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The COVID-19 pandemic
510 new cases in Ontario today for a 4.4% increase. 415 recovered and 37 dead for a net addition of just 58 active cases -- approaching zero now. There are now 5,365 active cases given 6,221 recoveries and 659 deaths.

184,531 people tested to date, the first day with over 10,000 tests. 878 cases currently hospitalized (+19) and 243 in the ICU (-7).

Quebec added 839 cases today, up 4.2% again today, matching the lowest percentage increase yet from yesterday. 176,048 tests done to date, about 4,500 in the last 24h. 1079 currently hospitalized (-145) and 199 in ICU (-2). Wild gyrations in the hospitalization numbers recently, though.

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%)
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(04-22-2020, 01:47 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 510 new cases in Ontario today for a 4.4% increase. 415 recovered and 37 dead for a net addition of just 58 active cases -- approaching zero now. There are now 5,365 active cases given 6,221 recoveries and 659 deaths.

184,531 people tested to date, the first day with over 10,000 tests. 878 cases currently hospitalized (+19) and 243 in the ICU (-7).

Quebec added 839 cases today, up 4.2% again today, matching the lowest percentage increase yet from yesterday. 176,048 tests done to date, about 4,500 in the last 24h. 1079 currently hospitalized (-145) and 199 in ICU (-2). Wild gyrations in the hospitalization numbers recently, though.

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%)

Some hopeful signs for sure! I also just wanted to thank you for your daily reporting tomh009. I have really appreciated this condensed format.
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(04-22-2020, 04:53 PM)KingandWeber Wrote: Some hopeful signs for sure! I also just wanted to thank you for your daily reporting tomh009. I have really appreciated this condensed format.

I appreciate it as well
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As long as there is a lockdown, the numbers will drop as fast as they rose. Getting to 0 is going to be hard though: the rate of recoveries also seems to stall out at some point (presumably the more serious cases tend to stay in hospital for a while).
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There are roughly 4,500 non-hospitalized active cases in Ontario right now; that's just less than the last nine days' new case count. That's a bit less than the median confirmation-to-discharge period in Singapore (see below) but it may be that Singapore was testing people sooner after the infection.
https://towardsdatascience.com/visual-no...d7f2e1d0a0

But if we assume a typical 11 days in an active status, then we should be seeing about 400 cases coming off the active rolls per day (as recoveries), plus some deaths. (We had 415 yesterday.) If we can get the daily count of new cases down from the 500-600 range to somewhere around 400, the actual active caseload will start dropping.

Without detailed analysis (and missing a lot of data), it seems that a lot of the recent new cases have been in retirement homes and LTC facilities. If we are now starting to get a handle on those, maybe 400 new is a reasonable target.
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(04-22-2020, 08:33 PM)tomh009 Wrote: There are roughly 4,500 non-hospitalized active cases in Ontario right now; that's just less than the last nine days' new case count. That's a bit less than the median confirmation-to-discharge period in Singapore (see below) but it may be that Singapore was testing people sooner after the infection.
https://towardsdatascience.com/visual-no...d7f2e1d0a0

Unfortunately my recent experience gives me very little faith in that number of active non-hospitalized cases. I'm a close contact of someone that has tested positive, who I'm currently caring for, and I've recently developed symptoms, so I almost certainly have it. I spent hours on Monday and Tuesday getting bounced around on the phone between Waterloo Public Health, Hamilton Public Health, Telehealth Ontario, random walk-in clinics, Grand River Hospital, and more. I was given clearly incorrect information by Telehealth about how to be tested, more wrong info by Waterloo Public Health, and at one point told by Waterloo Public Health "There's no treatment for Covid-19, are you sure you really need to be tested? We agree you meet the criteria, but it's going to involve [a lot of paperwork and phone calls], maybe you should just wait and see?"

After over a dozen phone calls and many hours of waiting for callbacks I did finally manage to arrange to get tested, but it's a two day wait that I'm still waiting for. Luckily I'm working from home with a very understanding employer, that's willing to give me all the time off I need to deal with this. But as someone with relatively mild symptoms, I totally understand why a lot of people in my situation would just give up and not be tested. Certainly the stress of dealing with that wasn't what I needed right now when I should be resting and recovering.

If the roadblocks to getting tested are so extreme I find it hard to believe that our case counts are anything but a fiction. The hospitalization numbers give me more hope, I assume people would go to the ER if necessary, but it's hardly the level of reassuring I'd like it to be. I could write a whole essay on the failures of Waterloo Public Health, who repeatedly sent me elsewhere on wild goose chases despite agreeing I should be tested.
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(04-22-2020, 09:33 PM)taylortbb Wrote:
(04-22-2020, 08:33 PM)tomh009 Wrote: There are roughly 4,500 non-hospitalized active cases in Ontario right now; that's just less than the last nine days' new case count. That's a bit less than the median confirmation-to-discharge period in Singapore (see below) but it may be that Singapore was testing people sooner after the infection.
https://towardsdatascience.com/visual-no...d7f2e1d0a0

Unfortunately my recent experience gives me very little faith in that number of active non-hospitalized cases.

There is no doubt that there are people with COVID-19 that have not been confirmed. In Ontario, in Canada and in other countries. But because there is no way to measure those, we need to rely on the number of active confirmed cases. Unless the test availability changes substantially, the number of active cases should still be directionally valid, even if not matching the total number of currently infected people.
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(04-23-2020, 10:16 AM)tomh009 Wrote:
(04-22-2020, 09:33 PM)taylortbb Wrote: Unfortunately my recent experience gives me very little faith in that number of active non-hospitalized cases.

There is no doubt that there are people with COVID-19 that have not been confirmed. In Ontario, in Canada and in other countries. But because there is no way to measure those, we need to rely on the number of active confirmed cases. Unless the test availability changes substantially, the number of active cases should still be directionally valid, even if not matching the total number of currently infected people.

This and SO much this.

I'm so tired of the "we're not testing everyone" or "I know some uncle who they wouldn't test when he had a headache" concluding with "thus the numbers we have are completely false/useless/a lie/whatever".

The numbers are not complete, it does not mean they are not useful, and it does not mean they do not show trends.

The level of stats/science/math literacy is so low, worse, the level of reading comprehension is also shockingly low.
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634 new cases in Ontario today for a 5.2% increase; a reasonable percentage but the highest daily number of new cases yet. 459 recovered and 54 dead for a net addition of 121 active cases; an average of 163 cases over the last week. There are now 5,486 active cases given 6,680 recoveries and 713 deaths.

194,745 people tested to date, a second day with over 10,000 tests. 887 cases currently hospitalized (+9) and 233 in the ICU (-10).

Quebec added 873 cases today, the rate of increase is steady at 4.2% but the number of cases keeps creeping up. 180,833 tests done to date, about 4,800 in the last 24h. 1204 currently hospitalized (+125 after a drop of 145 yesterday) and 207 in ICU (+8).

March
2020-03-23 778 (+258%) 2020-03-24 1040 (+34%) 2020-03-25 1339 (+29%) 2020-03-26 1629 (+22%) 2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%) 2020-03-29 2840 (+13%) 2020-03-30 3430 (+21%) 2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%)
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(04-23-2020, 10:52 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: This and SO much this.

I'm so tired of the "we're not testing everyone" or "I know some uncle who they wouldn't test when he had a headache" concluding with "thus the numbers we have are completely false/useless/a lie/whatever".

The numbers are not complete, it does not mean they are not useful, and it does not mean they do not show trends.

The level of stats/science/math literacy is so low, worse, the level of reading comprehension is also shockingly low.

The problem is that we need mass testing in order to ease the very strict restrictions we are living under right now. This is why people are fixated on the levels of testing, and I think that's valid.

If we are preoccupied with whether the health care system is going to be able to handle the number of cases, the data we have now demonstrate that well enough by (you're right) showing trends, and by looking at the current numbers of deaths and hospitalizations.

Ontario has repeatedly missed its own targets for number of tests administered. It is unclear whether its current targets of 14,000 per day by April 29 and 16,000 per day by May 6 are in line with the levels of testing required once restrictions start to be eased. I suspect not.

We're not testing everyone. We're not testing even near everyone. And everyone knows that, as a result, the true number of cases is many times higher than the reported number. That's not the problem. The problem is, we are testing a very small number of people, and that won't be enough when restrictions are loosened and the spread naturally increases as a result.
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(04-23-2020, 10:52 AM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(04-23-2020, 10:16 AM)tomh009 Wrote: There is no doubt that there are people with COVID-19 that have not been confirmed. In Ontario, in Canada and in other countries. But because there is no way to measure those, we need to rely on the number of active confirmed cases. Unless the test availability changes substantially, the number of active cases should still be directionally valid, even if not matching the total number of currently infected people.

This and SO much this.

I'm so tired of the "we're not testing everyone" or "I know some uncle who they wouldn't test when he had a headache" concluding with "thus the numbers we have are completely false/useless/a lie/whatever".

The numbers are not complete, it does not mean they are not useful, and it does not mean they do not show trends.

The level of stats/science/math literacy is so low, worse, the level of reading comprehension is also shockingly low.

I don't think we need to be testing everyone. However, if we aren't even testing people that we identify through contact tracing, and who DO meet our test criteria, how are we in a position to re-open anything? Pretty much everyone agrees contact tracing is going to be a key part of re-opening things, to keep cases reasonable. But right now my experience has told me contact tracing stops at the regional border. My close contact works in Hamilton so her case is managed by Hamilton public health, their ability to contact trace is limited to Hamilton residents only. Because I'm in Waterloo Region I'm totally excluded for any testing/follow up/etc. That's not going to cut it for reopening anything.
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(04-23-2020, 11:28 AM)MidTowner Wrote:
(04-23-2020, 10:52 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: This and SO much this.

I'm so tired of the "we're not testing everyone" or "I know some uncle who they wouldn't test when he had a headache" concluding with "thus the numbers we have are completely false/useless/a lie/whatever".

The numbers are not complete, it does not mean they are not useful, and it does not mean they do not show trends.

The level of stats/science/math literacy is so low, worse, the level of reading comprehension is also shockingly low.

The problem is that we need mass testing in order to ease the very strict restrictions we are living under right now. This is why people are fixated on the levels of testing, and I think that's valid.

If we are preoccupied with whether the health care system is going to be able to handle the number of cases, the data we have now demonstrate that well enough by (you're right) showing trends, and by looking at the current numbers of deaths and hospitalizations.

Ontario has repeatedly missed its own targets for number of tests administered. It is unclear whether its current targets of 14,000 per day by April 29 and 16,000 per day by May 6 are in line with the levels of testing required once restrictions start to be eased. I suspect not.

We're not testing everyone. We're not testing even near everyone. And everyone knows that, as a result, the true number of cases is many times higher than the reported number. That's not the problem. The problem is, we are testing a very small number of people, and that won't be enough when restrictions are loosened and the spread naturally increases as a result.

First, I don't think that's why people are fixated on testing. If they were, they'd be saying, we need more testing to lift restrictions. Instead most are saying something like "these numbers are meaningless/fake news because they don't do enough testing"--fundamentally different.

And second, "We are testing a very small number of people"...this isn't true either, or at least is totally subjective, I don't call 10,000 per day a "small number". The question is whether we are testing enough, and I trust the experts to know how many we need to test (basically enough for a random sampling of the population + those with symptoms--to watch for community spread--as well as enough to contact trace everyone who does have it--which is dependent on the number of infections), and shockingly I trust the government to actually follow those recommendations--which is why I'm not freaking out about those numbers, we aren't ready to lift restrictions yet anyway--there are other things that need to happen first as well--just like the virus itself, what is happening now, isn't relevant to what will be happening in a week or in a month.  Just like I wasn't unconcerned because we only had a few dozen cases a few months ago, because I knew it would get worse, I am also not concerned that we are doing maybe half the tests we need to be doing when we lift restrictions now because we won't be doing that for some time.
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(04-23-2020, 11:37 AM)taylortbb Wrote:
(04-23-2020, 10:52 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: This and SO much this.

I'm so tired of the "we're not testing everyone" or "I know some uncle who they wouldn't test when he had a headache" concluding with "thus the numbers we have are completely false/useless/a lie/whatever".

The numbers are not complete, it does not mean they are not useful, and it does not mean they do not show trends.

The level of stats/science/math literacy is so low, worse, the level of reading comprehension is also shockingly low.

I don't think we need to be testing everyone. However, if we aren't even testing people that we identify through contact tracing, and who DO meet our test criteria, how are we in a position to re-open anything? Pretty much everyone agrees contact tracing is going to be a key part of re-opening things, to keep cases reasonable. But right now my experience has told me contact tracing stops at the regional border. My close contact works in Hamilton so her case is managed by Hamilton public health, their ability to contact trace is limited to Hamilton residents only. Because I'm in Waterloo Region I'm totally excluded for any testing/follow up/etc. That's not going to cut it for reopening anything.

We aren't in a position to re-open anything.  It wouldn't matter if we were swabbing the entire population three times a day right now.  Contact tracing is the key, but we can't even contact trace everyone who has it, testing isn't the limitation there.

Nobody--besides nutjob americans (yes, the POTUS and Governors) are saying things should be reopened now.

Basically being worried that we won't be able to reopen things whenever it becomes possible...certainly not now...because we aren't doing enough testing right now...doesn't make any more sense than a month ago arguing that we shouldn't be worried because there weren't that many cases then. The world is dynamic, these things will change.
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(04-23-2020, 02:11 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(04-23-2020, 11:37 AM)taylortbb Wrote: I don't think we need to be testing everyone. However, if we aren't even testing people that we identify through contact tracing, and who DO meet our test criteria, how are we in a position to re-open anything? Pretty much everyone agrees contact tracing is going to be a key part of re-opening things, to keep cases reasonable. But right now my experience has told me contact tracing stops at the regional border. My close contact works in Hamilton so her case is managed by Hamilton public health, their ability to contact trace is limited to Hamilton residents only. Because I'm in Waterloo Region I'm totally excluded for any testing/follow up/etc. That's not going to cut it for reopening anything.

We aren't in a position to re-open anything.  It wouldn't matter if we were swabbing the entire population three times a day right now.  Contact tracing is the key, but we can't even contact trace everyone who has it, testing isn't the limitation there.

Nobody--besides nutjob americans (yes, the POTUS and Governors) are saying things should be reopened now.

Basically being worried that we won't be able to reopen things whenever it becomes possible...certainly not now...because we aren't doing enough testing right now...doesn't make any more sense than a month ago arguing that we shouldn't be worried because there weren't that many cases then.  The world is dynamic, these things will change.

I agree we're not in a position to open anything. But I think things should be moving in that direction, and I'm concerned they're not.

In any case, my 48 hour saga with public health wasn't about convincing them to test me. Every call started with them going down the testing criteria, and concluding that I met multiple criteria for priority testing, and that I should be tested. It was a crazy 48 hour wild goose chase going from public health telling me "you should be tested" to finally navigating the bureaucracy enough that I was in touch with someone who actually had the authority to authorize the test public health said I needed. Surely you agree that's not how it's supposed to work? We should be testing the people that meet the criteria, not giving them bureaucratic gauntlets to discourage it.
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(04-23-2020, 03:04 PM)taylortbb Wrote: I agree we're not in a position to open anything. But I think things should be moving in that direction, and I'm concerned they're not.

In any case, my 48 hour saga with public health wasn't about convincing them to test me. Every call started with them going down the testing criteria, and concluding that I met multiple criteria for priority testing, and that I should be tested. It was a crazy 48 hour wild goose chase going from public health telling me "you should be tested" to finally navigating the bureaucracy enough that I was in touch with someone who actually had the authority to authorize the test public health said I needed. Surely you agree that's not how it's supposed to work? We should be testing the people that meet the criteria, not giving them bureaucratic gauntlets to discourage it.

Sounds like a mixed-up process. Ideally, it would be something like “you should have a test. Do you agree?”

“Yes.”

“Can I just confirm your address is [address from health card]?”

[…]

“Can I confirm you will be at home tomorrow morning?”

[…]

“The testing unit will arrive sometime tomorrow morning. Please have your health card ready.”

Or alternately it could be conversation about what location you would like to go to and set up an appointment. But I think there is something to be said for having health officials do the travelling.
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