The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

"Beware of Antibody-based COVID-19 ‘Immunity Passports’"
Dozens of tests with unknown accuracy have flooded the U.S., thanks to a move by the FDA that loosened restrictions
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/obs...passports/

[tomh009]

The new-case count ticked up a bit to 412 in Ontario for a 2.3% increase, 9.5% of active cases. 443 recovered and 68 dead for a net decrease of 99 active cases and average daily drop of 150 over the past week. There are now 4,071 active cases given 13,222 recoveries and 1,429 deaths.

365,675 tests to date with 12,961 for the day. 3.2% of daily tests were positive. 1,032 cases currently hospitalized (-11) and 219 in the ICU (-4), the lowest ICU count in a month.

Quebec added 910 cases today for a 2.7% increase, a bit higher than the past three days. 254,921 tests done to date, about 10,400 in the last 24h. This is a new record, assuming it's not just a catch-up of previously unreported tests. 213 cases currently in ICU (-5). Today's hospitalization count shows as 1,840, and apparently well over 1,000 of those are in Montreal, more than in all of Ontario.

April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%) 2020-04-27 24982 (+4%) 2020-04-28 25757 (+3%) 2020-04-29 26594 (+3%) 2020-04-30 27538 (+4%)
May
2020-05-01 28648 (+4%) 2020-05-02 29656 (+4%) 2020-05-03 31865 (+2%) 2020-05-04 32623 (+2%) 2020-05-05 33417 (+2%)
2020-05-06 34327 (+3%)

[tomh009]

The Ontario new-case count remained steady, down just 13 to 399 in for a 2.1% increase, 9.8% of active cases. 347 recovered and 48 dead for a net increase of four active cases. There are now 4,075 active cases given 13,569 recoveries and 1,477 deaths.

380,854 tests to date with 15,179 for the day. 2.6% of daily tests were positive. 1,033 cases currently hospitalized (+1) and 220 in the ICU (+1).

Quebec added 911 cases today (just one more than yesterday) for a 2.7% increase. 264,143 tests done to date, about 9,200 in the last 24h. This not quite as high as yesterday but it does appear to indicate that Quebec has been able to crank up the testing capacity. 224 cases currently in ICU (+11).

April
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%) 2020-04-02 5518 (+20%) 2020-04-03 6101 (+8%) 2020-04-04 6997 (+15%) 2020-04-05 7944 (+14%)
2020-04-06 8580 (+8%) 2020-04-07 9340 (+9%) 2020-04-08 10031 (+7%) 2020-04-09 10912 (+9%) 2020-04-10 11677 (+7%)
2020-04-11 12292 (+5%) 2020-04-12 12846 (+5%) 2020-04-13 13557 (+6%) 2020-04-14 14248 (+5%) 2020-04-15 14860 (+5%)
2020-04-16 15857 (+7%) 2020-04-17 16798 (+6%) 2020-04-18 17521 (+4%) 2020-04-19 18357 (+5%) 2020-04-20 19319 (+5%)
2020-04-21 20126 (+4%) 2020-04-22 20965 (+4%) 2020-04-23 21838 (+4%) 2020-04-24 22616 (+4%) 2020-04-25 23267  (+3%)
2020-04-26 24107 (+4%) 2020-04-27 24982 (+4%) 2020-04-28 25757 (+3%) 2020-04-29 26594 (+3%) 2020-04-30 27538 (+4%)
May
2020-05-01 28648 (+4%) 2020-05-02 29656 (+4%) 2020-05-03 31865 (+2%) 2020-05-04 32623 (+2%) 2020-05-05 33417 (+2%)
2020-05-06 34327 (+3%) 2020-05-07 35238 (+3%)

[panamaniac]

With things now slowly reopening, I'm wondering whether we are starting to see what Ontario's "steady state" will look like in coming months, i.e. 300 or 400 hundred new cases per day, hospitals coping well ... ?

[tomh009]

I would think the goal would be to keep the number of active cases steady in the 4,000 range. With roughly 10% of active cases coming off the books each day, that means that new cases would also need to stay somewhere around 400 per day.

[panamaniac]

I think that there will be face masks in my future for a long time to come. Fortunately, I have a good supply of KN-95s, so I feel I'm doing about as well as I can on those few occasions when I do go out, while trying ti maintain social distancing).

[ac3r]

I really think masks should be obligatory when entering shops, workplaces and on public transit like they are elsewhere around the world. It's one of the best ways we can keep the number of active and new cases low. If you have two Covid-19 positive people walking around Costco doing their shopping who have no mask on, they are almost guaranteed to infect other people. The R nought of this virus is still 1.4 to 3.9 in Canada, so we really need to be careful. Not everyone is social distancing when they are out. Sometimes, it's quite frustrating to do shopping when I have to be hyper vigilant because people keep getting in my space. For every person I see with a mask, I see 2-3 or more without one.

[panamaniac]

I really think masks should be obligatory when entering shops, workplaces and on public transit like they are elsewhere around the world. It's one of the best ways we can keep the number of active and new cases low. If you have two Covid-19 positive people walking around Costco doing their shopping who have no mask on, they are almost guaranteed to infect other people. The R nought of this virus is still 1.4 to 3.9 in Canada, so we really need to be careful. Not everyone is social distancing when they are out. Sometimes, it's quite frustrating to do shopping when I have to be hyper vigilant because people keep getting in my space. For every person I see with a mask, I see 2-3 or more without one.

There will be many more “mask required” announcements in coming days, as Longo’s and T&T have now done.  I wouldn’t touch a Costco or a Walmart with a barge pole these days - it’s hard enough to maintain distance in supermarkets, without supersizing the experience.

[danbrotherston]

I really think masks should be obligatory when entering shops, workplaces and on public transit like they are elsewhere around the world. It's one of the best ways we can keep the number of active and new cases low. If you have two Covid-19 positive people walking around Costco doing their shopping who have no mask on, they are almost guaranteed to infect other people. The R nought of this virus is still 1.4 to 3.9 in Canada, so we really need to be careful. Not everyone is social distancing when they are out. Sometimes, it's quite frustrating to do shopping when I have to be hyper vigilant because people keep getting in my space. For every person I see with a mask, I see 2-3 or more without one.

I think I'm going to have to ask for a few citations here.

For one, I'm actually curious as to where you are finding these R values. I've heard lots of speculation, but no sources, and frankly, no real methodology for how to actually estimate these values.

Second, this claim that masks are "one of the best ways to keep the number of new cases low" really needs evidence, I don't know of any public health agency saying this in Canada at least, and I really know of very little data at all, to suggest this is the case.  AFAIK social distancing and isolation is still far and away the number one tool for reducing spread.

[panamaniac]

To me, masks can do no harm, so I'm all in. It certainly raises my comfort level, as something additional I can do on top of self-isolation/social distancing. It doesn't seem to be much disputed that wearing a mask might reduce the chance of infecting others, so that's reason enough for me.

[danbrotherston]

To me, masks can do no harm, so I'm all in.  It certainly raises my comfort level, as something additional I can do on top of self-isolation/social distancing.  It doesn't seem to be much disputed that wearing a mask might reduce the chance of infecting others, so that's reason enough for me.

Masks can reduce the chance of infecting others, they do little to protect oneself, but because they make most people feel better, that can change their behaviour, which means masks could do harm...

But at the end of the day, there is little to no evidence that as a public health policy (read: this is absolutely different from whether they might help a particular person or not because it depends on the effects on an entire population) they are effective or not.  Of course, data on COVID is slim, and culture matters a lot, but there is strong evidence about the efficacy of social distancing and isolation for COVID.

[tomh009]

Second, this claim that masks are "one of the best ways to keep the number of new cases low" really needs evidence, I don't know of any public health agency saying this in Canada at least, and I really know of very little data at all, to suggest this is the case.  AFAIK social distancing and isolation is still far and away the number one tool for reducing spread.

Distancing is absolutely better than a mask. But when you can't maintain that distance, as in many grocery stores, masks should likely be mandatory to keep people from spewing viruses onto others.

[danbrotherston]

Second, this claim that masks are "one of the best ways to keep the number of new cases low" really needs evidence, I don't know of any public health agency saying this in Canada at least, and I really know of very little data at all, to suggest this is the case.  AFAIK social distancing and isolation is still far and away the number one tool for reducing spread.

Distancing is absolutely better than a mask. But when you can't maintain that distance, as in many grocery stores, masks should likely be mandatory to keep people from spewing viruses onto others.

I'm just saying I'd like data showing that's actually effective. Just because it can work in an individual case, doesn't mean it's a good public health policy.

[panamaniac]

Second, this claim that masks are "one of the best ways to keep the number of new cases low" really needs evidence, I don't know of any public health agency saying this in Canada at least, and I really know of very little data at all, to suggest this is the case.  AFAIK social distancing and isolation is still far and away the number one tool for reducing spread.

Distancing is absolutely better than a mask. But when you can't maintain that distance, as in many grocery stores, masks should likely be mandatory to keep people from spewing viruses onto others.

To be clear, masks must be IN ADDITION to appropriate distancing, not in place of it.  Although you're right, it's nigh on impossible to maintain two metres at all times in a supermarket.

[danbrotherston]

Distancing is absolutely better than a mask. But when you can't maintain that distance, as in many grocery stores, masks should likely be mandatory to keep people from spewing viruses onto others.

To be clear, masks must be IN ADDITION to appropriate distancing, not in place of it.  Although you're right, it's nigh on impossible to maintain two metres at all times in a supermarket.

We can say that all you want, but what matter is what people actually do.

To be honest, it's also becoming increasingly clear that avoiding indoor spaces also reduces risk...

I wonder if CoK or St. Jacobs is working on a socially distanced outdoor market. There's lots of space if they were willing to close roads to make it easy to spread out, and being outside, I think already lowers the risk considerably.