The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

CBC is saying we've added 52 cases today. Public health has claimed that it's starting to rapidly spread through Waterloo Region, mostly linked to social gatherings: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5798434

It won't be long until we get put into the "red zone" or whatever they're calling it down.

[danbrotherston]

CBC is saying we've added 52 cases today. Public health has claimed that it's starting to rapidly spread through Waterloo Region, mostly linked to social gatherings: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5798434

It won't be long until we get put into the "red zone" or whatever they're calling it down.

We need to take action now, not later...

Other regions have already demonstrated taking actions outside of the (not very popular among health professionals, AFAI can tell) action plan. We should do so as well.

[BruceAshe]

Who makes the decision to move a PHU into a different colour? Is it the ON government with the local health unit? Does it get assessed weekly?

[tomh009]

CBC is saying we've added 52 cases today. Public health has claimed that it's starting to rapidly spread through Waterloo Region, mostly linked to social gatherings: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5798434

It won't be long until we get put into the "red zone" or whatever they're calling it down.

Our test positivity rate is well over 2.5% so I expect Waterloo Region to move to Orange whenever they do the next round of assessments.

[ac3r]

1575 new cases across the province today: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.5799141

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-11-12

Waterloo Region reported 44 new cases for today (17.3% of the active cases).  273 new cases for the week (+22), averaging 19.5% of active cases (ugh). 270 active cases (+116 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,575 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,299 (+82). 917 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to an increase of 640 active cases, and a current total of 11,271. +2,913 active cases for the week, and 98 deaths. 39,559 tests resulted in a 3.98% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.69% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 98 (+10) and the overall hospital population is 431 (+50 in the past week).

• 472 cases in Toronto: 16.3 per 100K population
  
• 448 cases in Peel: 44.8 per 100K
  
• 155 cases in York: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Ottawa: 9.1 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Durham: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Halton: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 30 cases in Hamilton
  
• 27 cases in Niagara
  
• 23 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 20 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 58 cases in Waterloo: 8.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

GTA has 1150+ cases again.

[ac3r]

Latest models show we may be hitting 6'500 cases per day by the middle of December: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5799394

[tomh009]

Latest models show we may be hitting 6'500 cases per day by the middle of December: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5799394

Yes -- with the caveat that these models are based on current situation "without further action".

I think we can be sure there will be some action taken. Whether it will be sufficient remains to be seen.

[danbrotherston]

Latest models show we may be hitting 6'500 cases per day by the middle of December: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5799394

Yes -- with the caveat that these models are based on current situation "without further action".

I think we can be sure there will be some action taken. Whether it will be sufficient remains to be seen.

I don't know, so far they've refused to take any action.  I imagine when hospitals start ordering freezer trucks we may see some movement, but honestly, it's sad how our government seem to have just given up.

It also pisses me off the lack of vision and long term planning this government has. There was zero prioritization to get schools to be safe, although it's turned out better than expected, I don't think this has anything to do with our government...and it's still not great.

But the current situation is lining up to be an extremely sad and depressing Christmas. Aside from those of us who will be locked in our homes, there will be those who are saying goodbye to their loved ones, and even worse, those who ignore the restrictions and kill their loved ones.

If we instead had strong restrictions now (or moderate restrictions earlier) we could probably have gotten to a place where Christmast could be relatively safe. But that would require planning.

[jeffster]

The major issues with this COVID crisis are people simply not following the rules and common sense. The governments have an incredibly hard job — do we shut down again and permanently kill businesses, do we continue to do what we’re doing and let nature do its thing, do we have stricter enforcement of ‘the rulez’?

I think the obvious answer is to have stricter enforcement, and some stricter rules, regarding social circles.

1) Absolute mask enforcement. If you’re in public, you’re a risk. Wear a mask. Very few exceptions, and as a asthma sufferer, this isn’t one of those exceptions (as are hearing aids, which some are using as their excuse).
2) Significants fines for people not obeying rules regards to gatherings. $800 doesn’t cut it. $10,000 will.
3) Fines for people that don’t attest to their condition or whereabouts truthfully. $10,000 should be the minimum. (‘Condition’ might include having been exposed to someone with COVID-19, but not admitting it, or not following quarantine having travelled outside the country, of meeting up with someone who has.)
4) At restaurants, for example, patrons must wear masks when speaking to waitress.
5) Stiff fine for owners of food establishments when they chin their mask.

We slowed the spread back in July and August. People have let their guard down. This is why we have what we have. Parties of any sort need to stop. It’s just not worth it.

Then again, too many selfish people out there, so I suppose we end up getting exactly what we deserve.

[danbrotherston]

The major issues with this COVID crisis are people simply not following the rules and common sense. The governments have an incredibly hard job — do we shut down again and permanently kill businesses, do we continue to do what we’re doing and let nature do its thing, do we have stricter enforcement of ‘the rulez’?

I think the obvious answer is to have stricter enforcement, and some stricter rules, regarding social circles.

1) Absolute mask enforcement. If you’re in public, you’re a risk. Wear a mask. Very few exceptions, and as a asthma sufferer, this isn’t one of those exceptions (as are hearing aids, which some are using as their excuse).
2) Significants fines for people not obeying rules regards to gatherings. $800 doesn’t cut it. $10,000 will.
3) Fines for people that don’t attest to their condition or whereabouts truthfully. $10,000 should be the minimum. (‘Condition’ might include having been exposed to someone with COVID-19, but not admitting it, or not following quarantine having travelled outside the country, of meeting up with someone who has.)
4) At restaurants, for example, patrons must wear masks when speaking to waitress.
5) Stiff fine for owners of food establishments when they chin their mask.

We slowed the spread back in July and August. People have let their guard down. This is why we have what we have. Parties of any sort need to stop. It’s just not worth it.

Then again, too many selfish people out there, so I suppose we end up getting exactly what we deserve.

I disagree with the idea that a lockdown has to kill businesses, there is no reason that we cannot provide financial support to businesses that have to shut down.

I also think (and I'm not saying you are saying this, but it seems that our Premier is), that NOT shutting down will not save these businesses either. Even if the foolish people who will keep going out during a wave of the pandemic are enough to keep businesses alive (which I suspect they are not) the fact is, many employees getting sick with COVID will also kill a small business....and possibly the employees and owners literally.

At the end of the day, our economy is about consumer confidence, and the pandemic threatens that. The way to restore it is to give people the belief and trust that the pandemic will be handled well both in terms of health and economics.

[tomh009]

I personally believe that the biggest infection vector (in Ontario, at least) currently is private social gatherings. I do wish we had some good data from contact tracing to clarify this; if they have some data about this, they haven't been sharing much.

Unfortunately, private social gatherings are one of the hardest things for the government to control. A full lockdown -- essentially self-isolation for everyone -- would do it, but we didn't go that far even in the spring. Really, this is simple for people to do, but apparently too many people really don't care (it's hard to imagine that very many people would be unaware of this risk or of the rampaging infections).

[danbrotherston]

I personally believe that the biggest infection vector (in Ontario, at least) currently is private social gatherings. I do wish we had some good data from contact tracing to clarify this; if they have some data about this, they haven't been sharing much.

Unfortunately, private social gatherings are one of the hardest things for the government to control. A full lockdown -- essentially self-isolation for everyone -- would do it, but we didn't go that far even in the spring. Really, this is simple for people to do, but apparently too many people really don't care (it's hard to imagine that very many people would be unaware of this risk or of the rampaging infections).

This is a fair point.

However, part of it is around messaging.  Even if we didn't do an actual lockdown, shutting down bars and restaurants would make it clear that we are not to be seeing other people right now...

All this, well bars are fine, and groups of 10 but with some conditions is fine...leads people to make bad choices.

Certainly there are some stupid people who will always be stupid, but most people just go the way the wind is blowing, and right now we're being told to walk into the wind--if you'll excuse the metaphor.

[jeffster]

I disagree with the idea that a lockdown has to kill businesses, there is no reason that we cannot provide financial support to businesses that have to shut down.

I also think (and I'm not saying you are saying this, but it seems that our Premier is), that NOT shutting down will not save these businesses either. Even if the foolish people who will keep going out during a wave of the pandemic are enough to keep businesses alive (which I suspect they are not) the fact is, many employees getting sick with COVID will also kill a small business....and possibly the employees and owners literally.

At the end of the day, our economy is about consumer confidence, and the pandemic threatens that. The way to restore it is to give people the belief and trust that the pandemic will be handled well both in terms of health and economics.

Businesses have already shut down. The government can only help so much. There are a lot of business that stay in business by the skin of their teeth.

I don’t think people going out is a major issue, but it is people not wearing protection is a huge part of the problem. If working at a small establishment, and someone comes in without a mask, then the workers are at risk.

On thing for sure, we need to better improve contact tracing.

And I agree the government could do more an many circumstances. I still don’t understand the generosity for people who had very low income jobs (making more on EI or previously CERB than when working) yet failing those that had OK or good paying jobs, and being OK with them losing 50% or more of their income.

Example, if my kid losses his job, his income goes from $400/week to $500/week. If I lose my job, I go from $1,200/week t0 $575/week. Not right.

[ac3r]

I personally believe that the biggest infection vector (in Ontario, at least) currently is private social gatherings. I do wish we had some good data from contact tracing to clarify this; if they have some data about this, they haven't been sharing much.

Unfortunately, private social gatherings are one of the hardest things for the government to control. A full lockdown -- essentially self-isolation for everyone -- would do it, but we didn't go that far even in the spring. Really, this is simple for people to do, but apparently too many people really don't care (it's hard to imagine that very many people would be unaware of this risk or of the rampaging infections).

This seems to be the case. But as you said, it'd be hard to enforce this. I do not see how we could achieve it over here. It is simple to do in principle, but not in actual practice. It was possible in countries like China when they were able to put massive amounts of police on the streets and watch CCTV, Italy when they had the Carabinieri keeping people inside, blocking highways and NYC which has a police force that rivals many militaries of the world. It was simple to do there and they would fine you really high if you wanted to disobey the rules. I'm not sure how well we could keep people inside and away from each other here, though, without high fines and police out there making sure people aren't throwing private gatherings.