ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[Momo26]

Oops saw this thread after I posted in other iON thread. Regardless..looks like iON expansion into Cambridge is closer to being completely scrapped



“I know that’s earth-shattering news, but that was an open session of regional council today,” she said during the Cambridge meeting.

The expansion of LRT into Cambridge carries a hefty price tag of about $4.5 billion. Liggett said it might not be realistic in today’s economy.

[mgregorasz]

Oops saw this thread after I posted in other iON thread. Regardless..looks like iON expansion into Cambridge is closer to being completely scrapped



“I know that’s earth-shattering news, but that was an open session of regional council today,” she said during the Cambridge meeting.

The expansion of LRT into Cambridge carries a hefty price tag of about $4.5 billion. Liggett said it might not be realistic in today’s economy.

Take what Jan Liggett says with a grain of salt. At the public meeting for the proposed development on Guelph Ave across from Four Fathers Brewing, she told the developers planner to not rely on the existing bus route and stop to always been there, even though Guelph Ave is the only direct route from the Hespeler core into the Silverheights area. 

I tried watching the video of the May 6 committee meeting where the BRT option got brought up, but it hasn't been posted yet. Keep in mind that the $4.5 billion cost is close to a ballpark number at this point.

I'd have to watch the video of the committee meeting from last year prior to the inital business case starting, but if I remember correctly, one of the councilors wanted BRT included.

[ZEBuilder]

I can't say much on it knowing some of what is happening internally. However the entire point of a business case is to consider the financial viability, and alignment with strategic goals of organizations in this case the Region/Province. Through the process you do consider multiple options, the "do nothing case" is always considered because its the current situation. The same thing happens when you do a Municpal Class C EA, its just to cover all the basis.

Keep in mind this is not a feasibility study that is the TRPAP process which is already completed. The business case is purely looking at the economics of it and how it relates to things like ROPA 6, PPS 2024 and other policy documents (Growing Together).

The Region has also quietly been purchasing property along the corridor and doing reconstructions with the LRT in mind (There's a reason River Rd is taking forever). While it obviously may not come to fruition you have to also consider the cost of those already done projects which included the LRT RoW when you're doing the cost benefit analysis (including the success of phase 1).

Then lastly remember that things today are always going to be cheaper when compared to things in the future, would the Region rather do it now or wait for the cost to be 4x.

[Momo26]

Exactly. Now or pay more later..

Pay more is almost always chosen ha

[nms]

I can't say much on it knowing some of what is happening internally. However the entire point of a business case is to consider the financial viability, and alignment with strategic goals of organizations in this case the Region/Province. Through the process you do consider multiple options, the "do nothing case" is always considered because its the current situation. The same thing happens when you do a Municpal Class C EA, its just to cover all the basis.

Keep in mind this is not a feasibility study that is the TRPAP process which is already completed. The business case is purely looking at the economics of it and how it relates to things like ROPA 6, PPS 2024 and other policy documents (Growing Together).

The Region has also quietly been purchasing property along the corridor and doing reconstructions with the LRT in mind (There's a reason River Rd is taking forever). While it obviously may not come to fruition you have to also consider the cost of those already done projects which included the LRT RoW when you're doing the cost benefit analysis (including the success of phase 1).

Then lastly remember that things today are always going to be cheaper when compared to things in the future, would the Region rather do it now or wait for the cost to be 4x.

Depending on how the accounting is being doing, how much of the quoted $4.5 billion has already been spent on acquisition or infrastructure upgrades? For instance, since the property aquisition or upgrades were likely to occur anyways, most of it would fit within existing capital plans and not "LRT Phase 2" but when asked, "How much is LRT Phase 2" are those pieces being already included in the final price?

[KevinL]

TriTAG have launched a new site specifically for advocating ION expansion: https://ionizewr.ca/

[bravado]

I just think that's viewing history through rose-coloured glasses. Phase 1 was a political knife fight and I have to think that if you polled KW residents, you still might even get a majority or plurality who still think it was a big waste of money. The thing that got it over the tipping point was almost-normal costs* and a larger-than-average bloc of academics and urban-dwellers to endlessly advocate.

I don't think any other Ontario city has those features - which means that we will literally never see transit like this built anywhere else either. A significant chunk of local leadership in Cambridge has been writing all sorts of statements and letters of support, but the state of local news is so tragic and comatose that I bet nobody here has seen them and still think that Doug Craig is the only voice in town. KW had and still has plenty of Doug Craigs - they were just (temporarily) defeated for Phase 1. It seems like nobody has the political will to bother doing it again and thinks it's easier to just assume Cambridge is a basket case without even trying.

* it's so frustrating to have this debate and conversation while the absurd cost topic is hanging over us, completely unaddressed by the levels of government who could address it but refuse to

[Momo26]

Everything comes with a cost.

Let's face it...this thing's ridership came from 1/3 to maybe 1/2 college students and many other transient residents.

It did not serve any suburban centre or area whatsoever (not without a connection- or two!)

Would ridership flock in Cambridge?


We have a massive new hospital on the horizon...can we addord a Cambridge LRT extension?

[ZEBuilder]

Everything comes with a cost.

Let's face it...this thing's ridership came from 1/3 to maybe 1/2 college students and many other transient residents.

It did not serve any suburban centre or area whatsoever (not without a connection- or two!)

Would ridership flock in Cambridge?


We have a massive new hospital on the horizon...can we addord a Cambridge LRT extension?

Keep in mind where funding is coming from is yet to he determined. The region is going to try and get full funding from the province and federal government, they have arguably the best argument to to do so on basis that every other LRT (except Ottawa and ours) has been fully funded, ours has shown what it can do he that urban development, a shift in modal share (I have this stat somewhere), and there's the basis that ridership is there, its more packed than a bus will ever be at rush hour.

Yes the cost may be upwards of 3.5 billion now but that's not guaranteed to be coming exclusively from the Region and won't.

[danbrotherston]

Everything comes with a cost.

Let's face it...this thing's ridership came from 1/3 to maybe 1/2 college students and many other transient residents.

It did not serve any suburban centre or area whatsoever (not without a connection- or two!)

Would ridership flock in Cambridge?


We have a massive new hospital on the horizon...can we addord a Cambridge LRT extension?

"It did not serve any suburban centre or area"...

Erm? Fairway Mall, Block Line, Mill, Borden, R&T Park, Northfield, Conestoga Mall.

Even if I'm extremely generous and give you our extremely suburban Universities as "urban" along with the relatively sprawling void between Kitchener and Waterloo, the vast majority of the line is still serving suburban sprawl areas.

And I'm not sure what serving students and "transient residents" (whatever those are) has to do with whether we should build it or not?

As a former "transient" "student" in the region, I find this kind of attitude frustrating at best. I stayed in the region after school DESPITE the attitude I got from older residents in the city not because of it.

[creative]

I believe that he was referring to the surge in ridership due to the huge influx of foreign students which inflated ridership numbers and also population growth forecasts.

[danbrotherston]

I believe that he was referring to the surge in ridership due to the huge influx of foreign students which inflated ridership numbers and also population growth forecasts.

I mean, 1/3 - 1/2 of riders were absolutely not foreign students at Conestoga college.

But even so, that does not "inflate" ridership numbers, that's just people riding the train.

I do agree that closing the Conestoga college downtown campus will hurt ridership some, but the train still services two other much larger post secondary institutions.

[creative]

Where did I say 1/3 to 1/2? Taking 30,000 riders out of the system at say 2-4 trips a day are a lot of riders. Just like everything else, they had a huge impact on services in our area from food banks to rental accommodations. For rent signs are popping up everywhere.

https://kitchener.citynews.ca/2025/06/09...ridership/

Grand River Transit (GRT) is seeing declining ridership so far in 2025.

A report from the transit agency shows ridership in the first quarter of this year has dropped more than 16 per cent compared to 2024, and a leading factor is changes in the post-secondary sector.

“GRT’s first quarter ridership has declined 16.5 per cent compared to 2024 because of fluctuations in post-secondary student populations,” said the report. “Student ridership has been impacted by recent changes to federal immigration policies, reduced postsecondary enrolment, and campus consolidation.”

[bravado]

Give us a call when people post studies about declining traffic volume and propose stopping new highways and tearing out existing lanes. We only do this charade for transit.

Skipping Phase 2 to Cambridge only guarantees a low density, sprawling, and resentful appendage will be forever be attached to Waterloo Region. Do it at your own peril, I'd say. The alternative of maintaining the status quo in Cambridge (and future locations for Phase 3 + etc) just formalizes the stagnation and eventual ruin of the financially unproductive areas of the region.

Again, we don't build bridges where we see people swimming across the river... We build bridges to enable trips that aren't being taken today (and are obviously not measurable). We build transit BECAUSE ridership is low. We build infrastructure to grow tax revenue and increase wealth to deliver more useful services.

[danbrotherston]

Where did I say 1/3 to 1/2?….

You didn’t. Momo26 did