The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

What powers does the officer of public health have to enforce quarantine on individuals?

[taylortbb]

What powers does the officer of public health have to enforce quarantine on individuals?

They have the power to fine, and possibly arrest, those breaking quarantine. But first they have to know they're doing so, and enforcement leads to lying.

People lying about wearing masks is already causing problems for public health. Calls where people swear they wore their mask religiously at work, likely because they're afraid they'll be fined if they admit they were hanging out with their coworkers in the break room maskless. But public health is so overwhelmed they're not going to start contact tracing if the person says they were masked, because they simply don't have the bandwidth to contact trace everyone.

It's unfortunately a real balance between legal enforcement of these rules, and ability to contact trace. It's not like public health has the resources to go visit everyone in isolation, there's almost 20k active cases in Ontario right now. So they have to depend on people self-reporting honestly about their location for the cases they do contact trace.

[tomh009]

I really think the #1 problem is the social interactions at home, especially with larger groups.

There have not been all that many workplace outbreaks in recent months.

There are currently 29 outbreaks in Waterloo region. I think that’s more than a few.

I never said "a few". There are nine open workplace outbreaks, with a total of 50 cases. That's less than 5% of the total cases since the beginning of the month. To me, that does not look like our primary problem area.

[tomh009]

Edit: Waterloo Region may be moving to Grey as soon as Monday. Dr. Wang is asking the public to prepare for an announcement tomorrow: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5845422

If Waterloo goes gray (or purple in my tables), I expect that Durham, Guelph, Halton and Hamilton will do the same as they are doing even worse than we are.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-12-17
Waterloo Region reported 65 new cases for today (13.3% of the active cases).  497 new cases for the week (+8), averaging 15.9% of active cases. 482 active cases and+89 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 2,432 new cases today, up 500 cases in just three days. A seven-day average of 2,026 (+64). 2,009 recoveries and 23 deaths translated to an increase of 400 active cases, and a current total of 17,484. +1,251 active cases for the week and 187 deaths. 58,178 tests resulted in a 4.18% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.77% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.56% for the preceding seven.

263 patients in ICU (+7) with a total hospital population of 919 (+90 in the past week).

• 190 cases in Windsor-Essex: 48.9 per 100K
  
• 434 cases in Peel: 31.4 per 100K
  
• 737 cases in Toronto: 25.2 per 100K
  
• 142 cases in Hamilton: 24.5 per 100K
  
• 65 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 23.9 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Brant County: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Halton: 19.0 per 100K
  
• 209 cases in York: 18.8 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Southwestern: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Huron Perth: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Middlesex-London: 15.6 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Waterloo: 12.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 73 cases in Durham: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Niagara: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Eastern Ontario: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 8.7 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 70 cases in Ottawa: 7.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 3.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-18 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	207	127.2	32.7	+46%
Peel	361	446.3	32.3	-4%
Toronto	691	592.3	20.2	+31%
York	296	192.6	17.4	+13%
Hamilton	126	97.7	16.9	+25%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	51	42.7	15.7	+19%
Durham	89	80.1	12.4	+13%
Halton	57	65.8	12.0	+4%
Waterloo	84	70.0	11.3	+7%
Southwestern	37	21.9	11.0	+42%
Brant County	3	14.6	10.7	+17%
Huron Perth	6	10.5	10.7	+34%
Niagara	47	47.5	10.6	+22%
Eastern Ontario	16	19.4	9.6	-35%
Middlesex-London	30	37.2	9.2	-20%
Simcoe-Muskoka	61	43.6	8.1	+24%
Kingston Frontenac	9	12.7	6.2	-4%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	13	8.9	5.2	-33%
Ottawa	52	41.6	4.2	+6%

[tomh009]

The OHA board (whose primary concern is the hospital capacity) is recommending a lockdown for all regions with over 40 cases per 100K (presumably per week). This threshold would trigger a lockdown in every region in my previous post, bar Ottawa and Leeds Grenville, and include just about all mid-sized and larger cities (Sarnia, Peterborough, North Bay, Sudbury and Thunder Bay would escape the lockdown, I believe).

My personal prediction for today's provincial decision is that we'll see a small number of additional regions locked down (probably at least Durham and Hamilton) -- and then additional restrictions in both the red zone and in the lockdown zone.

As you can see from the data, the current mild lockdown has not slowed down the increases in Windsor or York -- or even Toronto. Some specific additional restrictions are needed, but I have no guesses as to what those might be.

As an aside, Waterloo Region is not doing so badly as the average is still at 70, and while the weekly trend is up, it's only up by 7%. If you look at the details, 100 of our recent new cases are from two LTC/retirement homes. The RH/LTC outbreaks are not as widespread as before, but it's still disappointing to see those two facilities letting things get out of hand when the results were highly visible last time around.

[ac3r]

Some significant news out today...

COVID-19 vaccine expected to arrive in Waterloo region Dec. 23: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5847378

Ford government mulling COVID-19 lockdown in southern Ontario starting Boxing Day, sources say: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.5846927

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-12-18
Waterloo Region reported 83 new cases for today (17.0% of the active cases).  494 new cases for the week (-3), averaging 15.2% of active cases. 520 active cases and +87 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,989 tests per day for the past week, for an average positivity of 3.61%.

Ontario reported 2,290 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,089 (+63). 1,992 recoveries and 40 deaths translated to an increase of 258 active cases, and a current total of 17,742. +1,459 active cases for the week and 182 deaths. 68,246 tests resulted in a 3.36% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.83% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.56% for the preceding seven.

261 patients in ICU (-2) with a total hospital population of 877 (+69 in the past week).

• 207 cases in Windsor-Essex: 53.2 per 100K
  
• 296 cases in York: 26.7 per 100K
  
• 361 cases in Peel: 26.1 per 100K
  
• 691 cases in Toronto: 23.6 per 100K
  
• 126 cases in Hamilton: 21.8 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 18.8 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Southwestern: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Durham: 13.8 per 100K
  
• 84 cases in Waterloo: 13.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 61 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Niagara: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Halton: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Middlesex-London: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Brant County: 2.2 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-12-19
Waterloo Region reported 77 new cases for today (14.6% of the active cases). 519 new cases for the week (+25), averaging 15.6% of active cases. 539 active cases and +112 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 2,357 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,159 (+70). 1,865 recoveries and 27 deaths translated to an increase of 465 active cases, and a current total of 18,207. +1,986 active cases for the week and 192 deaths. 67,207 tests resulted in a 3.51% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.92% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.53% for the preceding seven.

256 patients in ICU (-5) with a total hospital population of 895 (+40 in the past week).

• 170 cases in Windsor-Essex: 43.7 per 100K
  
• 448 cases in Peel: 32.4 per 100K
  
• 118 cases in Niagara: 26.3 per 100K
  
• 93 cases in Middlesex-London: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 665 cases in Toronto: 22.7 per 100K
  
• 118 cases in Hamilton: 20.4 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Brant County: 16.2 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Durham: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 15.8 per 100K
  
• 174 cases in York: 15.7 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in Southwestern: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Waterloo: 13.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 72 cases in Halton: 13.1 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 12.4 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Ottawa: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-20 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	151	132.8	34.1	+35%
Peel	468	448.3	32.4	-1%
Toronto	486	589.5	20.1	+18%
York	326	202.2	18.2	+20%
Hamilton	88	98.6	17.0	+17%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	48	43.2	15.9	+14%
Niagara	128	60.1	13.4	+47%
Durham	82	82.3	12.7	+14%
Halton	97	68.9	12.6	+15%
Waterloo	91	72.8	11.8	+14%
Southwestern	25	22.7	11.3	+31%
Middlesex-London	80	45.4	11.2	+33%
Huron Perth	14	10.6	10.8	+24%
Brant County	5	14.4	10.6	+4%
Eastern Ontario	22	18.5	9.1	-39%
Simcoe-Muskoka	62	47.1	8.7	+29%
Thunder Bay	8	9.7	6.5	-3%
Kingston Frontenac	13	12.8	6.2	-1%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	3	8.3	4.8	-61%
Ottawa	38	41.2	4.1	+0%

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-12-20
Waterloo Region reported 86 new cases for today (15.7% of the active cases).  553 new cases for the week (+44), averaging 15.9% of active cases. 574 active cases, +148 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 2,316 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,250 (+91). 1,931 recoveries and 25 deaths translated to an increase of 360 active cases, and a current total of 18,567. +2,363 active cases for the week and 201 deaths. 69,412 tests resulted in a 3.34% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.98% for the past seven days, as compared to 3.47% for the preceding seven -- in spite of an average of 4,000 more tests per day.

261 patients in ICU (+5).

• 151 cases in Windsor-Essex: 38.8 per 100K
  
• 468 cases in Peel: 33.9 per 100K
  
• 326 cases in York: 29.4 per 100K
  
• 128 cases in Niagara: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 80 cases in Middlesex-London: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 97 cases in Halton: 17.7 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 17.6 per 100K
  
• 486 cases in Toronto: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 88 cases in Hamilton: 15.2 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in Waterloo: 14.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 14 cases in Huron Perth: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Durham: 12.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Southwestern: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Eastern Ontario: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Thunder Bay: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Ottawa: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Brant County: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 1.8 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

Province wide 28 day minimum lockdown starting on Christmas Eve: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5849274

[panamaniac]

Province wide 28 day minimum lockdown starting on Christmas Eve: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5849274

What is "minimum lockdown"?  And, whatever it is, why are they waiting so long to impose it?  It's like they want everyone out scurrying around the shops to spread the virus as much as possible before the restrictions set in.

[danbrotherston]

Province wide 28 day minimum lockdown starting on Christmas Eve: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5849274

What is "minimum lockdown"?  And, whatever it is, why are they waiting so long to impose it?  It's like they want everyone out scurrying around the shops to spread the virus as much as possible before the restrictions set in.

Indeed.  This bugs me so much because it speaks directly to priorities.  It is more important to certain people that we spend money at Christmas than that we see family.  Did I say priorities, I meant values.