The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-23 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	100	25.7	145	37.3	-50%
Peel	422	30.5	512	37.0	-26%
Toronto	708	24.2	838	28.6	-17%
Niagara	94	21.0	126	28.2	-45%
Lambton	15	11.5	31	23.4	-42%
York	220	19.8	244	22.0	-25%
Huron Perth	14	14.3	21	21.8	-18%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	61	22.4	56	20.5	+9%
Middlesex-London	55	13.6	79	19.5	-29%
Waterloo	86	13.9	113	18.4	-20%
Eastern Ontario	29	14.3	33	16.5	-30%
Hamilton	107	18.5	90	15.6	-20%
Durham	68	10.5	93	14.4	-35%
Halton	77	14.0	72	13.1	-0%
Simcoe-Muskoka	87	16.1	69	12.7	+5%
Chatham-Kent	8	7.5	13	12.5	-42%
Southwestern Ontario	21	10.5	24	12.1	-13%
Ottawa	101	10.2	113	11.4	-32%
Thunder Bay	21	14.0	16	10.7	+153%
Brant	9	6.6	13	9.6	-84%

[tomh009]

They're already facing up to 11 million dollars in charges thus far, so I don't think too many things are going to scare them apart from actual arrests or something (if the police can even do that in this case).

Superior Court orders Trinity Bible Chapel to comply with COVID restrictions
https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-new...ns-3287587

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-01-23

Waterloo Region reported 90 new cases today (10.3% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday, for a total of 120); 689 new cases for the week (-35), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 861 active cases, -185 in the last seven days.

The next testing report will be on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 2,359 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,603 (-100). 3,025 recoveries and 52 deaths translated to a drop of 718 active cases and a new total of 24,545. -4,073 active cases for the week and 413 deaths (59 per day). 63,453 tests for a positivity rate of 3.72%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.83% for the past seven days, compared to 5.51% for the preceding seven.

395 patients in ICU (+12 today, -2 for the week) and a total hospital population of 1,501 (-131 for the week).

• 422 cases in Peel: 30.5 per 100K
  
• 100 cases in Windsor-Essex: 25.7 per 100K
  
• 708 cases in Toronto: 24.2 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 22.4 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in Niagara: 21.0 per 100K
  
• 220 cases in York: 19.8 per 100K
  
• 107 cases in Hamilton: 18.5 per 100K
  
• 87 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Eastern Ontario: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Huron Perth: 14.3 per 100K
  
• 77 cases in Halton: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Thunder Bay: 14.0 per 100K
  
• 86 cases in Waterloo: 13.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 55 cases in Middlesex-London: 13.6 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Lambton: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Durham: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Ottawa: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Chatham-Kent: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Brant: 6.6 per 100K
  

[plam]

It seems like the province wide estimated R_e would be useful to track here also. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

[ac3r]

Superior Court orders Trinity Bible Chapel to comply with COVID restrictions
https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-new...ns-3287587

Trinity Bible Chapel had other ideas:



Worth noting this photo was taken by a member of the Ontario government who represents Perth County. The courts can order all the shit they want, but their orders are obviously meaningless in practice.

[taylortbb]

The courts can order all the shit they want, but their orders are obviously meaningless in practice.

I think the church is likely about to discover that contempt of court was not a good idea. While I didn't think their charter challenge was going anywhere, clearly there were lawyers that did. However, courts do not look favourably on plaintiffs that don't abide by the court's orders.

WRPS may have been hesitant to enforce lockdown orders strictly, for fear of giving them a platform. I doubt that will extend to contempt of court.

[neonjoe]

The courts can order all the shit they want, but their orders are obviously meaningless in practice.

I think the church is likely about to discover that contempt of court was not a good idea. While I didn't think their charter challenge was going anywhere, clearly there were lawyers that did. However, courts do not look favourably on plaintiffs that don't abide by the court's orders.

WRPS may have been hesitant to enforce lockdown orders strictly, for fear of giving them a platform. I doubt that will extend to contempt of court.

Man wow, I am wondering if anti mask sympathizers are now filling this church instead of the congregation. When our church was open it was pretty strict and everyone was masked or asked to stay home. The bishop declared that the holy day obligations were to be suspended until further notice.

[ac3r]

It's possible, though a lot of their desire to reopen seems to be based around religion. You can find their justifications posted on their website: https://trinitybiblechapel.ca/here-we-st...must-meet/

The tl;dr is that they love God but feel they must meet in church (with no masks), human lives be damned. They've reopened 3 times now and are facing over 10 million dollars in fines, all of the elders charged with potential prison time and they still don't care.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-01-24

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases today -- yes, only 35 -- (4.1% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday, either, for a total of 120); 626 new cases for the week (-63), averaging 10.1% of active cases. 783 active cases, -205 in the last seven days.

The next testing report will be on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 2,417 new cases today with a seven-day average of 2,459 (-144). 2,759 recoveries and 50 deaths translated to a drop of 392 active cases and a new total of 24,153. -4,740 active cases for the week and 394 deaths (56 per day). 48,947 tests for a positivity rate of 4.94%. The positivity rate is averaging 4.73% for the past seven days, compared to 5.41% for the preceding seven.

392 patients in ICU (-3 today, -3 for the week).

• 91 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 33.5 per 100K
  
• 404 cases in Peel: 29.2 per 100K
  
• 121 cases in Niagara: 27.0 per 100K
  
• 785 cases in Toronto: 26.8 per 100K
  
• 215 cases in York: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 73 cases in Windsor-Essex: 18.8 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Thunder Bay: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 98 cases in Hamilton: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Chatham-Kent: 16.0 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Halton: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Waterloo: 12.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 79 cases in Durham: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Middlesex-London: 11.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 99 cases in Ottawa: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Lambton: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.4 per 100K
  

[ijmorlan]

Man wow, I am wondering if anti mask sympathizers are now filling this church instead of the congregation. When our church was open it was pretty strict and everyone was masked or asked to stay home. The bishop declared that the holy day obligations were to be suspended until further notice.

Churches are different from one another. This kind of anti-mask attitude, not to mention many other anti-science, anti-education, and anti-knowledge attitudes, are not something I see in the churches I have regularly attended. Anything called a “bible chapel” is relatively likely to exhibit these problems, although even in that group there is probably a lot of variation. So I find it entirely believable that the people involved are their actual congregation.

[tomh009]

Yes, all depends on the particular church. The more conventional churches (Catholic, Lutheran and Church of England) will tend to follow scientific guidance but some others do not.

Oh yes, Pastafarian churches, though not an old religion, will also be promoting the use of masks and following other scientific guidance.

[jeffster]

Yes, all depends on the particular church. The more conventional churches (Catholic, Lutheran and Church of England) will tend to follow scientific guidance but some others do not.

Oh yes, Pastafarian churches, though not an old religion, will also be promoting the use of masks and following other scientific guidance.

The police and by-law could have stopped this. They didn't even show up at this event. I guess charging a lot of _____ (1 syllable, 5 letter word, begins with w) isn't a priority.

[jeffster]

In other news, on the positive side, Quebec doctors are trying an old medication for covid-19 with some good result; name of drug is colchicine. Here is the article:
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/quebe...-1.5279310

[plam]

In other news, on the positive side, Quebec doctors are trying an old medication for covid-19 with some good result; name of drug is colchicine. Here is the article:
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/mobile/quebe...-1.5279310

Worth investigating but there's no preprint yet and the confidence intervals are not quite good enough yet either.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-25 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	365	26.4	490	35.5	-29%
Windsor-Essex	85	21.9	134	34.5	-55%
Toronto	727	24.8	824	28.1	-15%
Niagara	82	18.3	122	27.3	-39%
Lambton	19	14.5	28	21.5	-51%
Huron Perth	29	29.6	21	21.3	-15%
York	157	14.1	234	21.1	-27%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	35	12.9	57	21.0	+9%
Middlesex-London	46	11.4	73	18.1	-39%
Waterloo	39	6.3	104	16.9	-37%
Hamilton	55	9.5	88	15.2	-20%
Eastern Ontario	11	5.4	30	14.8	-49%
Durham	62	9.6	90	13.9	-34%
Chatham-Kent	22	20.8	14	13.5	-4%
Halton	54	9.8	71	12.9	-5%
Southwestern Ontario	28	14.0	24	12.2	-5%
Simcoe-Muskoka	41	7.6	65	12.0	-14%
Ottawa	51	5.1	107	10.7	-37%
Thunder Bay	5	3.3	16	10.7	+59%
Brant	9	6.6	13	9.3	-68%
Ontario total					-24%