The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

I'm not entirely convinced by Mr Outhit's analysis. Yes, there were about 60,000 surplus doses (they need about 20,000 or more to keep up the current pace of vaccinations)

Yes, there is now big inventory of vaccines, but those did not show up until the end of June (the inventory chart shows as June 20th); setting up additional vaccination sites or activities takes time. The vaccination pace went up about 30% from mid-June until just before the Canada Day holiday weekend.

Moderna hesitancy? Yes, most of the inventory is Moderna, but that's because of what the new shipments were. I personally haven't heard of anyone complaining about Moderna. But I see no evidence that there is any significant Moderna hesitancy. (I have AZ+Moderna myself.)

Staffing clinics will still surely be a challenge, though. I do hope that they are pushing hard to get more doses delivered through pharmacies, family doctors and urgent care clinics.

I mean, yes, generally I'd be suspicious too lol.

Were these doses not expected? I mean, we could blame the province as well. But the region should have been preparing (and claimed to have been preparing) to give more doses. At one point they claimed they would be able to very quickly ramp up to 10k per day. They even claimed to be testing that by having days where they gave out a larger proportion of their doses.

Plus what you had mentioned about communication.

I still believe that area arenas and community centres are a great option to reach 'hard to reach' citizens. This is especially true of community centres - get neighbourhood associations to help reach those, and open up the centres for vaccinations. You'd be hitting a very different population, which is a good thing.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 73.6
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 51.2
• Porcupine Health Unit 24.0
• Peterborough Public Health 14.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 14.1
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 13.8
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 12.3
• Lambton Public Health 12.2
• Halton Region Public Health 11.0
• Niagara Region Public Health 10.6

• TOTAL ONTARIO 9.6

Seems that Waterloo Region is having a hard time dropping much further. As I mentioned previously, the region needs to do a better job at reaching out to residents that have been missed.

[taylortbb]

We've officially hit 80.1% of adults with 1 dose, https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...mid_=32238 . We're now ahead of the province, which is at 78.9% overall.

For comparison, Toronto is at 78.0% of adults, and Peel is at 78.8% of adults.

[jeffster]

We've officially hit 80.1% of adults with 1 dose, https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...mid_=32238 . We're now ahead of the province, which is at 78.9% overall.

For comparison, Toronto is at 78.0% of adults, and Peel it as 78.8% of adults.

I think Ontario is 78.9% of 12+, vs 80.1% for RoW 18+. Correct with Toronto though. A real problem in Toronto (though unsure how badly it has affected them, due to their large population) are huge neighbourhoods with very low rates (we're talking under 40%). I would love to know if their cases are concentrated in low vaccination neighbourhoods. Taylor-Massey, for example, is 39.7% vaccinated, and is very close to the core. If places like Toronto can't figure out how (to vaccinate) or why these areas are under vaccinated, you'll likely see a spike at some point, just like what we have experienced (and continue to) in the region.

[plam]

For what it's worth one of my grad students was in general hesitant and then he was looking for Pfizer rather than Moderna despite me saying that they're essentially equivalent... He did get a first dose of something this week though.

[Acitta]

It's now easier than ever to get your first or second dose! Walk-ins are welcomed for first AND second doses between 10 a.m. to 8 p.m at @Bingemans Conference Centre this weekend: http://bit.ly/3ANvQ9Z Don’t delay and get your vaccine this weekend!

https://twitter.com/RegionWaterloo/statu...0832050182

[taylortbb]

We've officially hit 80.1% of adults with 1 dose, https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/livin...mid_=32238 . We're now ahead of the province, which is at 78.9% overall.

For comparison, Toronto is at 78.0% of adults, and Peel it as 78.8% of adults.

I think Ontario is 78.9% of 12+, vs 80.1% for RoW 18+. Correct with Toronto though.

I was going based on https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON , which shows Ontario as 78.1% for 12+, and 78.9% for 18+.

[jeffster]

I think Ontario is 78.9% of 12+, vs 80.1% for RoW 18+. Correct with Toronto though.

I was going based on https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON , which shows Ontario as 78.1% for 12+, and 78.9% for 18+.

Interesting. Seems that the younglings almost have the same vaccination rate as the adults. Which is a good thing, because parents are doing their job.

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-07-09

Waterloo Region reported 43 new cases for today (13.1% of the active cases) and two more for yesterday for 54; 284 new cases for the week (+11 from yesterday, -73 from last week), averaging 11.5% of active cases. 315 active cases, -89 in the last seven days.

An average of 637 test/day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 6.37%, somewhat higher than a week ago but with test volumes down by 30% that is to be expected.

9,489 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,774 (previous week was 8,907). 64.69% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.10% from 7 days ago), 37.35% fully vaccinated (+1.40% from yesterday, +8.97% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 183 new cases today with a seven-day average of 192 (-2). 233 recoveries and nine deaths translated to a decrease of 59 active cases and a new total of 1,757. -418 active cases for the week and 41 deaths (six per day). 23,695 tests with a positivity rate of 0.70%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.99% for the past seven days, compared to 1.11% for the preceding seven. 151 patients in ICU (-7 today, -39 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): -76
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 3
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 174 (33% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 43
  

224,864 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 209,347 (previous week was 226,613). 68.64% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.15% from yesterday, +0.92% from 7 days ago), 44.27% fully vaccinated (+1.38% from yesterday, +9.04% from 7 days ago).

• 50 cases in Waterloo: 8.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Halton: 1.8 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Peel: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Durham: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Huron Perth: 1.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 77.7
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 48.6
• Porcupine Health Unit 20.4
• Peterborough Public Health 14.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 13.7
• Lambton Public Health 13.0
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 12.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 11.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 9.4
• Huron Perth Public Health 9.3


• TOTAL ONTARIO 9.4

[danbrotherston]

Seems like Bingemans has a lack of interest in vaccinations there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/waterloo/commen...rna_doses/

It could be moderna hesitancy, or it could also be our terrible UX on the signup page.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-07-10

Waterloo Region reported 29 new cases for today (9.2% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 44; 262 new cases for the week (-22 from yesterday, -95 from last week), averaging 11.1% of active cases. 315 active cases, -89 in the last seven days.

An average of 637 test/day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 6.37%, somewhat higher than a week ago but with test volumes down by 30% that is to be expected.

9,246 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 8,855 (previous week was 8,907). 64.69% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.10% from 7 days ago), 37.35% fully vaccinated (+1.40% from yesterday, +8.97% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 179 new cases today with a seven-day average of 188 (-4). 218 recoveries and eight deaths translated to a decrease of 47 active cases and a new total of 1,757. -403 active cases for the week and 40 deaths (six per day). 23,695 tests with a positivity rate of 0.76%. The positivity rate is averaging 0.92% for the past seven days, compared to 1.09% for the preceding seven. 147 patients in ICU (-4 today, -35 for the week) with COVID-19.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 63
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 98 (31% of variants over the past 10 days)
  
• Gamma (P.1): 61
  

207,507 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 208,919 (previous week was 220,076). 68.78% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.14% from yesterday, +0.93% from 7 days ago), 45.53% fully vaccinated (+1.26% from yesterday, +9.00% from 7 days ago).

• 32 cases in Waterloo: 5.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Hamilton: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Brant: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Peel: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Middlesex-London: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Eastern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Halton: 1.1 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

Seems like Bingemans has a lack of interest in vaccinations there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/waterloo/commen...rna_doses/

It could be moderna hesitancy, or it could also be our terrible UX on the signup page.

They are also supposed to be taking walk-ins, which don't need any UX or sign-up.

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-07-10 (posting this every Saturday).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Waterloo	32	5.2	43	6.9	-15%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	4	1.5	6	2.3	-23%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	2	2.0	-52%
Lambton	4	3.1	3	1.9	+32%
Halton	6	1.1	10	1.9	-67%
Hamilton	16	2.8	11	1.8	+42%
Middlesex-London	6	1.5	6	1.5	-42%
Niagara	4	.9	7	1.5	-63%
Peel	21	1.5	19	1.4	+48%
Kingston Frontenac	1	.5	2	1.1	+111%
Southwestern Ontario	1	.5	2	1.1	-4%
Brant	3	2.2	1	1.0	+98%
Toronto	23	.8	28	1.0	-26%
Ontario total					-22%

[jeffster]

Seems like Bingemans has a lack of interest in vaccinations there:

https://www.reddit.com/r/waterloo/commen...rna_doses/

It could be moderna hesitancy, or it could also be our terrible UX on the signup page.

They are also supposed to be taking walk-ins, which don't need any UX or sign-up.

Interesting. I had a friend that tried to sign up through the Regional site, and it said no slots were available this weekend.

Speaking of our regional site, no one from our family ever heard back from the region for the pre-reg. I know Rogers blocked all of the messages last time, but none of us are on Rogers, and two of us used email addresses. Another family member had their message blocked by Telus but that one got sorted out. As for the rest of us, we all checked out spam folders and nothing was ever there either. Doesn't matter now, as we got our shots elsewhere. But I do wonder how many other people had issues.