The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-04-12

Waterloo Region reported 94 -- ouch! -- new cases for today (19.0% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 52; 505 new cases for the week (+42), averaging 16.4% of active cases. 541 active cases, +168 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

An average of 2,993 doses of vaccine administered over the past three days, with a seven-day average of 2,802. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-08-02 (-12 days over the weekend).

Ontario reported 4,401 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,782 (+209). 2,445 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 1,941 active cases and a new total of 34,758. +9,271 active cases for the week and 117 deaths (17 per day). 47,929 tests for a positivity rate of 9.18%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.14% for the past seven days, compared to 5.67% for the preceding seven.

619 patients in ICU (+14 today, +125 for the week).

74,722 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 95,546. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-21 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 41 days (-3 today).

• 772 cases in Peel: 55.9 per 100K
  
• 564 cases in York: 50.8 per 100K
  
• 1,282 cases in Toronto: 43.8 per 100K
  
• 224 cases in Durham: 34.7 per 100K
  
• 339 cases in Ottawa: 34.1 per 100K
  
• 147 cases in Niagara: 32.8 per 100K
  
• 177 cases in Halton: 32.3 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 28.7 per 100K
  
• 112 cases in Middlesex-London: 27.7 per 100K
  
• 135 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Hamilton: 22.3 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Brant: 22.1 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Eastern Ontario: 18.7 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 16.5 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Windsor-Essex: 16.5 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Waterloo: 14.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 17 cases in Lambton: 13.0 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 10.0 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Huron Perth: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Thunder Bay: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Sudbury: 5.4 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 populationb

[taylortbb]

74,722 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 95,546. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-21 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 41 days (-3 today).

Is that 70% of the eligible population? Meaning those age 16+. Or is it 70% of the entire population?

[ac3r]

The region is now launching a mobile rapid test project in the region, primarily aimed at testing business workers. They're repurposing old GRT buses for this and will be able to test up to 3000 people per week:

https://staysafescreen.ca/

https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...on-3623630

[tomh009]

74,722 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 95,546. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-21 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 41 days (-3 today).

Is that 70% of the eligible population? Meaning those age 16+. Or is it 70% of the entire population?

70% of total, which is over 80% of eligible.

But this is the dose count, and some people are getting two doses already, so the percentage of people will be less. Given these issues, I picked 70% as an arbitrary benchmark: it's high enough that it should make a significant dent in the spread. But, no, we won't be done at that point yet.

[danbrotherston]

Is that 70% of the eligible population? Meaning those age 16+. Or is it 70% of the entire population?

70% of total, which is over 80% of eligible.

But this is the dose count, and some people are getting two doses already, so the percentage of people will be less. Given these issues, I picked 70% as an arbitrary benchmark: it's high enough that it should make a significant dent in the spread. But, no, we won't be done at that point yet.

If I understand correctly, the number getting a second dose right now will be quite small until May at least, if not June?

[nms]

A bit of a black eye for Telus (via KitchenerToday.com):

Officials with the Region of Waterloo took to Twitter on Saturday to alert residents of an issue facing our local COVID-19 vaccination online booking system. 

According to a tweet from the region, the issue stemmed from the blocking of some notifications to mobile text numbers by cellular service provider Telus due to the "perceived volume of texts being sent". Once the service provider was notified of the problem, the region said the block was "immediately removed" for subscribers by Telus.
As a result, some pre-registered individuals who chose text for their preferred avenue of contact from the region may not have received their notification to book an appointment. The Region of Waterloo has stated they are not able to determine which Telus users did not receive their notification, as their booking system indicated that all messages were sent without issue.
The region has since confirmed that issue has been resolved, though pre-registered individuals who have been waiting over four weeks for an invitation to book their appointment from the region are being encouraged to pre-register for the shot once again. In a release sent to 570NEWS, regional officials clarified that notifications to book a vaccine appointment are based on priority, not pre-registration date. Those who pre-register can expect an invitation to book an appointment within four weeks.

Those eligible for the vaccine who are looking to pre-register can find further information on the Region of Waterloo website. Those who need help completing the online registration form can contact the region's information line at 519-575-4400 for assistance in over 200 languages.

"We regret the anxiety and any delay this has caused residents of Waterloo Region in getting an appointment for the vaccine," said Deputy Police Chief and head of the Waterloo Region Vaccine Distribution Task Force Shirley Hilton. "Members of the public can be assured that appointments will be available when they receive notification to book an appointment. You have not missed your opportunity to get the vaccine."

This explains the radio silence that I had for the last four weeks when I registered an older relative for a vaccine four weeks and half weeks ago and used my Telus number as the contact number.  It caused four weeks of anxiety on my end as I had to explain every day that no, I had no idea while I hadn't been contacted yet while it seemed as if everyone else around them was getting contacted and vaccinated despite having registered after I did.

[tomh009]

70% of total, which is over 80% of eligible.

But this is the dose count, and some people are getting two doses already, so the percentage of people will be less. Given these issues, I picked 70% as an arbitrary benchmark: it's high enough that it should make a significant dent in the spread. But, no, we won't be done at that point yet.

If I understand correctly, the number getting a second dose right now will be quite small until May at least, if not June?

It's small, yes. As of yesterday, 3.214M doses have been administered, to 2.881M people. So, only 330K people have had both shots. And I don't think that's going up quickly at the moment.

[megabytephreak]

If I understand correctly, the number getting a second dose right now will be quite small until May at least, if not June?

It's small, yes. As of yesterday, 3.214M doses have been administered, to 2.881M people. So, only 330K people have had both shots. And I don't think that's going up quickly at the moment.

Yeah, it's something like 1500/day for second doses in the last few weeks from what I can tell.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-04-13 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	613	44.4	666	48.2	+22%
York	519	46.8	425	38.3	+49%
Toronto	1,016	34.7	1,058	36.1	+27%
Durham	196	30.3	203	31.5	+61%
Middlesex-London	83	20.5	116	28.7	+19%
Ottawa	214	21.5	246	24.7	+42%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	78	28.7	67	24.4	+25%
Niagara	103	23.0	106	23.6	+36%
Halton	157	28.6	125	22.7	+61%
Hamilton	161	27.8	118	20.4	+42%
Brant	27	19.9	28	20.2	+17%
Eastern Ontario	32	15.8	36	18.0	+27%
Simcoe-Muskoka	102	18.9	94	17.4	+57%
Windsor-Essex	42	10.8	46	11.8	+3%
Waterloo	121	19.6	71	11.5	+76%
Lambton	5	3.8	15	11.3	+46%
Southwestern Ontario	30	15.0	20	9.8	+70%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	19	11.2	16	9.2	+55%
Northwestern	13	14.8	7	8.0	+103%
Kingston Frontenac	3	1.5	15	7.1	+49%
Sudbury	44	11.3	27	6.8	+11%
Thunder Bay	5	3.3	9	5.7	+11%
Huron Perth	1	1.0	5	5.5	+44%
Chatham-Kent	7	6.6	5	5.1	-16%
Ontario total					+34%

Waterloo Region is not looking pretty. 

[Rainrider22]

We look a whole lot better than other major population centres.... GTA..

[Chris]

70% of total, which is over 80% of eligible.

But this is the dose count, and some people are getting two doses already, so the percentage of people will be less. Given these issues, I picked 70% as an arbitrary benchmark: it's high enough that it should make a significant dent in the spread. But, no, we won't be done at that point yet.

If I understand correctly, the number getting a second dose right now will be quite small until May at least, if not June?

Just for reference. My parents (70's) first shot was April 4 and their second is scheduled for July 25.

[tomh009]

If I understand correctly, the number getting a second dose right now will be quite small until May at least, if not June?

Just for reference. My parents (70's) first shot was April 4 and their second is scheduled for July 25.

The timing of the second shots is really dependent on supplies. The odds are excellent that your parents get theirs in May or June.

[danbrotherston]

Just for reference. My parents (70's) first shot was April 4 and their second is scheduled for July 25.

The timing of the second shots is really dependent on supplies. The odds are excellent that your parents get theirs in May or June.

Is there a source for this?

I thought the goal with extending to 3 months was to get everyone a first shot first. In June and certainly in May many will still be waiting for a first shot. I wouldn't expect them to be bringing those shots up until there was excess supply.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd be extatic if there was excess supply in May...but I'm not putting any money on that bet.

I mean, we're almost half way through April and we aren't even broadly vaccinating 50+ at this point.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-04-13

Waterloo Region reported a new third-wave high of 106 new cases for today (19.1% of the active cases) and 11 more for yesterday for a total of 105; 551 new cases for the week (+46), averaging 16.4% of active cases. 607 active cases, +201 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,476 daily tests for the past week, for a rather high positivity rate of 5.33%.

3,200 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 2,905. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the total regional population on 2021-07-29 (-5 days).

Ontario reported 3,670 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,868 (+86). 2,573 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to an increase of 1,082 active cases and a new total of 35,840. +9,272 active cases for the week and 124 deaths (18 per day). 42,167 tests for a positivity rate of 8.70%. The positivity rate is averaging 7.21% for the past seven days, compared to 5.91% for the preceding seven.

626 patients in ICU (+7 today, +116 for the week) and a total of 1,822 patients hospitalized (+661 for the week).

95,692 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 98,331. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-29 (-2 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 39 days (-2 today).

• 519 cases in York: 46.8 per 100K
  
• 613 cases in Peel: 44.4 per 100K
  
• 1,016 cases in Toronto: 34.7 per 100K
  
• 196 cases in Durham: 30.3 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 28.7 per 100K
  
• 157 cases in Halton: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 161 cases in Hamilton: 27.8 per 100K
  
• 103 cases in Niagara: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 214 cases in Ottawa: 21.5 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Middlesex-London: 20.5 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Brant: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 121 cases in Waterloo: 19.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 102 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 18.9 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Eastern Ontario: 15.8 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 15.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Northwestern: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Sudbury: 11.3 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 11.2 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Windsor-Essex: 10.8 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Chatham-Kent: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Thunder Bay: 3.3 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

The timing of the second shots is really dependent on supplies. The odds are excellent that your parents get theirs in May or June.

Is there a source for this?

I thought the goal with extending to 3 months was to get everyone a first shot first. In June and certainly in May many will still be waiting for a first shot. I wouldn't expect them to be bringing those shots up until there was excess supply.

I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd be extatic if there was excess supply in May...but I'm not putting any money on that bet.

I mean, we're almost half way through April and we aren't even broadly vaccinating 50+ at this point.

A source for the odds? No, the government doesn't publish odds.

But, let's do a bit of math. As of yesterday, about 17.7% of Ontario residents have had a single dose, and 2.5% have had two, for a total of 20.2%. The latter number is going up slowly enough that we can ignore it for the purposes of the back-of-the-envelope calculation here.

Now, Ontario is averaging almost 100K people per day (98,331/day for the past week) so let's use that number -- the numbers might yet increase depending on vaccine supplies but let's use the current rate. At 100K/day, it's enough for 1.8M in April, 3.1M in May and 3.0M in June: that's an incremental 53.6% of the total population by the end of May, for a total of 73.8%. By the time we get to 60%+ of the population, I fully expect that first shots will slow down as you start dealing with getting people out, whether it's people without Internet, hesitant people, busy people, whatever. So, my personal assessment is that in June we would be doing a significant number of second doses.

But that's assuming a supply of 9.1M doses for Ontario in Q2. The feds' plan is for a delivery of 35M doses to Canada in the quarter, which should translate to about 14M for Ontario, about 65% more than the calculation above. Add 5M to the above numbers, and we are well above the point of 100% first doses -- and we are not vaccinating kids, and we won't get to 100% on adults, either.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal...doses.html