreement with Toyota who subsidized the flight, and additional passengers were just gravy, and FlyGTA didn't even have an aircraft coming here except for PhotoOps and Press Junkets)

I no longer work at YKF, but when I've gone to visit my colleagues there, there is a lot of activity in the hall that wasn't there before.

Coke

I mean, flights have come and gone from our airport. Even some of the examples you give of "doing well" have stopped flying, like AA's flight to Chicago. WestJet has also cancelled routes if I recall correctly. As well bearskin's flights to Ottawa were also cancelled. And this is all in the few years I've paid attention.

You can argue about the future prospects of our airport if you want, but it is entirely uncontroversial to say that it has struggled.

[Rainrider22]

With respect to AA, flights were stopped not just in Kitchener but all over North America when they realigned themselves from a financial perspective. The YKF to Chicago was very successful.

Bear Skin stopped service from YKF to Ottawa because they shut their entire operations down in Ottawa due to an unrealistic raise in gate costs. This route also did very well. I used it many times and the plane was full most times I was on it.

[panamaniac]

Do we know what the terminal expansion is going to look like?

[danbrotherston]

I mean, I'm aware there are other factors. There always are.

The fact is, those routes left and were not replaced. If they really were wildly successful, they wouldn't have left, or at least would have attracted another airline.

They might not have been losing money outright, or at least, were providing some value to the companies, but they were clearly marginal given that they could be lost and did not attract another airline.

[Coke6pk]

I mean, I'm aware there are other factors. There always are.

The fact is, those routes left and were not replaced. If they really were wildly successful, they wouldn't have left, or at least would have attracted another airline.

They might not have been losing money outright, or at least, were providing some value to the companies, but they were clearly marginal given that they could be lost and did not attract another airline.

What other airline would be attracted... because they WERE wildly successful.  In the case of AA, an executive told me they were profitable at about 15-20 pax.  The plane held 53 (50 pax, 3 crew) and was full, twice daily.  The issue AA had with YKF was US Pre-Clearance.  They had to land at the international terminal in Chicago, then the plane was taxied over to the domestic terminal, costing them two gate fees.  It still made money, but when they cancelled YKF, it became the Akron - Chicago flight, eliminating those extra fees.  At the same time, extra flights were added at LBPIA (where there is pre-clearance) and they knew that we would do the hour long drive to take the same flight... which we did.

The airline industry is normally very timid, and as an exec once told me "If you take a risk on a small airport like this, and it pays off, great.  If it doesn't, you are likely out of a job.  Put that same flight into a Pearson like airport, and win or lose, you'll still be employed"

WestJet touted a Vancouver flight, but it did a stop in Calgary, and was essentially the same flight we have now.  I don't believe they have cancelled anything.  (They have done limited expansion for a 3-6 month period with extra flights, and then those have ended)

As Flair grows, the "risk" associated with RoWIA will diminish.

Coke

[danbrotherston]

I mean, I'm aware there are other factors. There always are.

The fact is, those routes left and were not replaced. If they really were wildly successful, they wouldn't have left, or at least would have attracted another airline.

They might not have been losing money outright, or at least, were providing some value to the companies, but they were clearly marginal given that they could be lost and did not attract another airline.

What other airline would be attracted... because they WERE wildly successful.  In the case of AA, an executive told me they were profitable at about 15-20 pax.  The plane held 53 (50 pax, 3 crew) and was full, twice daily.  The issue AA had with YKF was US Pre-Clearance.  They had to land at the international terminal in Chicago, then the plane was taxied over to the domestic terminal, costing them two gate fees.  It still made money, but when they cancelled YKF, it became the Akron - Chicago flight, eliminating those extra fees.  At the same time, extra flights were added at LBPIA (where there is pre-clearance) and they knew that we would do the hour long drive to take the same flight... which we did.

The airline industry is normally very timid, and as an exec once told me "If you take a risk on a small airport like this, and it pays off, great.  If it doesn't, you are likely out of a job.  Put that same flight into a Pearson like airport, and win or lose, you'll still be employed"

WestJet touted a Vancouver flight, but it did a stop in Calgary, and was essentially the same flight we have now.  I don't believe they have cancelled anything.  (They have done limited expansion for a 3-6 month period with extra flights, and then those have ended)

As Flair grows, the "risk" associated with RoWIA will diminish.

Coke

I'm sorry, I don't get your point, they were successful, yet still left because other routes were more successful.

How is that not marginal and struggling?

[Coke6pk]

What other airline would be attracted... because they WERE wildly successful.  In the case of AA, an executive told me they were profitable at about 15-20 pax.  The plane held 53 (50 pax, 3 crew) and was full, twice daily.  The issue AA had with YKF was US Pre-Clearance.  They had to land at the international terminal in Chicago, then the plane was taxied over to the domestic terminal, costing them two gate fees.  It still made money, but when they cancelled YKF, it became the Akron - Chicago flight, eliminating those extra fees.  At the same time, extra flights were added at LBPIA (where there is pre-clearance) and they knew that we would do the hour long drive to take the same flight... which we did.

The airline industry is normally very timid, and as an exec once told me "If you take a risk on a small airport like this, and it pays off, great.  If it doesn't, you are likely out of a job.  Put that same flight into a Pearson like airport, and win or lose, you'll still be employed"

WestJet touted a Vancouver flight, but it did a stop in Calgary, and was essentially the same flight we have now.  I don't believe they have cancelled anything.  (They have done limited expansion for a 3-6 month period with extra flights, and then those have ended)

As Flair grows, the "risk" associated with RoWIA will diminish.

Coke

I'm sorry, I don't get your point, they were successful, yet still left because other routes were more successful.

How is that not marginal and struggling?

You can't make more money than a sold out flight, so to refer to it as marginal and/or struggling is what I'm trying to counter.

Is the other more more profititable?  I doubt it.  But it does open an extra gate for a separate international flight.

There are logistical/financial reasons outside of our control when it comes to US airlines using RoWIA.

I'm glad AC never came in... they would of effectively killed everything we had to date like they normally do in their need for monopoly.  WestJet's local management is based out of Hamilton, and they keep expansion there first.  Flair is the kind of airline that CAN succeed in RoWIA, and I hope they do.  So far, they seem to be doing well.

Coke

[ijmorlan]

You can't make more money than a sold out flight, so to refer to it as marginal and/or struggling is what I'm trying to counter.

Sold out at what fare level, though?

You could probably sell out any flight by selling the last few seats for a low enough amount of money, but that wouldn’t mean the flight or the whole route was profitable.

That being said, I haven’t been following closely enough to have an opinion on how well various routes and airlines have been doing.

[Coke6pk]

You can't make more money than a sold out flight, so to refer to it as marginal and/or struggling is what I'm trying to counter.

Sold out at what fare level, though?

You could probably sell out any flight by selling the last few seats for a low enough amount of money, but that wouldn’t mean the flight or the whole route was profitable.

That being said, I haven’t been following closely enough to have an opinion on how well various routes and airlines have been doing.

My experience was only with International Flights, so I can't speak to Flair and/or WestJet.... but American Airlines were not normally discounted fares.

Coke